05062019 Wednesday – HTF R Apex – TTF R

05062019 Wednesday – HTF R Apex – TTF R

Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Confirm As Resistance
• CAS = Confirm As Support
• UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
• LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
• DPP = Daily Pivot Point
• DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
• DS = Daily Support (pivot)
• WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
• WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
• HL = Higher Low
• HH = Higher High
• LH = Lower High
• LL = Lower Low
• SD = Standard Deviation
• VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = London Session (EU)
• NY = New York Session (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Lower Time Frame
• TTF = Trading Time Frame
• HTF = Higher Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

• Weekly goal
  • Eat less carbs.
• How do you feel?
  • Feel good but something going on privately so should be extra careful today.
• How would you rate it (1-5)?
  • 3

Market Prep

Intraday Fundamentals

• API report
  • Latest Release Jun 04, 2019
  • Actual 3.545M
  • Previous -5.265M
• EIA report
  • Release Date tomorrow
  • Forecast -0.849M
  • Previous -0.282M

Intraday Technical Analysis

• HTF
  • Define context
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
      • High 53.825
      • PVAH 53.508
      • PPOC 53.149
      • PVAL 52.917
      • Low 52.474
    • Where is the LIS?
      • PVAH area
    • What didn’t happen?
      • We didn’t start a new imbalance and market is currently balancing
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migration? What is the current market condition? Are we trending, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • Market is balancing with an apex forming so could be due for another impulse move shortly

• TTF
  • What trade locations among this structure would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • Move below PVAL or above PVAH
  • What has the Asian Session printed?
    • Apex forming on HTF

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • HHTF D TC
  • Entry around 52.80
  • Targets 52.50, 52.20, 51.75
• Hypo 2 Long
  • HHTF D TT
  • Entry around 53.60
  • Targets 53.80, 54.40, 54.80
• Hypo 3 Rotational 52.60 – 53.50

My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)

• Define winning
  • Have patience in only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to analyze later but be open to experiment with TTF R setups

Reading the Tape

• What is printing?
  • 16:05
    • HTF R, TTF R, LTF R
    • Looks like some TTF A/D going on below 50MA, possible BO
  • 16:35
    • TTF20MACAR + move down to TTFLKC, possible BD oir possible TTF R in effect. Still not much clarity, although HTF looks like a potential HTF50MACAR as well so slightly more bearish biased
  • 17:05
    • TTF R still in effect (seems tighter than usual only at 35 ticks height), no clarity yet
  • 17:35
    • Possible HTF50MABO but seems buyers lacking at TTF200MA, possible TTF R reversal
  • 18:05
    • TTF200MABO attempt but seems to be no buyers to pull through on move.
  • 18:35
    • TTF200MABOF Market still indecisive

Trade Management

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade

• T1
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • HTF R 50MABO
    • TTF
      • (experimental) TTF200MABOPB
      • Entry 10 @ 53.31
    • LTF
      • LTFUKCPB
  • SL
    • 53.08
  • TP
    • 53.56
  • Trade Management
    • Possible lack of buyers still since price is not moving as quickly but we haven’t dropped below TTF1.0SD
    • Covered at 53.34 because of very bearish candle just above TTF1.0SD

Daily Report Card

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • HHTF D TC
  • Entry around 52.80
  • Targets 52.50, 52.20, 51.75
• Hypo 2 Long
  • HHTF D TT
  • Entry around 53.60
  • Targets 53.80, 54.40, 54.80
• Hypo 3 Rotational 52.60 – 53.50

	Date:	6/5/2019	Weekly Goal	Execute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)
	Combined Score	98
	Process Report Card (10 each)		Performance Report Card (10 each)
	9	Session PECS	100%	10	Real-time analysis
	9	Hypos	1/1	10	Setups Identified (TEST)
	10	Trading the process	1/1	10	Setups taken
	10	Daily review	0	10	Erroneous Entries
	10	Progress tow. weekly goal	0	10	Erroneous Exits
	48	Total		50

• Weekly Goal
  • Have patience in only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to analyze later but be open to experiment with TTF R setups
• Review
  • Took one experimental trade which I scratched. I did well though. I was a few ticks in the money and even though I was thinking there was no continuation to the move (which there wasn’t) I stayed in the move until I had more confirmation on my exit rule.

Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Sizing	Hit Target?	Reason to cover	Problem	Proposed solution
0	0	(experimental) TTF200MABOPB	10	NO	Scratched	very bearish candle just above TTF1.0SD	–	–

• How accurate was my assessment of market context?
  • Hypo 3 – 90%
  • Real-time analysis was good. Saw that because we are in a HTF R apex we would have possibly no follow-through on moves.
• How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
  • I was a little distracted with personal things but I didn’t let that get in the way of trading. Did well here.
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • I can stay calm and collected and don’t have to be emotional in the market.
• What’s one thing I need to do more often?
  • Stick to my exit rules.
• What’s one thing I need to do less often?
  • Don’t take profits too soon. If the setup is valid it means that the setup has statistical qualities that over the long-term will pay out even though you take a loss.

Feedback?

Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.