13052019 Monday – HTFTTF200MABO HTFUKCBO – TTF UT

13052019 Monday – HTFTTF200MABO HTFUKCBO – TTF UT

Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Confirm As Resistance
• CAS = Confirm As Support
• UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
• LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
• DPP = Daily Pivot Point
• DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
• DS = Daily Support (pivot)
• WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
• WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
• HL = Higher Low
• HH = Higher High
• LH = Lower High
• LL = Lower Low
• SD = Standard Deviation
• VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = London Session (EU)
• NY = New York Session (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Lower Time Frame
• TTF = Trading Time Frame
• HTF = Higher Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

• Weekly goal
  • No rice, noodles, etc
• How do you feel?
  • Even though I had a rough weekend I feel OK. Tonight I’ll sleep earlier.
• How would you rate it (1-5)?
  • 3

Market Prep

Intraday Fundamentals

• API report
  • Next release May 14th
• EIA report
  • Release Date May 15, 2019
  • Forecast  2.984M
  • Previous -3.963M

Intraday Technical Analysis

• HTF
  • Define context
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
      • High 62.546
      • PVAH 62.281
      • PPOC 62.020
      • PVAL 61.764
      • Low 61.494
    • Where is the LIS?
      • 61.55 area
    • What didn’t happen?
      • We didn’t BO or BD on the HTF and are still in a R
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migration? What is the current market condition? Are we trending, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • I believe that last Friday smart money has positioned itself but the market hasn’t set a direction yet so HTF R is still in effect.

• TTF
  • What trade locations among this structure would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • HTF200MABO or CAR
• LTF
  • What has the Asian Session printed?
    • Bounced off Prev low with a move back to PVAL / TTF200MA. Apex TTF50MA200MA.

Trade Idea (Not much clarity)

• Hypo 1 Short
  • HTF200MACAR (possible reversal at Prev Low level)
  • Entry around 61.65
  • Targets 61.40
• Hypo 2 Long
  • HTFTTF200MABO
  • Entry 61.80
  • Targets 62.05, 62.40
• Hypo 3 Short
  • Move to PVAH and reverse
  • Entry around 62.20
  • Targets 62.05, 61.80

My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)

• Define winning
  • Perform well by EXECUTING playbook setups and be happy by doing what I love and understanding that I give myself over to the randomness of the market

Reading the Tape

• What is printing?
  • 16:05
    • TTF UT spike move up from VWAP UKC looking to potentially go to HTF UKC.
  • 16:35
    • Still high on momentum. HTFUKCBO most probable.
  • 17:05
    • Possible Prev High BO
  • 17:35
    • Possible Prev High PB and continuation
    • Bulls still much in charge. TTF above 1.0 SD.
  • 18:05
    • Possible HTF PB wait for PB on TTF to VWAP UKC to enter long
  • 18:35
    • After drop to TTF UKC PB to VWAP and back to UKC possible BD here
  • 19:05
    • HTF PB to Prev high no sign of continuation yet
    • TTF ducked under UKC after failing to BO from VWAP looking bearish but keep an eye out for a 50MAPB which is about HTF UKC
  • 19:35
  • 20:05

Trade Management

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade

• T1
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • UKC
    • TTF
      • Accelerated move up longer swing in UT possible exhaustion
      • Entry 2 @ 62.334
    • LTF
      • Reversal candle after extended move
  • SL
    • 62.643
  • TP
    • 62.05
  • Trade Management
    • I think the momentum on the move up is strong and we are probably gonna BO from HTF UKC. That is another reason why I took a smaller position to be in the game but at less risk. I want to see if it does drop here and I’ll add.
    • Broke through PVAH and are now testing Prev High
    • Covered at 62.567

• T2
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • Possible Prev High BO
    • TTF
      • TTF TC PB to 1.0 SD
      • Entry 62.554
    • LTF
      • LTF50MAPB
  • SL
    • 62.306
  • TP
    • 62.55
  • Trade Management
    • Covered at 62.68 thinking we might have a TTF double top

• T3
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • PB to 1.0 SD
    • TTF
      • PB to UKC
      • 5 @ Entry 62.599
    • LTF
      • Duck below LKC
  • SL
    • 62.429
  • TP
    • 62.80
  • Trade Management
    • I think I’ll get stopped out since price is very slow and LTF doesn’t look like it wants to BO from VWAP
    • Possible double touch of UKC to confirm a continuation
    • Price not breaking TTF VWAP so covered at 62.624

Daily Report Card

Trade Idea (Not much clarity)

• Hypo 1 Short
  • HTF200MACAR (possible reversal at Prev Low level)
  • Entry around 61.65
  • Targets 61.40
• Hypo 2 Long
  • HTFTTF200MABO
  • Entry 61.80
  • Targets 62.05, 62.40
• Hypo 3 Short
  • Move to PVAH and reverse
  • Entry around 62.20
  • Targets 62.05, 61.80

Date:	5/13/2019	Weekly Goal	Execute Playbook setups
Combined Score	83
Process Report Card (10 each)	Performance Report Card (10 each)
9	Pre-market routines	7	Hypos
9	Session PECS	8	Real-time analysis
8	Trading the process	7	Trade selection
9	Daily review	8	Trade Execution & Mgmt.
9	Progress toward Weekly goal	9	Risk Adjusted Returns
44	Total	39

• Weekly Goal
  • Perform well by EXECUTING playbook setups and be happy by doing what I love and understanding that I give myself over to the randomness of the market
• Review
  • Hypo 2 was in play but then even extended over Prev High. I failed to catch the first big opportunity because I was not behind my computer until after due to work.
  • When price hit HTF UKC I took my first position. Knowing that it was counter-trend I took ⅕ of my normal position as these moves tend to go on a bit further before reversing looking to add later on. This didn’t come fast enough and since we failed to break TTF 1.0 SD I closed my position at a loss.  
  • Shortly after I waited for a PB to 1.0 SD and went long again on ⅕ of normal size. When this failed to make a substantial new high and lack of momentum (sign of potential rollover) I covered this in profit.
  • When we returned to TTF UKC I went long this time ½ of normal position but when we failed to BO from VWAP I covered this in profit as well.
• How accurate was my assessment of market context?
  • Doing my market prep I felt I lacked clarity on my hypos but real-time analysis was better.
• How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
  • I did fairly well here. I was not too worried about the counter-trend position because I took a smaller position and risked less than 0.6%
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • That trend trading is more suited to my risk tolerance.
• What’s one thing I need to do more often?
  • Have the patience to wait for a PB to technical level according to my setups
• What’s one thing I need to do less often?
  • Don’t take counter-trend trades when momentum is still strong. Wait for confirmation on the (TTF TT) before going against the trend.

Feedback?

Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.