These are my hypotheticals for today’s crude oil session. Basically the levels that I will be looking at where it has a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. Then I come up with ways I think the market will react around those levels. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my hypothesis. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I am not selling you anything. I just love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out.
Observations of the market
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- M: Big drop. Still have more than a week to go to close off the candle to give insight.
- W: Still 3 days left in the candle before close. We made a fast second-leg move we have made previously indicating a potential exhaustion. Although the markets can go against you longer than you can stay solvent so only trade based on your trading rules.
- D: Showing a nice imbalance but extended away from VWAP very fast indicating a possible return. No Demand ZOI has been created yet so will need to wait for confirmation of that first before even considering a longer-term long position.
- H4: Big Demand ZOI 8.10 — 14.10. Last leg of the move has a more than 50% retracement so there is more buying going on.
- M30: Price rejected VWAP and KC imbalance still very much in play.
- MP: Previous profile was a trend day. During the Asian session we rejected yesterday’s VAL and consequently the range as well confirming the imbalance for the moment in the market.
Hypotheticals
Hypo1:
Price Opens below PVAL and Range and we continue the extension downwards.
Entry short @ retest previous day range around 12.899, targets 12.05, 11.65, 11.05, extended targets 10.30, 8.05
Hypo2: H4 Swing Reversal, within Demand ZOI / H4 QLo. Find support above prev. Day low
Entry long around 9.05, targets 10.70, extended target 12.90
Hypo3: H4 Swing Reversal, above Demand ZOI / H4 QLo.
Entry long around 10.80, target 12.90