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14052019 Tuesday — HTF R LKC PVAL CAS — TTF 200MABO NT TC

14052019 Tuesday — HTF R LKC PVAL CAS — TTF 200MABO NT TC

14052019 Tues­day — Trade Plan

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

  • Week­ly goal
    • No rice and noo­dles etc. Brown rice is allowed. 
  • How do you feel?
    • I feel good but not as sharp. I slept almost a full 8 hours. Tonight gonna sleep ear­ly as well. 
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 4

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • May 14th
  • EIA report
    • Release Date  May 15, 2019 
    • Fore­cast ‑2.125M
    • Pre­vi­ous ‑3.963M

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • HTF
    • Define con­text
      • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
        • High 63.434
        • PVAH 62.565
        • PPOC 61.707
        • PVAL 60.909
        • Low 60.765
      • Where is the LIS?
        • 61.10 area
      • What didn’t happen?
        • We weren’t able to BO from HTF UKC, looks like HHTF200MA ran interference.
      • Dialling in on opportunities
        • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
          • We had a big swing not break­ing out or down from either side indi­cat­ing pos­si­ble HHTF activ­i­ty so bet­ter be cau­tious still. HTF R is still in effect and volatil­i­ty could just be pick­ing up more.
  • TTF
    • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
      • HTF200MACAR or BO
  • LTF
    • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
      • After the big drop from yes­ter­day we have been what looks like a HTF PB but since HTF R is still in effect I think this could be more like­ly part of a rever­sal than a HTF PB

Trade Idea (Not much clarity)

  • Hypo 1 Long
    • Move up to and HTF200MABO to HTF UKCCAR
    • Entry around 61.80
    • Tar­gets 62.20
  • Hypo 2 Short
    • HTF200MACAR and drop to Prev Low
    • Entry around 61.70
    • Tar­gets 61.30, 61.05
  • Hypo 3 Long
    • Drop to PVAL/Prev Low CAS into PPOC
    • Entry around 61.05
    • Tar­gets 61.35, 61.65, extend­ed 62,30

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is printing? 
    • 16:05
      • We dropped from TTF200MA and then tried to retest once more but it held again. Now dropped to LTFLKC and pos­si­ble look­ing to drop fur­ther but we are near PVAL.
      • Big­ger TTF swings makes me think some­thing is going on and with­out clar­i­ty on direc­tion I will not take a position. 
    • 16:35
      • Still look­ing bear­ish how­ev­er I am also open for a rever­sal at Prev Low
    • 17:05
      • Made a bear­ish can­dle at TTFLKC VWAP area and dropped to pre­vi­ous swing low how­ev­er did not break it so it could still be pos­si­ble that a rever­sal is com­ing. We have not yet broken 
    • 17:35
      • TTF200MACAR and drop to TTFLKC how­ev­er still not con­vinced we not going to reverse here. I need to watch myself being biased and only trade my set­up. Wait for my set­up to arise and execute. 
    • 18:05
      • we still haven’t bro­ken TTF200MA and 50MA just crossed under.
      • HTF is look­ing like smart mon­ey is posi­tion­ing themselves
      • Price is very slow and not much going on in terms of the mar­ket decid­ing which way to go

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

  • T1
    • Why? What do I see?
      • HTF
        • HTF R LKC
      • TTF
        • TTF quick dou­ble touch of 2.5 SD pos­si­ble reversal
        • High momen­tum move into KC over VWAP
        • 10 @ Entry 61.118
      • LTF
        • 50MABO on high momentum
    • SL
      • 60.981
    • TP
      • 61.420
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • There were high momen­tum push­es to TTFVWAPBO how­ev­er momen­tum seems to have died out and I am look­ing to cov­er at a loss or get stopped out if momen­tum doesn’t pick up.
      • Stopped out at 60.948
  • T2
    • Why? What do I see?
      • HTF
        • HTF R LKC below VWAP
      • TTF
        • TTF TC
        • TTF200MACAR
        • 10 @ Entry 61.087
      • LTF
        • LTF200MACAR
    • SL
      • 61.273
    • TP
      • 60.75
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • Cov­ered at LTF VWAP 61.064 when momen­tum lacked.
  • T3
    • Why? What do I see?
      • HTF
        • HTF R LKC
      • TTF
        • TTF UT
        • TTF200MABO attempt
        • 2 @ Entry 61.162
      • LTF
        • LTF200MAPB
    • SL
      • Soft 60.996
      • Hard 60.881
    • TP
      • 61.55
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • TTF PB to 1.0 SD 
      • TTF200MABO attempt still in effect unless we drop to TTF VWAP where I have my SL
      • Cov­ered at TTF VWAP at 61.003
  • T4
    • Why? What do I see?
      • HTF
        • HTF R LKC pos­si­ble PVAH CAS
      • TTF
        • TTF200MAPB
        • 10 @ entry 61.234
      • LTF
        • LTFUKCPB
    • SL
      • 61.05 at TTF VWAP
    • TP
      • 61.35 at TTFUKC
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • Cov­ered at 61.281 at HTF 1.0 SD near TTF UKC
  • T5
    • Why? What do I see?
      • HTF
        • HTF200MABO attempt
      • TTF
        • TTF TC PB to 1.0 SD
        • 5 @ entry 61.909
      • LTF
        • PB to UKC VWAP
    • SL
      • 61.661 at
    • TP
      • 61.35 at TTFUKC
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • If LTF50MA breaks I’m gonna cov­er at a loss. 
      • Cov­ered at 61.788 because we are get­ting close to NY open and liq­uid­i­ty will come in but prob­a­bly before that we will drop to TTF UKC VWAP area so decid­ed to cov­er. Although I do think that we will go high­er lat­er on. 

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea (Not much clarity)

  • Hypo 1 Long
    • Move up to and HTF200MABO to HTF UKCCAR
    • Entry around 61.80
    • Tar­gets 62.20
  • Hypo 2 Short
    • HTF200MACAR and drop to Prev Low
    • Entry around 61.70
    • Tar­gets 61.30, 61.05
  • Hypo 3 Long
    • Drop to PVAL/Prev Low CAS into PPOC
    • Entry around 61.05
    • Tar­gets 61.35, 61.65, extend­ed 62,30

Date:5/14/2019Week­ly GoalExe­cute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)
Com­bined Score73
Process Report Card (10 each)Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
9Pre-mar­ket routines8Hypos
8Ses­sion PECS7Real-time analy­sis
7Trad­ing the process4Trade selec­tion
10Dai­ly review6Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.
6Progress toward Week­ly goal8Risk Adjust­ed Returns

  • Week­ly Goal
    • Exe­cute A+ (TTF TC / A setups (TTF NT) to build track record
  • Review
    • I took 5 trades today
    • Trade 1
      • TTF TT (B/C set­up) and thus should not have tak­en this one
      • Real­ized mar­ket was behav­ing ‘dif­fer­ent’ than what I’m used to see with a con­tin­u­a­tion move and thus was more like­ly to bot­tom and reverse. Although, I should not have tak­en this one since it is not an A+/A setup.
      • Rea­sons why I did take it
        • I went in with ⅕ of nor­mal size think­ing I will give it extra room to devel­op which was good. How­ev­er, I put the SL too tight and got stopped out. (Just real­ized look­ing back that I went in with my full size instead of ⅕ will pay atten­tion to that next time)
        • Although it even­tu­al­ly turned into a big move my way I should have wait­ed for the set­up to tran­si­tion from TT to NT after we had a PB (trade 4)
    • Trade 2
      • TTF TC
      • After I botched up the first one I went back to my orig­i­nal rules and when I saw a rejec­tion in line with the TC set­up I went short
      • I quick­ly cov­ered though when momen­tum dried up and we failed to make a TTF LL (accord­ing to plan)
    • Trade 3
      • TTF NT
      • I messed up the entry and should have wait­ed for the PB before entering
      • Rea­son for mess­ing up is because there was high momen­tum lead­ing up to TTF200MA which made me think we we’re gonna break out. Good thing I went in with ⅕ of my nor­mal siz­ing. Obvi­ous­ly it didn’t go my way and I got stopped out. The point I was stopped out should have been my next entry (trade 4) or I should have put my stop wider which I don’t agree with. I should have wait­ed for a bet­ter entry instead of act­ing on FOMO.
    • Trade 4
      • TTF NT/TC
      • After botch­ing up yet anoth­er trade I missed my best entry but when I saw a TTF200MABO + PB I entered so tech­ni­cal­ly I would say that this is a TC setup
      • When we hit our first tar­get I cov­ered at a prof­it how­ev­er I should have noticed the high momen­tum and should have let it (if not half) run. I will replay this.
    • Trade 5
      • TTF TC
      • Price touched 1.0 SD and I went long
      • Price had moved on high momen­tum for some time and more than not I want­ed to recov­er some loss­es but I quick­ly cov­ered this when we broke 1.0 SD
    • All in all I lost 0.9% of my total account. It was worth the lessons I learned. 
  • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
    • HYPO 1 played out fair­ly well but it was my real-time analy­sis that was lack­ing with a com­bi­na­tion of tak­ing the wrong setup
  • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
    • I did fair­ly well here. Even though I made mis­takes I tried keep­ing a clear head and take my stops and eval­u­ate if I should alter my posi­tion sizing.
  • What’s one thing you learned today?
    • I learned that it is now clear­er to me to only trade my 2 setups. I will keep tak­ing these setups at least for a month to build a track record which I can ana­lyze to see what works best and where I need more work. 
  • What’s one thing I need to do more often?
    • Focus only on TTF TC and NT setups
  • What’s one thing I need to do less often?
    • Don’t take trades when there is a high momen­tum move. When you see one it means you have already missed your best R/R oppor­tu­ni­ty and thus you need to wait for the next best oppor­tu­ni­ty to arise before get­ting in.


Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 


Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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