USDCAD – Week 23 Trading Plan

This is my weekly outlook on the Forex pair USDCAD. Basically the levels that I will be looking at where it has a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and market profile. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Here you can find last week’s trading plan:

https://bearmarkettrader.com/2020/05/23/usdcad-week-22-trading-plan/

Monthly – Bearish

• After previous month’s inside bar (closing below MN QHi), last month’s bar has closed below the MN conterminous supply 1.38071

Weekly – Bearish

• The weekly being in a phase 3 for some time now finally broke demand and traded and closed below range
• Last week closed with a substantial move away from W1 QHi and supply conterminous 1.39458 indicating a phase 4 in process

Daily – Neutral

• Base @ W1 QHi forming D1 conterminous supply 1.39884 with consequent drop
• D1 Consolidation below MN conterminous supply 1.38071

H4 – Neutral

• Extended phase 1 after a Phase 4
• Attempt at phase 2 last Friday with a big bull engulf however not sustained resulting in an inside bar
• Ranging between H4 conterminous 1.37283 – MN conterminous supply 1.38071

Sentiment summary – Neutral

• Larger timeframes are indicating a bearish sentiment however medium timeframes are indicating a potential contradiction. This due to the phase 1 on H4 and consolidation on D1 but would need a close away from consolidation to reassess short/medium term sentiment. 

ZOIs for Possible Shorts

• MN conterminous supply 1.38071
• W1 conterminous supply 1.39458
• D1 conterminous supply 1.39884
• D1 conterminous supply 1.40908

ZOIs for Possible Long

• H4 conterminous demand 1.37283

Focus Points for trading development

• Exit rules
  • Option 1: Time-based stop (under special circumstances extend by half an hour)
  • Option 2: Target hit (SL 20 pips + spread or x2 TP)
  • NO OPTION 3
    • UNLESS a trade is entered within 1 hour or half hour before the hard exit rule option 1
• Entry rules
  • Entry on TPO break of IB
  • Early entry with price action confirmation at 
    • H4 conterminous
    • Open far from value, anticipating a move back to value using an engulfing + subsequent break of TPO
  • Min. X2 R/R
  • Use TPO confirmation or invalidation for directional decisions by looking for in conjunction with H4 conterminous lines
    • TPO extension with a sustained move (BO from IB)
    • TPO extension with failed auction (return to IB)
    • How this direction of TPO extension relates to Value Area open sentiment
• I will post trades including:
  • Trade location
  • Price action entry condition
  • What were TPOs doing at the time
  • With screenshot
• Keep own approach of KC, VWAP as odd enhancers instead of hard trade locations