13052019 Monday — HTFTTF200MABO HTFUKCBO — TTF UT

13 May 13052019 Monday — HTFTTF200MABO HTFUKCBO — TTF UT

13052019 Mon­day — HTFTTF200MABO HTFUKCBO — TTF UT

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

• Week­ly goal
  • No rice, noo­dles, etc
• How do you feel?
  • Even though I had a rough week­end I feel OK. Tonight I’ll sleep earlier.
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 3

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • Next release May 14th
• EIA report
  • Release Date May 15, 2019 
  • Fore­cast  2.984M
  • Pre­vi­ous ‑3.963M

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HTF
  • Define con­text
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
      • High 62.546
      • PVAH 62.281
      • PPOC 62.020
      • PVAL 61.764
      • Low 61.494
    • Where is the LIS?
      • 61.55 area
    • What didn’t happen?
      • We didn’t BO or BD on the HTF and are still in a R
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • I believe that last Fri­day smart mon­ey has posi­tioned itself but the mar­ket hasn’t set a direc­tion yet so HTF R is still in effect.

• TTF
  • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • HTF200MABO or CAR
• LTF
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • Bounced off Prev low with a move back to PVAL / TTF200MA. Apex TTF50MA200MA.

Trade Idea (Not much clarity)

• Hypo 1 Short
  • HTF200MACAR (pos­si­ble rever­sal at Prev Low level)
  • Entry around 61.65
  • Tar­gets 61.40
• Hypo 2 Long
  • HTFTTF200MABO
  • Entry 61.80
  • Tar­gets 62.05, 62.40
• Hypo 3 Short
  • Move to PVAH and reverse
  • Entry around 62.20
  • Tar­gets 62.05, 61.80

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 16:05
    • TTF UT spike move up from VWAP UKC look­ing to poten­tial­ly go to HTF UKC. 
  • 16:35
    • Still high on momen­tum. HTFUKCBO most probable. 
  • 17:05
    • Pos­si­ble Prev High BO
  • 17:35
    • Pos­si­ble Prev High PB and continuation
    • Bulls still much in charge. TTF above 1.0 SD.
  • 18:05
    • Pos­si­ble HTF PB wait for PB on TTF to VWAP UKC to enter long
  • 18:35
    • After drop to TTF UKC PB to VWAP and back to UKC pos­si­ble BD here
  • 19:05
    • HTF PB to Prev high no sign of con­tin­u­a­tion yet
    • TTF ducked under UKC after fail­ing to BO from VWAP look­ing bear­ish but keep an eye out for a 50MAPB which is about HTF UKC
  • 19:35
  • 20:05

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

• T1
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • UKC
    • TTF
      • Accel­er­at­ed move up longer swing in UT pos­si­ble exhaustion
      • Entry 2 @ 62.334
    • LTF
      • Rever­sal can­dle after extend­ed move
  • SL
    • 62.643
  • TP
    • 62.05
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • I think the momen­tum on the move up is strong and we are prob­a­bly gonna BO from HTF UKC. That is anoth­er rea­son why I took a small­er posi­tion to be in the game but at less risk. I want to see if it does drop here and I’ll add.
    • Broke through PVAH and are now test­ing Prev High
    • Cov­ered at 62.567

• T2
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • Pos­si­ble Prev High BO
    • TTF
      • TTF TC PB to 1.0 SD
      • Entry 62.554
    • LTF
      • LTF50MAPB
  • SL
    • 62.306
  • TP
    • 62.55
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Cov­ered at 62.68 think­ing we might have a TTF dou­ble top

• T3
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • PB to 1.0 SD
    • TTF
      • PB to UKC
      • 5 @ Entry 62.599
    • LTF
      • Duck below LKC
  • SL
    • 62.429
  • TP
    • 62.80
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • I think I’ll get stopped out since price is very slow and LTF doesn’t look like it wants to BO from VWAP
    • Pos­si­ble dou­ble touch of UKC to con­firm a continuation
    • Price not break­ing TTF VWAP so cov­ered at 62.624

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea (Not much clarity)

• Hypo 1 Short
  • HTF200MACAR (pos­si­ble rever­sal at Prev Low level)
  • Entry around 61.65
  • Tar­gets 61.40
• Hypo 2 Long
  • HTFTTF200MABO
  • Entry 61.80
  • Tar­gets 62.05, 62.40
• Hypo 3 Short
  • Move to PVAH and reverse
  • Entry around 62.20
  • Tar­gets 62.05, 61.80

Date:	5/13/2019	Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute Play­book setups
Com­bined Score	83
Process Report Card (10 each)	Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
9	Pre-mar­ket routines	7	Hypos
9	Ses­sion PECS	8	Real-time analy­sis
8	Trad­ing the process	7	Trade selec­tion
9	Dai­ly review	8	Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.
9	Progress toward Week­ly goal	9	Risk Adjust­ed Returns
44	Total	39

• Week­ly Goal
  • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market
• Review
  • Hypo 2 was in play but then even extend­ed over Prev High. I failed to catch the first big oppor­tu­ni­ty because I was not behind my com­put­er until after due to work.
  • When price hit HTF UKC I took my first posi­tion. Know­ing that it was counter-trend I took ⅕ of my nor­mal posi­tion as these moves tend to go on a bit fur­ther before revers­ing look­ing to add lat­er on. This didn’t come fast enough and since we failed to break TTF 1.0 SD I closed my posi­tion at a loss. 
  • Short­ly after I wait­ed for a PB to 1.0 SD and went long again on ⅕ of nor­mal size. When this failed to make a sub­stan­tial new high and lack of momen­tum (sign of poten­tial rollover) I cov­ered this in profit.
  • When we returned to TTF UKC I went long this time ½ of nor­mal posi­tion but when we failed to BO from VWAP I cov­ered this in prof­it as well. 
• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Doing my mar­ket prep I felt I lacked clar­i­ty on my hypos but real-time analy­sis was better. 
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • I did fair­ly well here. I was not too wor­ried about the counter-trend posi­tion because I took a small­er posi­tion and risked less than 0.6%
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • That trend trad­ing is more suit­ed to my risk tolerance.
• What’s one thing I need to do more often?
  • Have the patience to wait for a PB to tech­ni­cal lev­el accord­ing to my setups
• What’s one thing I need to do less often?
  • Don’t take counter-trend trades when momen­tum is still strong. Wait for con­fir­ma­tion on the (TTF TT) before going against the trend. 

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.