31072019 Wednesday — Trade Plan & Journal

31072019 Wednes­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• R = Range
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• HHTF = High­er High Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical
• AD = Accu­mu­la­tion Distribution

Health review

• Week­ly goal
  • Eat only 2 meals a day, alter­nate time of day
• Month­ly goal
  • Start today: no more alco­hol until Sep­tem­ber 1st.
• How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insuf­fi­cient sleep?
  • I feel OK but a bit tired. Prob­a­bly because I drink a lit­tle too much and the sec­ond day of 7.5 hours of sleep instead of 8 hours.
• How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quar­ter posi­tion 4= half posi­tion 5= full position
  • 4

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HHTF
  • HHTF D TT to R to Overbought
    • Pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion of UT
• HTF
  • Lev­els
    • Prev. High 58.471
    • PVAH 57.498
    • PPOC 57.202
    • PVAL 57.033
    • Prev. Low 56.973
  • Yes­ter­day had a U TC @ 50MA into over­bought but still above 1.0 SD. Small PA indi­cates pos­si­ble PB or rever­sal at this lev­el of 58.35
• TTF
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • TTF shows a less than clear rejec­tion of the 50MA while still in UT, pos­si­ble loss in momen­tum and sen­ti­ment and we might be due for a mean rever­sion on HTF
  • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • HTF U TC @ VWAP

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Rota­tion­al 58.20 — 58.60
• Hypo 2 Long
  • HTF U TC @ VWAP
  • Entry around 58.30
  • Tar­gets 58.80, 59.25, extend­ed 59.90
• Hypo 3 Short
  • HTF U TT
  • Entry around 58.30
  • Tar­gets 57.95

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Only trade A/A+ trade ideas
  • For­ward test exper­i­men­tal trades

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 16:05
    • HHTF
      • HHTF PA above 1.5 SD pos­si­ble influx of bulls
    • HTF
      • HTF U TC @ UKC, we breached VWAP so more bear­ish than bull­ish here but still need to watch out for the bulls com­ing around this level
    • TTF
      • After Lon­don open big push down to TTF R AD Over­sold position
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • HTF U TC 
      • HTF U TT
  • 16:35
    • HHTF
    • HTF
      • HTF U TT
    • TTF
      • TTF R AD Over­sold posi­tion pos­si­ble BD
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • Short­er term narrative 
        • HTF U TT
          • High­er prob­a­ble play is at VWAP BD + PB
          • Unclear what play to catch on TTF at this point, a moment to study and learn
      • Longer term narrative
        • HTF U TC @ 50MA
  • 17:05
    • HHTF
      • Breached 1.5 SD a little
    • HTF
      • HTF U TC was in play move up to 2.0 SD
        • Missed the trade being focused on U TT instead. WIll log and learn more about this.
    • TTF
      • TTF R Over­sold into 50MA
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • Wait for more con­fir­ma­tion first
  • 17:35
    • HHTF
    • HTF
      • Push back on the HTF U TC touch to 2.0 SD pos­si­ble HTF U TT in play from now on, look for con­fir­ma­tion on TTF
    • TTF
      • TTF R UKCCAR but have not BD from 50MA (yet?)
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • HTF U TT if there is more confirmation
  • 18:05
    • HHTF
    • HTF
      • Pos­si­ble 2nd touch HTF U TC @ UKC?
    • TTF
      • Breached 50MA a lit­tle bit but could still go any­way since PA seems dead and mar­ket is not mak­ing a move. Calm before the storm.
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • If we stay below TTF R UKC I think HTF U TT is still in play beyond that HTF U TC is back in play how­ev­er I would have missed the best entry and would have to look for a TTF U TC before entering
  • 19:05
    • HHTF
    • HTF
      • HTF U TC still above UKC small PA lack clar­i­ty on mar­ket direction
    • TTF
      • TTF R AD 50MA CAS in line with HTF U TC how­ev­er no fol­low-through on move yet, lack clar­i­ty, per­haps because of the EIA report com­ing out later
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • HTF U TC still look­ing like it’s in effect more con­firmed if we make a swing high on TTF
      • HTF U TT more con­firmed if we fail to make that swing high
  • 19:35
    • HHTF
    • HTF
      • Lack of clar­i­ty on HTF U TC / U TT
    • TTF
      • TTF UKC has proven to be CAS 3 times now but still poten­tial BO from this lev­el pos­si­ble which could con­firm HTF U TC, the oppo­site make the case for HTF U TT
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • Pos­si­ble BO from TTF UKC
  • 20:05
    • HHTF
    • HTF
    • TTF
      • Small PA around UKC pos­si­ble BO
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Rota­tion­al 58.20 — 58.60
• Hypo 2 Long
  • HTF U TC @ VWAP
  • Entry around 58.30
  • Tar­gets 58.80, 59.25, extend­ed 59.90
• Hypo 3 Short
  • HTF U TT
  • Entry around 58.30
  • Tar­gets 57.95

	Dai­ly Report Card
Date:	7/31/2019
Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ / A setups
Com­bined Score	90
Process Report Card (10 each)
	10	Ses­sion PECS
	10	Hypos
	10	Mar­ket Prep
	10	Dai­ly review
	10	Progress tow. week­ly goal
	50	Total
Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
100%	5	Real-time analy­sis
2/2	10	Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
1/2	5	Setups tak­en
0/2	10	Erro­neous Entries
0/2	10	Erro­neous Exits
	40	total

• Week­ly Goal
  • Only trade A/A+ trade ideas
  • For­ward test exper­i­men­tal trades
• Review
• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 2 — 100%
    • Did well here
  • Real-time analy­sis — 50%
    • I am still learn­ing on 2 trade ideas that I have and again, like yes­ter­day, both were in play dur­ing today’s ses­sion. Because both trade ideas go against each oth­er and my per­son­al incli­na­tion is to pre­fer the short over the long side I got stuck to my bias of hypo 2 even though my 1 was pre­vail­ing through­out the ses­sion. Today has been very insight­ful to both these trade ideas and as always I will go back and review today’s session. 
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • P: Did well here.
  • E: Did well here even when trades were going against me at wider stops than I usu­al­ly have. I feel that I am more and more get­ting bet­ter at los­ing mon­ey 🙂 or bet­ter get­ting com­fort­able being down mon­ey in order to let my exper­i­men­tal trad­ing idea devel­op or prove invalidated. 
  • CS: Did well here because of inter­mit­tent fast­ing today. I love my ener­gy lev­el when fasting. 
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • I learned that I am fail­ing faster to get bet­ter and I am not scared to fail. 
• Positive(s)
  • Get­ting one step clos­er to under­stand­ing mar­ket narratives
• Negative(s)
  • Again favored the short side more than the long side. I will work in my play­book on this and set mar­ket direc­tion­al rules that have to be bro­ken before I can take trades in the oth­er direction.

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.