23052019 Thursday – Following the Trend

23052019 Thursday – HTF D TC – TTF R DT 200MACAR 50MABD

Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Confirm As Resistance
• CAS = Confirm As Support
• UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
• LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
• DPP = Daily Pivot Point
• DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
• DS = Daily Support (pivot)
• WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
• WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
• HL = Higher Low
• HH = Higher High
• LH = Lower High
• LL = Lower Low
• SD = Standard Deviation
• VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = London Session (EU)
• NY = New York Session (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Lower Time Frame
• TTF = Trading Time Frame
• HTF = Higher Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

• Weekly goal
  • Eat less rice, noodles, etc. and more veggies
• How do you feel?
  • Feel good. Sharper than yesterday but let’s see how the day develops.
• How would you rate it (1-5)?
  • 4

Market Prep

Intraday Fundamentals

• API report
  • Latest Release Tuesday, May 21, 2019
  • Actual 2.400M
  • Forecast -0.600M
  • Previous 8.600M
• EIA report
  • Latest Release yesterday May 22, 2019
  • Actual 4.740M
  • Forecast -0.599M
  • Previous 5.431M

Intraday Technical Analysis

• HTF
  • Define context
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
      • High 62.988
      • PVAH 62.988
      • PPOC 62.584
      • PVAL 61.779
      • Low 61.026
    • Where is the LIS?
      • 61.20 area
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migration? What is the current market condition? Are we trending, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • Currently in an imbalance

• TTF
  • What trade locations among this structure would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • HTF D TC
  • What has the Asian Session printed?
    • Bounced on the prev low but are looking to duck underneath

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • TTF UKCCAR
  • Entry around 61.10
  • Targets 60.90, 60.75, 60.50
• Hypo 2 Long
  • Prev low CAS
  • Entry 61.20
  • Targets 61.40, 61.70
• Hypo 3 Rotational between 60.90 – 61.40

My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)

• Define winning
  • Only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to analyze later

Reading the Tape

• What is printing?
  • 16:05
    • A lot of A/D going on which makes sense since we are near the HTF D TC area
  • 16:35
    • HTF D TC – TTF R with a lot of A/D going on,
  • 17:05
    • Still not much going on. TTF R still in effect although this time a lot around 50MA and no move yet.
  • 17:35
    • Drop below TTF LKC possible continuation but not gonna break my rules and hop on
    • LTF DT is in effect
  • 18:05
    • POssible bottoming out here or move up to TTF VWAP or 50MA before another opportunity would arise for me
  • 18:35
    • Still haven’t dropped further. Looking for possible short term consolidation to VWAP before a further drop

Trade Management

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade

• T1 (Experimental on 2nd account)
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • HTF D TC
    • TTF
      • TTF R 50MABD
      • Entry 60.91
    • LTF
      • LTF50MAPB to LTF200MABD
  • SL
    • Wide SL at 61.24
  • TP
    • TTFLKC at 60.84
  • Trade Management
    • Scratched at 60.89

• T2
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • HTF DT
    • TTF
      • TTF TC
      • Entry 10 at 60.38
    • LTF
      • LTFUKC
  • SL
    • 60.50
  • TP
    • 60.28
  • Trade Management
    • Covered at 60.49

Daily Report Card

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • TTF UKCCAR
  • Entry around 61.10
  • Targets 60.90, 60.75, 60.50
• Hypo 2 Long
  • Prev low CAS
  • Entry 61.20
  • Targets 61.40, 61.70
• Hypo 3 Rotational between 60.90 – 61.40

	Date:	5/23/2019	Weekly Goal	Execute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)
	Combined Score	95
	Process Report Card (10 each)		Performance Report Card (10 each)
	7	Session PECS	90%	9	Real-time analysis
	9	Hypos	1/1	10	Setups Identified
	10	Trading the process	1/1	10	Setups taken
	10	Daily review	0	10	Erroneous Entries
	10	Progress toward Weekly goal	0	10	Erroneous Exits
	46	Total		49

• Weekly Goal
  • Only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to analyze later
• Review
  • I did well today. Took 2 trades.
    • First experimental (TTF R) but thinking to bring that over to my first account as well since it is happening so often lately. Also, because I am building a track record with the other 2 setups, might as well do that with the TTF R as well. I’ll think on this a bit more although having them on separate accounts might also keep things easier. First account is easier to use and has a better spread.
      • This experimental trade would have been very good hadn’t I covered it. Price not soon after dropped and I will be recording this for my Playbook and replay it.
  • Did have one TTF TC trade and even though according to my rules I didn’t do anything wrong I feel there is something to be learned here about the market structure. I will replay and take note of this in my playbook and see how often this occurs.

Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Mistakes (if any)	Sizing	Hit Target?	Reason to cover	Problem	Proposed solution
0	0	(Experimental) TTF R NT 50MABD	–	10	NO	Scratched – TTF R and also LTF R looks to be in effect and we dropped to LTF LKC which would mean a reversal so I covered instead of waiting for it to drop further	–	–
0	0	TTF TC	–	10	NO	Stopped Out	–	–

• How accurate was my assessment of market context?
  • Hypo 1 90% – did well here
  • Real-time analysis was excellent.
• How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
  • I seem to be getting tired early these days. Thought it was having had too much dinner yesterday and sleep could have been better but might be coming down with something. I’ll sleep early tonight and keep an eye on this.
  • Again, I feel I did great not taking any trades outside of my rules here so I am proud of that even though a few times I was thinking hard about taking a trade. Then realized it would have been out of FOMO and not because it was according to my plan. Stick to the plan my friend. Just do it.
  • Even though most of the time I am right when these FOMO “opportunities” come in terms of direction it is not my plan. My plan is when I am already in the trade and then we have a high momentum move. Not when it is already happening. You might get lucky for a few ticks, but when it doesn’t go your way, you’ll pay heavily for it.
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • Another confirmation: Plan the trade, trade the plan – Merritt
• What’s one thing I need to do more often?
  • Stick to my plan
• What’s one thing I need to do less often?
  • Thinking of jumping in on high momentum trades even though you might get a few tricks out of it. When it goes wrong. It goes WRONG.

Feedback?

Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.