Trade Review GBPNZD 20210305 - Bear Market Trader
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Trade Review GBPNZD 20210305

Trade Review GBPNZD 20210305

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #trad­in­gre­view #GBPNZD


How was the Entry, SL place­ment and sizing?

Large Imbal­ance at the open with near­by H4 sup­ply. IB trad­ed closed as a Bear Engulf with C extend­ing below IB. Entry after 3 TPOs down, SL place­ment sub­op­ti­mal due to the momen­tum nature of the trade thus cut­ting through for­ma­tion. This was a Non-Farm Fri­day and thus a momen­tum move would be less like­ly to play out. As such, price retraced quite quick­ly and took out SL before con­tin­u­ing slight­ly down. 

Odds enhancer: M30 Bear Engulf at M30 VWAP in UpTrend, near­by ADR 0.5 high

How was the Exit?

SL got hit due a pull­back and lack of momen­tum behind the move as men­tioned before. Price test­ed new­ly formed M30 C‑sup mul­ti­ple times before mov­ing slight­ly down. 

What would a time-based exit have done for the trade?

If I had obtained a bet­ter entry based on the pull­back in C as a 2nd chance entry (if I had the fore­sight to con­sid­er the lack of momen­tum on a Non-Farm Fri­day) this trade would have net­ted above 1R based on a time-based exit.

What could I have done better?

On a nor­mal day I believe the the­sis would have held up. Since it was­n’t: I could have 1) not trad­ed this day due to price being messy due to Non-Farm Fri­day 2) I could have poten­tial­ly opt­ed for a 2nd chance entry on the new­ly formed M30 C‑sup due to the lack of momen­tum on this par­tic­u­lar day. I will need more sta­tis­tics on this par­tic­u­lar even to back up this the­sis though which will be one of my goals for NFF from this day on. Hav­ing said that this par­tic­u­lar day would have been quite ago­niz­ing so there is a point to be made that men­tal cap­i­tal preser­va­tion could be cho­sen over a poten­tial­ly high risk trade. Will gath­er more stats to deny or con­firm this. 


On days where ranges are tighter or there is some­thing else going on like a Non-Farm Fri­day, I find that H1 price action per­forms sta­tis­ti­cal­ly bet­ter than M30/M15 combos. 

Pre­mar­ket prep on the day

Dai­ly Report Card on the day


Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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