17052019 Friday — HTF UTC — TTF R TC

17052019 Fri­day — HTF UTC — TTF R TC

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

• Week­ly goal
  • Eat less rice, noo­dles, etc.
• How do you feel?
  • I feel good although not too sharp
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 4

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • Lat­est Release May 14, 2019
  • Actu­al 8.600M
  • Pre­vi­ous 2.806M
• EIA report
  • Release Date  May 15, 2019 
  • Fore­cast ‑0.800M
  • Pre­vi­ous ‑3.963M
  • Actu­al 5.431M

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HTF
  • Define con­text
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
      • High 63.660
      • PVAH 63.135
      • PPOC 62.616
      • PVAL 62.371
      • Low 62.286
    • Where is the LIS?
      • PVAH area
    • What didn’t happen?
      • We didn’t BD from HTF UKC
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
      • HTF UT still in effect how­ev­er some slow­ing down of momen­tum prob­a­bly on the hori­zon on the short/medium term

• TTF
  • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • HTF TC
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • AS made a HTF LH look­ing to take a breather maybe

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Long
  • HTF TC
  • Entry around 63.20
  • Tar­gets 63.55, 63.80
• Hypo 2 Short
  • HTF50MABD
  • Entry around 63.10
  • Tar­gets 62.80

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record for one month (min­i­mum 30) trades) to ana­lyze later

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 16:05
    • Many dojis at TTF UKC just above TTF200MA pos­si­ble A/D? Price is also very sluggish.
  • 16:35
    • TTF50MAPB (which is also HTF50MA and we are still more like­ly to con­tin­ue UT unless we BD here)
  • 17:05
    • Still a lot of A/D bars on TTF but we might be look­ing to have a HTF50MACAS, any­way TTF R still in effect
  • 17:35
    • We moved over TTF VWAP and then made a PB pos­si­ble BO accord­ing to TTF R set­up but have not tak­en it
    • Pos­si­ble HTF UKC Rever­sal to start a HTF R again
  • 18:05
    • HHTF200MABO pos­si­bly
    • Still many doji can­dles (is this indica­tive of the HHTFBO?
  • 18:35
    • A move over HTF UKC but price still very slow. This is prob­a­bly a BO. will take note of this for my TTF R trade idea.
  • 19:05
    • Exper­i­men­tal trade: TTF TC over UKC after TTF R

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

• T1
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • HTF50MACAS
    • TTF
      • TTF TC PB to TTF50MA above TTF200MA
      • Entry 5 @ 63.312
    • LTF
      • LTF50MACAS
  • SL
    • 63.244
  • TP
    • DPVAH 63.458
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • I cov­ered when we formed a doji at LTF UKC

• T2
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • Pos­si­ble HTF UKC BO 
    • TTF
      • TTF R TC at TTF UKC area
      • Entry 63.47
    • LTF
      • LTFLKCCAS
  • SL
  • TP
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Cov­ered at 63.51

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Long
  • HTF TC
  • Entry around 63.20
  • Tar­gets 63.55, 63.80
• Hypo 2 Short
  • HTF50MABD
  • Entry around 63.10
  • Tar­gets 62.80

Date:	5/17/2019	Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)
Com­bined Score	86
Process Report Card (10 each)	Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
5	Pre-mar­ket routines	7	Hypos
9	Ses­sion PECS	9	Real-time analy­sis
10	Trad­ing the process	10	Trade selec­tion
9	Dai­ly review	9	Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.
10	Progress toward Week­ly goal	8	Risk Adjust­ed Returns
43	Total	43

• Week­ly Goal
  • Only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record for one month (min­i­mum 30) trades) to ana­lyze later
• Review
  • I took one TTF TC trade and quick­ly cov­ered when I real­ized this was going to be anoth­er TTF R day so after­wards I just sat here tak­ing notes like the sci­en­tist I am 🙂 
  • Took an exper­i­men­tal trade on 2nd account and cov­ered that quick­ly as well when I saw price retrac­ing more than I liked (cross over MA). 
  • I didn’t have time to do my mar­ket prep so kin­da rushed through it when I sat down to trade. 

Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Mis­takes (if any)	Siz­ing	Hit Tar­get?	Rea­son to cover	Prob­lem	Pro­posed solution
0	0	TTF TC	-	5	NO	Doji on LTF and lack of momentum	-	-
0	0	TTF R TC (exper­i­men­tal)	-	10	NO	Price crossed down over LTF50MA and I cov­ered at a small profit	-	-

• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo1 90%
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • I did well here
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • That I don’t need to trade. I can be patient and wait for setups to present themselves. 
• What’s one thing I need to do more often?
  • Be a patient scientist
• What’s one thing I need to do less often?
  • Think­ing I’m there. I am not there. There is no there. Just keep doing what you’re doing.

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

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