23052019 Thursday — Following the Trend

23 May 23052019 Thursday — Following the Trend

23052019 Thurs­day — HTF D TC — TTF R DT 200MACAR 50MABD

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

• Week­ly goal
  • Eat less rice, noo­dles, etc. and more veggies
• How do you feel?
  • Feel good. Sharp­er than yes­ter­day but let’s see how the day develops.
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 4

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • Lat­est Release Tues­day, May 21, 2019
  • Actu­al 2.400M
  • Fore­cast ‑0.600M
  • Pre­vi­ous 8.600M
• EIA report
  • Lat­est Release yes­ter­day May 22, 2019
  • Actu­al 4.740M
  • Fore­cast ‑0.599M
  • Pre­vi­ous 5.431M

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HTF
  • Define con­text
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
      • High 62.988
      • PVAH 62.988
      • PPOC 62.584
      • PVAL 61.779
      • Low 61.026
    • Where is the LIS?
      • 61.20 area
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • Cur­rent­ly in an imbalance

• TTF
  • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • HTF D TC
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • Bounced on the prev low but are look­ing to duck underneath

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • TTF UKCCAR
  • Entry around 61.10
  • Tar­gets 60.90, 60.75, 60.50
• Hypo 2 Long
  • Prev low CAS
  • Entry 61.20
  • Tar­gets 61.40, 61.70
• Hypo 3 Rota­tion­al between 60.90 — 61.40

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze later

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 16:05
    • A lot of A/D going on which makes sense since we are near the HTF D TC area
  • 16:35
    • HTF D TC — TTF R with a lot of A/D going on, 
  • 17:05
    • Still not much going on. TTF R still in effect although this time a lot around 50MA and no move yet. 
  • 17:35
    • Drop below TTF LKC pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion but not gonna break my rules and hop on
    • LTF DT is in effect
  • 18:05
    • POs­si­ble bot­tom­ing out here or move up to TTF VWAP or 50MA before anoth­er oppor­tu­ni­ty would arise for me
  • 18:35
    • Still haven’t dropped fur­ther. Look­ing for pos­si­ble short term con­sol­i­da­tion to VWAP before a fur­ther drop

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

• T1 (Exper­i­men­tal on 2nd account)
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • HTF D TC
    • TTF
      • TTF R 50MABD
      • Entry 60.91
    • LTF
      • LTF50MAPB to LTF200MABD
  • SL
    • Wide SL at 61.24
  • TP
    • TTFLKC at 60.84
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Scratched at 60.89

• T2
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • HTF DT
    • TTF
      • TTF TC
      • Entry 10 at 60.38
    • LTF
      • LTFUKC
  • SL
    • 60.50
  • TP
    • 60.28
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Cov­ered at 60.49

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • TTF UKCCAR
  • Entry around 61.10
  • Tar­gets 60.90, 60.75, 60.50
• Hypo 2 Long
  • Prev low CAS
  • Entry 61.20
  • Tar­gets 61.40, 61.70
• Hypo 3 Rota­tion­al between 60.90 — 61.40

	Date:	5/23/2019	Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)
	Com­bined Score	95
	Process Report Card (10 each)		Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
	7	Ses­sion PECS	90%	9	Real-time analy­sis
	9	Hypos	1/1	10	Setups Iden­ti­fied
	10	Trad­ing the process	1/1	10	Setups tak­en
	10	Dai­ly review	0	10	Erro­neous Entries
	10	Progress toward Week­ly goal	0	10	Erro­neous Exits
	46	Total		49

• Week­ly Goal
  • Only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze later
• Review
  • I did well today. Took 2 trades. 
    • First exper­i­men­tal (TTF R) but think­ing to bring that over to my first account as well since it is hap­pen­ing so often late­ly. Also, because I am build­ing a track record with the oth­er 2 setups, might as well do that with the TTF R as well. I’ll think on this a bit more although hav­ing them on sep­a­rate accounts might also keep things eas­i­er. First account is eas­i­er to use and has a bet­ter spread.
      • This exper­i­men­tal trade would have been very good hadn’t I cov­ered it. Price not soon after dropped and I will be record­ing this for my Play­book and replay it. 
  • Did have one TTF TC trade and even though accord­ing to my rules I didn’t do any­thing wrong I feel there is some­thing to be learned here about the mar­ket struc­ture. I will replay and take note of this in my play­book and see how often this occurs. 

Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Mis­takes (if any)	Siz­ing	Hit Tar­get?	Rea­son to cover	Prob­lem	Pro­posed solution
0	0	(Exper­i­men­tal) TTF R NT 50MABD	-	10	NO	Scratched — TTF R and also LTF R looks to be in effect and we dropped to LTF LKC which would mean a rever­sal so I cov­ered instead of wait­ing for it to drop further	-	-
0	0	TTF TC	-	10	NO	Stopped Out	-	-

• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 1 90% — did well here
  • Real-time analy­sis was excellent.
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • I seem to be get­ting tired ear­ly these days. Thought it was hav­ing had too much din­ner yes­ter­day and sleep could have been bet­ter but might be com­ing down with some­thing. I’ll sleep ear­ly tonight and keep an eye on this. 
  • Again, I feel I did great not tak­ing any trades out­side of my rules here so I am proud of that even though a few times I was think­ing hard about tak­ing a trade. Then real­ized it would have been out of FOMO and not because it was accord­ing to my plan. Stick to the plan my friend. Just do it. 
  • Even though most of the time I am right when these FOMO “oppor­tu­ni­ties” come in terms of direc­tion it is not my plan. My plan is when I am already in the trade and then we have a high momen­tum move. Not when it is already hap­pen­ing. You might get lucky for a few ticks, but when it doesn’t go your way, you’ll pay heav­i­ly for it. 
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • Anoth­er con­fir­ma­tion: Plan the trade, trade the plan — Merritt 
• What’s one thing I need to do more often?
  • Stick to my plan
• What’s one thing I need to do less often?
  • Think­ing of jump­ing in on high momen­tum trades even though you might get a few tricks out of it. When it goes wrong. It goes WRONG.

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.