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13052019 Monday — HTFTTF200MABO HTFUKCBO — TTF UT - Bear Market Trader
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13052019 Monday — HTFTTF200MABO HTFUKCBO — TTF UT

13052019 Monday — HTFTTF200MABO HTFUKCBO — TTF UT

13052019 Mon­day — HTFTTF200MABO HTFUKCBO — TTF UT

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

  • Week­ly goal
    • No rice, noo­dles, etc
  • How do you feel?
    • Even though I had a rough week­end I feel OK. Tonight I’ll sleep earlier.
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 3

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • Next release May 14th
  • EIA report
    • Release Date May 15, 2019 
    • Fore­cast  2.984M
    • Pre­vi­ous ‑3.963M

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • HTF
    • Define con­text
      • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
        • High 62.546
        • PVAH 62.281
        • PPOC 62.020
        • PVAL 61.764
        • Low 61.494
      • Where is the LIS?
        • 61.55 area
      • What didn’t happen?
        • We didn’t BO or BD on the HTF and are still in a R
      • Dialling in on opportunities
        • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
          • I believe that last Fri­day smart mon­ey has posi­tioned itself but the mar­ket hasn’t set a direc­tion yet so HTF R is still in effect.
  • TTF
    • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
      • HTF200MABO or CAR
  • LTF
    • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
      • Bounced off Prev low with a move back to PVAL / TTF200MA. Apex TTF50MA200MA.

Trade Idea (Not much clarity)

  • Hypo 1 Short
    • HTF200MACAR (pos­si­ble rever­sal at Prev Low level)
    • Entry around 61.65
    • Tar­gets 61.40
  • Hypo 2 Long
    • HTFTTF200MABO
    • Entry 61.80
    • Tar­gets 62.05, 62.40
  • Hypo 3 Short
    • Move to PVAH and reverse
    • Entry around 62.20
    • Tar­gets 62.05, 61.80

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is printing? 
    • 16:05
      • TTF UT spike move up from VWAP UKC look­ing to poten­tial­ly go to HTF UKC. 
    • 16:35
      • Still high on momen­tum. HTFUKCBO most probable. 
    • 17:05
      • Pos­si­ble Prev High BO
    • 17:35
      • Pos­si­ble Prev High PB and continuation
      • Bulls still much in charge. TTF above 1.0 SD.
    • 18:05
      • Pos­si­ble HTF PB wait for PB on TTF to VWAP UKC to enter long
    • 18:35
      • After drop to TTF UKC PB to VWAP and back to UKC pos­si­ble BD here
    • 19:05
      • HTF PB to Prev high no sign of con­tin­u­a­tion yet
      • TTF ducked under UKC after fail­ing to BO from VWAP look­ing bear­ish but keep an eye out for a 50MAPB which is about HTF UKC
    • 19:35
      • 20:05

      Trade Man­age­ment

      Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

      • T1
        • Why? What do I see?
          • HTF
            • UKC
          • TTF
            • Accel­er­at­ed move up longer swing in UT pos­si­ble exhaustion
            • Entry 2 @ 62.334
          • LTF
            • Rever­sal can­dle after extend­ed move
        • SL
          • 62.643
        • TP
          • 62.05
        • Trade Man­age­ment
          • I think the momen­tum on the move up is strong and we are prob­a­bly gonna BO from HTF UKC. That is anoth­er rea­son why I took a small­er posi­tion to be in the game but at less risk. I want to see if it does drop here and I’ll add.
          • Broke through PVAH and are now test­ing Prev High
          • Cov­ered at 62.567
      • T2
        • Why? What do I see?
          • HTF
            • Pos­si­ble Prev High BO
          • TTF
            • TTF TC PB to 1.0 SD
            • Entry 62.554
          • LTF
            • LTF50MAPB
        • SL
          • 62.306
        • TP
          • 62.55
        • Trade Man­age­ment
          • Cov­ered at 62.68 think­ing we might have a TTF dou­ble top
      • T3
        • Why? What do I see?
          • HTF
            • PB to 1.0 SD
          • TTF
            • PB to UKC
            • 5 @ Entry 62.599
          • LTF
            • Duck below LKC
        • SL
          • 62.429
        • TP
          • 62.80
        • Trade Man­age­ment
          • I think I’ll get stopped out since price is very slow and LTF doesn’t look like it wants to BO from VWAP
          • Pos­si­ble dou­ble touch of UKC to con­firm a continuation
          • Price not break­ing TTF VWAP so cov­ered at 62.624

      Dai­ly Report Card

      Trade Idea (Not much clarity)

      • Hypo 1 Short
        • HTF200MACAR (pos­si­ble rever­sal at Prev Low level)
        • Entry around 61.65
        • Tar­gets 61.40
      • Hypo 2 Long
        • HTFTTF200MABO
        • Entry 61.80
        • Tar­gets 62.05, 62.40
      • Hypo 3 Short
        • Move to PVAH and reverse
        • Entry around 62.20
        • Tar­gets 62.05, 61.80

      Date:5/13/2019Week­ly GoalExe­cute Play­book setups
      Com­bined Score83
      Process Report Card (10 each)Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
      9Pre-mar­ket routines7Hypos
      9Ses­sion PECS8Real-time analy­sis
      8Trad­ing the process7Trade selec­tion
      9Dai­ly review8Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.
      9Progress toward Week­ly goal9Risk Adjust­ed Returns
      44Total39

      • Week­ly Goal
        • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market
      • Review
        • Hypo 2 was in play but then even extend­ed over Prev High. I failed to catch the first big oppor­tu­ni­ty because I was not behind my com­put­er until after due to work.
        • When price hit HTF UKC I took my first posi­tion. Know­ing that it was counter-trend I took ⅕ of my nor­mal posi­tion as these moves tend to go on a bit fur­ther before revers­ing look­ing to add lat­er on. This didn’t come fast enough and since we failed to break TTF 1.0 SD I closed my posi­tion at a loss. 
        • Short­ly after I wait­ed for a PB to 1.0 SD and went long again on ⅕ of nor­mal size. When this failed to make a sub­stan­tial new high and lack of momen­tum (sign of poten­tial rollover) I cov­ered this in profit.
        • When we returned to TTF UKC I went long this time ½ of nor­mal posi­tion but when we failed to BO from VWAP I cov­ered this in prof­it as well. 
      • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
        • Doing my mar­ket prep I felt I lacked clar­i­ty on my hypos but real-time analy­sis was better. 
      • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
        • I did fair­ly well here. I was not too wor­ried about the counter-trend posi­tion because I took a small­er posi­tion and risked less than 0.6%
      • What’s one thing you learned today?
        • That trend trad­ing is more suit­ed to my risk tolerance.
      • What’s one thing I need to do more often?
        • Have the patience to wait for a PB to tech­ni­cal lev­el accord­ing to my setups
      • What’s one thing I need to do less often?
        • Don’t take counter-trend trades when momen­tum is still strong. Wait for con­fir­ma­tion on the (TTF TT) before going against the trend. 

      Feed­back?

      Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

      T3chAddict
      t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

      Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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