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This is my weekly outlook on the Forex pair USDCAD. Basically the levels that I will be looking at where it has a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and market profile. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out.
Here you can find last week’s trading plan:
Monthly – Bearish
- After previous month’s inside bar (closing below MN QHi), last month’s bar has closed below the MN conterminous supply 1.38071
Weekly – Bearish
- The weekly being in a phase 3 for some time now finally broke demand and traded and closed below range
- Last week closed with a substantial move away from W1 QHi and supply conterminous 1.39458 indicating a phase 4 in process
Daily – Neutral
- Base @ W1 QHi forming D1 conterminous supply 1.39884 with consequent drop
- D1 Consolidation below MN conterminous supply 1.38071
H4 – Neutral
- Extended phase 1 after a Phase 4
- Attempt at phase 2 last Friday with a big bull engulf however not sustained resulting in an inside bar
- Ranging between H4 conterminous 1.37283 – MN conterminous supply 1.38071
Sentiment summary – Neutral
- Larger timeframes are indicating a bearish sentiment however medium timeframes are indicating a potential contradiction. This due to the phase 1 on H4 and consolidation on D1 but would need a close away from consolidation to reassess short/medium term sentiment.
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- MN conterminous supply 1.38071
- W1 conterminous supply 1.39458
- D1 conterminous supply 1.39884
- D1 conterminous supply 1.40908
ZOIs for Possible Long
- H4 conterminous demand 1.37283
Focus Points for trading development
- Exit rules
- Option 1: Time-based stop (under special circumstances extend by half an hour)
- Option 2: Target hit (SL 20 pips + spread or x2 TP)
- NO OPTION 3
- UNLESS a trade is entered within 1 hour or half hour before the hard exit rule option 1
- Entry rules
- Entry on TPO break of IB
- Early entry with price action confirmation at
- H4 conterminous
- Open far from value, anticipating a move back to value using an engulfing + subsequent break of TPO
- Min. X2 R/R
- Use TPO confirmation or invalidation for directional decisions by looking for in conjunction with H4 conterminous lines
- TPO extension with a sustained move (BO from IB)
- TPO extension with failed auction (return to IB)
- How this direction of TPO extension relates to Value Area open sentiment
- I will post trades including:
- Trade location
- Price action entry condition
- What were TPOs doing at the time
- With screenshot
- Keep own approach of KC, VWAP as odd enhancers instead of hard trade locations
