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Bear Market Trader | Premarket Prep GBPNZD - London session
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Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210610

Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210610

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #pre­mar­ket­prep #GBPNZD #Forex­trad­er #forex #FX #Forexlifestyle #day­trade #trade­plan #trad­ing­plan #trad­ing­forex #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life 

This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • Focus on tak­ing ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be tak­en on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day.
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Buffer trades (prof­it tar­get >1R) are allowed and encouraged
    • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
  • No social media / mes­sen­ger apps / phone calls allowed dur­ing the trad­ing window
Click to Enlarge

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

  • Price trad­ing above last month’s body but with­in range after hav­ing made a slight HH
  • Price trad­ing above last week’s body and with­in range with slight reac­tion off W1-C‑S 1.96876

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

  • Price action
    • Yes­ter­day closed as a some­what weak bull­ish Ham­mer (buy­ing wick react­ing off D1 demand) trad­ing deep­er into D1 Sup­ply clos­ing below W1-C‑S 1.96876
    • Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 3 at W1 Sup­ply and below H4 QHi
    • H4 Bear­ish Inside Bar react­ing off H4-C‑S 1.96800 with con­tin­u­a­tion down
  • Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
    • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 3/3
  • Mar­ket Profile
    • Val­ue cre­at­ed above the pre­vi­ous two over­lap­ping val­ue but still with­in over­all range
  • Dai­ly Range
    • ADR: 1006
    • ASR: 707
      • 18
    • Day
      • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.96977
      • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.96180

Sen­ti­ment

  • Loca­tions
    • W1 Sup­ply with­in val­ue at VAH
    • H4-C‑S 1.96800 with­in val­ue at W1 Supply
    • Yesterday’s range low is the same as yesterday’s low
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • LN open
      • Below Val­ue, With­in Range
    • Open dis­tance to value
      • 0.48xASR
    • Pre­mar­ket
      • H4 trad­ed and closed down above D1 demand
    • Nar­ra­tive
      • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. Asia trad­ed down. Lon­don opened with mod­er­ate imbal­ance. H4 closed down deep­er with­in H4 demand pos­si­ble start of H4 Phase 4. New­ly formed H4-C‑S 1.96642 at VAL
  • Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
    • 3
  • Hypo 1 — Return to Value
    • Nar­ra­tive: New H4-C‑S 1.96642 at VAL, H4 Phase 3, pos­si­ble H4 phase 4
    • Pre­ferred: IB tra­vers­es high­er to VAL, no exten­sion, PA rever­sal to IB exten­sion down (momen­tum). Oth­er­wise a pos­si­ble exten­sion up test­ing val­ue to failed auction.
    • Con: D1 trad­ed and closed high­er leav­ing a buy­ing wick although it could be absorp­tion with­in the distribution
  • Hypo 2 — Trend Continuation
    • Nar­ra­tive: H4 clos­ing down, pos­si­ble H4 phase 3 / 4, 
    • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish PA, IB exten­sion down (momen­tum) and sus­tained auc­tion tak­ing out LTF/H4 demand (and thus tak­ing out yesterday’s low, prefer­ably dur­ing IB), 
    • Con: trad­ing into D1 demand
  • Hypo 3 — Fad­ing the auction
    • Nar­ra­tive: vari­a­tion to Hypo 1 and 2
    • Pre­ferred: TPO struc­ture at H4 demand with­in D1 demand, PA rever­sal fad­ing the auc­tion to IB edge.
    • Con: pos­si­ble H4 phase 4
  • Hypo 4 — Mean Reversion
    • Nar­ra­tive: D1 Demand, test of yesterday’s low
    • Pre­ferred: Move down ful­fill­ing mean rever­sion cri­te­ria, strong bull­ish PA IB exten­sion up to val­ue edge
    • Con: pos­si­ble bear­ish medi­um time­frame narrative

Addi­tion­al notes

  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

  • W1-C‑S 1.96876
  • H4-C‑S 1.96642

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

  • D1-C‑D 1.96248
  • H4-C‑D 1.96050 OLD
  • H4-C‑D 1.95738 OLD

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

  • Feel­ing a bit anx­ious still

Focus Points for trad­ing development

  • Month­ly Goals
    • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
    • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
  • Week­ly Goal
    • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
    • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
  • Risk Man­age­ment
    • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
    • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
    • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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