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23052019 Thursday — Following the Trend

23052019 Thursday — Following the Trend

23052019 Thurs­day — HTF D TC — TTF R DT 200MACAR 50MABD

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

  • Week­ly goal
    • Eat less rice, noo­dles, etc. and more veggies
  • How do you feel?
    • Feel good. Sharp­er than yes­ter­day but let’s see how the day develops.
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 4

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • Lat­est Release Tues­day, May 21, 2019
    • Actu­al 2.400M
    • Fore­cast ‑0.600M
    • Pre­vi­ous 8.600M
  • EIA report
    • Lat­est Release yes­ter­day May 22, 2019
    • Actu­al 4.740M
    • Fore­cast ‑0.599M
    • Pre­vi­ous 5.431M

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • HTF
    • Define con­text
      • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
        • High 62.988
        • PVAH 62.988
        • PPOC 62.584
        • PVAL 61.779
        • Low 61.026
      • Where is the LIS?
        • 61.20 area
      • Dialling in on opportunities
        • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
          • Cur­rent­ly in an imbalance
  • TTF
    • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
      • HTF D TC
    • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
      • Bounced on the prev low but are look­ing to duck underneath

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Short
    • TTF UKCCAR
    • Entry around 61.10
    • Tar­gets 60.90, 60.75, 60.50
  • Hypo 2 Long
    • Prev low CAS
    • Entry 61.20
    • Tar­gets 61.40, 61.70
  • Hypo 3 Rota­tion­al between 60.90 — 61.40

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • Only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze later

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is printing? 
    • 16:05
      • A lot of A/D going on which makes sense since we are near the HTF D TC area
    • 16:35
      • HTF D TC — TTF R with a lot of A/D going on, 
    • 17:05
      • Still not much going on. TTF R still in effect although this time a lot around 50MA and no move yet. 
    • 17:35
      • Drop below TTF LKC pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion but not gonna break my rules and hop on
      • LTF DT is in effect
    • 18:05
      • POs­si­ble bot­tom­ing out here or move up to TTF VWAP or 50MA before anoth­er oppor­tu­ni­ty would arise for me
    • 18:35
      • Still haven’t dropped fur­ther. Look­ing for pos­si­ble short term con­sol­i­da­tion to VWAP before a fur­ther drop

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

  • T1 (Exper­i­men­tal on 2nd account)
    • Why? What do I see?
      • HTF
        • HTF D TC
      • TTF
        • TTF R 50MABD
        • Entry 60.91
      • LTF
        • LTF50MAPB to LTF200MABD
    • SL
      • Wide SL at 61.24
    • TP
      • TTFLKC at 60.84
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • Scratched at 60.89
  • T2
    • Why? What do I see?
      • HTF
        • HTF DT
      • TTF
        • TTF TC
        • Entry 10 at 60.38
      • LTF
        • LTFUKC
    • SL
      • 60.50
    • TP
      • 60.28
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • Cov­ered at 60.49

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Short
    • TTF UKCCAR
    • Entry around 61.10
    • Tar­gets 60.90, 60.75, 60.50
  • Hypo 2 Long
    • Prev low CAS
    • Entry 61.20
    • Tar­gets 61.40, 61.70
  • Hypo 3 Rota­tion­al between 60.90 — 61.40









Date:5/23/2019Week­ly GoalExe­cute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)















Com­bined Score95











Process Report Card (10 each)
Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)

7Ses­sion PECS90%9Real-time analy­sis

9Hypos1/110Setups Iden­ti­fied

10Trad­ing the process1/110Setups tak­en

10Dai­ly review010Erro­neous Entries

10Progress toward Week­ly goal010Erro­neous Exits

46Total
49








  • Week­ly Goal
    • Only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze later
  • Review
    • I did well today. Took 2 trades. 
      • First exper­i­men­tal (TTF R) but think­ing to bring that over to my first account as well since it is hap­pen­ing so often late­ly. Also, because I am build­ing a track record with the oth­er 2 setups, might as well do that with the TTF R as well. I’ll think on this a bit more although hav­ing them on sep­a­rate accounts might also keep things eas­i­er. First account is eas­i­er to use and has a bet­ter spread.
        • This exper­i­men­tal trade would have been very good hadn’t I cov­ered it. Price not soon after dropped and I will be record­ing this for my Play­book and replay it. 
    • Did have one TTF TC trade and even though accord­ing to my rules I didn’t do any­thing wrong I feel there is some­thing to be learned here about the mar­ket struc­ture. I will replay and take note of this in my play­book and see how often this occurs. 
Entry ErrorsExit ErrorsType TradeMis­takes (if any)Siz­ingHit Tar­get?Rea­son to coverProb­lemPro­posed solution
00(Exper­i­men­tal) TTF R NT 50MABD-10NOScratched — TTF R and also LTF R looks to be in effect and we dropped to LTF LKC which would mean a rever­sal so I cov­ered instead of wait­ing for it to drop further--
00TTF TC-10NOStopped Out--
  • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
    • Hypo 1 90% — did well here
    • Real-time analy­sis was excellent.
  • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
    • I seem to be get­ting tired ear­ly these days. Thought it was hav­ing had too much din­ner yes­ter­day and sleep could have been bet­ter but might be com­ing down with some­thing. I’ll sleep ear­ly tonight and keep an eye on this. 
    • Again, I feel I did great not tak­ing any trades out­side of my rules here so I am proud of that even though a few times I was think­ing hard about tak­ing a trade. Then real­ized it would have been out of FOMO and not because it was accord­ing to my plan. Stick to the plan my friend. Just do it. 
    • Even though most of the time I am right when these FOMO “oppor­tu­ni­ties” come in terms of direc­tion it is not my plan. My plan is when I am already in the trade and then we have a high momen­tum move. Not when it is already hap­pen­ing. You might get lucky for a few ticks, but when it doesn’t go your way, you’ll pay heav­i­ly for it. 
  • What’s one thing you learned today?
    • Anoth­er con­fir­ma­tion: Plan the trade, trade the plan — Merritt 
  • What’s one thing I need to do more often?
    • Stick to my plan
  • What’s one thing I need to do less often?
    • Think­ing of jump­ing in on high momen­tum trades even though you might get a few tricks out of it. When it goes wrong. It goes WRONG.

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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