01082019 Thursday — Trade Plan & Journal

01082019 Thurs­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• R = Range
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• HHTF = High­er High Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical
• AD = Accu­mu­la­tion Distribution

Health review

• Week­ly goal
  • Eat more consciously 
• How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insuf­fi­cient sleep?
  • Last 3 days not a com­plete 8 hours of sleep but 7.5 which sur­pris­ing­ly I can feel in terms of how sharp I feel. Which is less sharp.
• How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quar­ter posi­tion 1st 12 2nd 2, 4= half posi­tion = 1st 25 2nd 5, 5= full posi­tion = 1st 50 2nd 10
  • 4= half posi­tion = 1st 25 2nd 5

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HHTF
  • What is the mar­ket narrative?
    • HHTF R over­bought to PB to VWAP CAS to pos­si­ble more upside on short to medi­um term
• HTF
  • Lev­els
    • Prev. High 58.807
    • PVAH 58.584
    • PPOC 58.444
    • PVAL 58.231
    • Prev. Low 57.804
  • What is the mar­ket narrative?
    • We had 50MA prove to be good sup­port in the UT and yes­ter­day we broke this by hav­ing a short DT into D TT 57.50 lev­el (which this whole move could be con­sid­ered a BO from 57.50 to PB and CAS of this same level.
    • Since we moved back into KC as part of D TT we could expect more upside on the short to medi­um term
• TTF
  • Does the Asian ses­sion show clues that align with mar­ket narrative?
    • TTF D TT with lots of AD inside the KC and short term UT  and small PA PB to 50MA
      • Expect a pos­si­ble short term down­side before medi­um to long term upside

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Long
  • HTF D TT @ LKCCAS
  • Entry around 57.95
  • Tar­gets 58.10, 58.30, 58.55
• Hypo 2 Short
  • HTF R 50MACAR
  • Entry around 58.05
  • Tar­gets 57.85, 57.60
• Hypo 3 Rotational
  • 57.70 — 58.20

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Only trade A/A+ trade ideas
  • For­ward test exper­i­men­tal trades

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 16:05
    • HHTF
      • HHTF R Over­bought PB to VWAP/200MA CAS
    • HTF
      • HTF D TT to pos­si­ble 50MACAR
    • TTF
      • Pos­si­ble TTF R
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • TTF R 200MABO as part of HTF 50MACAR
  • 16:35
    • HHTF
    • HTF
      • Move to HTF LKC pos­si­ble CAS but not look­ing con­vinc­ing as of yet
    • TTF
      • TTF R Over­sold with lots of AD going on just above LKC but look­ing like pos­si­ble absorp­tion for anoth­er leg down
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • Unclear yet
  • 17:05
    • HHTF
    • HTF
      • HTF LKCCAS
    • TTF
      • TTF R Over­sold LKCCAS + BO to UKC
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • Pos­si­ble TTF R 200MABO with tar­get HTF 50MA
  • 17:35
    • HHTF
    • HTF
      • Pos­si­ble Upper 2.0 SD CAS near 50MA plus end­ed pre­vi­ous peri­od quite bear­ish so sen­ti­ment could have changed here.
        • I will look for more bear­ish clues before get­ting in short though
    • TTF
      • TTF R 200MACAR
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • Pos­si­ble ‘bounces up the lad­der’ before hav­ing a big drop
  • 18:05
    • HHTF
      • Still above VWAP
    • HTF
      • Pos­si­ble 50MACAR @ 2.0 SD and now bias is towards the short side, pos­si­ble LKCBD to run for 200MACAS on the long term
    • TTF
      • I’ve seen this pat­tern before and am try­ing to fig­ure out if I’m remem­ber­ing it right…
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • Move down to HTFLKC pos­si­ble BD
  • 18:35
    • HHTF
      • Pos­si­ble VWAPBD
    • HTF
      • Squeeze in low­er KC, no real attempt at 50MA
    • TTF
      • PA very slow but fol­low­ing the pat­tern, still fuzzy on how this devel­ops but took a short with tar­get pre­vi­ous HTF swing low
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • Run towards HTF 200MA
  • 19:05
    • HHTF
    • HTF
      • No move yet
    • TTF
      • Things look­ing less bear­ish at the moment but still trad­ing below 200MA how­ev­er pos­si­ble BO here
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • Unclear, might have to scratch my short position
  • 19:35
    • HHTF
    • HTF
    • TTF
      • No move yet
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
  • 20:05
    • HHTF
    • HTF
    • TTF
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Long
  • HTF D TT @ LKCCAS
  • Entry around 57.95
  • Tar­gets 58.10, 58.30, 58.55
• Hypo 2 Short
  • HTF R 50MACAR
  • Entry around 58.05
  • Tar­gets 57.85, 57.60
• Hypo 3 Rotational
  • 57.70 — 58.20

	Dai­ly Report Card
Date:	8/1/2019
Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ / A setups
Com­bined Score	86
Process Report Card (10 each)
	9	Ses­sion PECS
	9	Hypos
	10	Mar­ket Prep
	10	Dai­ly review
	10	Progress tow. week­ly goal
	48	Total
Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
100%	8	Real-time analy­sis
2/2	10	Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
2/2	5	Setups tak­en
0/2	10	Erro­neous Entries
1/2	5	Erro­neous Exits
	38	total

• Week­ly Goal
  • Only trade A/A+ trade ideas
  • For­ward test exper­i­men­tal trades
• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 1 — 90% Hypo 2 — 90%
    • Again 2 hypos play­ing out. Sort of. Didn’t real­ly quite reach the overex­tend­ed lev­els I hypoth­e­sized but still pret­ty decent.
  • Real-time analy­sis — 80%
    • I had a great day today even though I lost in terms of P/L I gained in knowl­edge and con­fi­dence. I rec­og­nized the pat­tern devel­op­ing dur­ing the ses­sion but for­got the end­ing of it. I trad­ed it well for the most part but then start­ed doubt­ing the pat­tern and cut down on risk I had put on only to see it would hit my tar­gets after all. This is the first time see­ing the pat­tern with­in my cur­rent approach to under­stand­ing mar­ket nar­ra­tive and I’ll just be that much bet­ter next time. 
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • P: Did well here
  • E: Did well here. Stayed com­posed because I believed in the pat­tern….. Until I didn’t and because I start­ed doubt­ing I took off risk. At the time it was the right deci­sion, even though I would have banked a good prof­it if I hadn’t. “I’ll get you next time, Gad­get! NEXT TIME!!!” Sor­ry.. Had to do it 🙂
  • CS: Did well here. 
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • Trust my approach. Nobody does it the way I do it (at least that I know of:)) And that my friend is a good thing. 
• Positive(s)
  • Learned to only trade in the direc­tion of my mar­ket nar­ra­tive and although it seems tempt­ing to take that short oppor­tu­ni­ty (for small prof­its, but big risk) just focus on the big­ger pic­ture and trade in align­ment with the big­ger pic­ture ie mar­ket narrative
  • Adjust­ed my intra-ses­sion tem­plate for log­ging clues to focus on clues in align­ment with mar­ket nar­ra­tive and for any signs of change in that nar­ra­tive. Did well here. 
• Negative(s)
  • Like I said. I might have lost P/L but I learned so much today 🙂

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.