15052019 Wednesday — HTF A/D — TTF R 200MACAS

15052019 Wednes­day — HTF A/D — TTF R 200MACAS

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

• Week­ly goal
  • No rice, noo­dles, etc.
    • Had a lit­tle brown rice yes­ter­day and some noo­dles today for lunch
• How do you feel?
  • I feel good. 
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 4

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • Lat­est Release May 14, 2019
  • Actu­al 8.600M
  • Pre­vi­ous 2.806M
• EIA report
  • Release Date  May 15, 2019 
  • Fore­cast ‑0.800M
  • Pre­vi­ous ‑3.963M
  • Fore­cast changed from ‑2.125M

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HTF
  • Define con­text
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
      • High 62.24
      • PVAH 62.24
      • PPOC 61.847
      • PVAL 61.253
      • Low 60.829
    • Where is the LIS?
      • 61.30 area
    • What didn’t happen?
      • Mar­ket didn’t choose a direction
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • Mar­ket still balancing

• TTF
  • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • Drop to Prev Low
• LTF
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • Made a move up to PPOC (TTF200MABOF) and returned back to 61.40s

Trade Idea (not much clarity)

• Hypo 1 Long
  • HTF200MABO
  • Entry around 61.90
  • Tar­gets 62.20, 62.45
• Hypo 2 Short
  • HTF200MABOF
  • Entry around 61.90
  • Tar­gets 61.30
• Hypo 3 Short
  • PVALBD
  • Entry around 61.20
  • Tar­gets 60.90

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze later

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 16:05
    • Ear­li­er dur­ing AS we BD from HTF50MA and made a PB then con­tin­ued down towards HTFLKC
    • TTF DT in progress but we hit PVAL pos­si­ble break here. Wait for PB to TTFLKCVWAP area before con­sid­er­ing get­ting in
  • 16:35
    • High momen­tum move to TTFVWAP then PB to VWAP enter TTF NT setup
  • 17:05
    • HTF and TTF are show­ing long-bod­ied can­dles that means some­thing is going on best to stay out. 
  • 17:35
    • Move to TTF LKC and rever­sal doji fol­lowed by drop accord­ing to Range bound trad­ing. Did not get in because I can only take TTF NT and TC setups.
    • Price is still mov­ing fast
  • 18:05
    • PB to TTF VWAP 50MA LTF200MA
  • 18:35
    • Test­ing HTF LKC
    • TTF below LKC might reverse here
  • 19:05
    • We reversed from TTFLKC and TTF50MABO but run­ning inter­fer­ence at HTFVWAP
  • 19:35
    • Still below HTF VWAP TTF200MA doesn’t look like break­ing any­time soon
  • 20:05

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

• T1
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • HTF move to LKC but not reached it yet
    • TTF
      • TTF DTC price back to 1.0 SD
    • LTF
      • LTFLKCPB
  • SL
    • 61.341
  • TP
    • 61.121
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • High errat­ic momen­tum prob­a­bly because we hit PVAL, scratched by cov­er­ing man­u­al­ly cov­ered at 61.225

• T2
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • HTF LKC
    • TTF
      • TTF LKC VWAP PB
      • TTF TC
    • LTF
      • LTF UKC
  • SL
    • 61.405
  • TP
    • 61.184
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Stopped out at 61.405

• T3
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • Pos­si­ble rejec­tion HTF LKC and PVAL
    • TTF
      • TTF test 50MA and PB to VWAP LKC area
      • TTF NT 10 @ 61.387
    • LTF
      • LTF drop to 50MA
  • SL
    • 61.202
  • TP
    • 61.56
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Scratched at 61.40
    • scratched because errat­ic momen­tum and TTF mak­ing long bod­ied can­dles indi­cat­ing some­thing is going on and I should stay out for now

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea (not much clarity)

• Hypo 1 Long
  • HTF200MABO
  • Entry around 61.90
  • Tar­gets 62.20, 62.45
• Hypo 2 Short
  • HTF200MABOF
  • Entry around 61.90
  • Tar­gets 61.30
• Hypo 3 Short
  • PVALBD
  • Entry around 61.20
  • Tar­gets 60.90

Date:	5/15/2019	Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)
Com­bined Score	86
Process Report Card (10 each)	Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
9	Pre-mar­ket routines	3	Hypos
9	Ses­sion PECS	9	Real-time analy­sis
10	Trad­ing the process	9	Trade selec­tion
9	Dai­ly review	9	Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.
10	Progress toward Week­ly goal	9	Risk Adjust­ed Returns
47	Total	39

• Week­ly Goal
  • Only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze later
• Review

Trade	Date	Ses­sion	Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Mis­takes (if any)	Siz­ing	Hit Tar­get?	Rea­son to cover
1	15/5/20190	EU	0	0	TTF TC	5	NO	High errat­ic momen­tum prob­a­bly because we hit PVAL, scratched by cov­er­ing manually
2	15/5/2019	EU	0	0	TTF TC	5	Stopped Out
3	15/5/2019	EU	0	0	TTF NT	10	NO	scratched because errat­ic momen­tum and TTF mak­ing long bod­ied can­dles indi­cat­ing some­thing is going on and I should stay out for now

• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • In terms of hypos not so good. We trad­ed in a range and smart mon­ey is prob­a­bly posi­tion­ing on the HTF which didn’t cre­ate oppor­tu­ni­ties for me with my setups. How­ev­er, I did take notes of anoth­er set­up that I am work­ing on which is a TTF range bound set­up which I will replay later.
  • Real-time analy­sis was close to on-point. I noticed some­thing was up but took my set­up any­way with ½ siz­ing. This helped with learn­ing how to take my stop and man­u­al­ly cov­er when things don’t move in a way it is “sup­posed” to.
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • I did well here.
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • I can be calm and col­lect­ed when I fol­low my plan. Sounds easy! Ha 🙂 Progress. Not perfection.
• What’s one thing I need to do more often?
  • Take notes on poten­tial future setups now that I have time frames that seem to be work­ing for me. 
• What’s one thing I need to do less often?
  • I could have been more involved con­cen­tra­tion-wise. After I deemed the ses­sion to be in a range I found myself pre­oc­cu­pied with oth­er things unre­lat­ed to trading.

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.