Premarket Prep Gold 20210511

11 May Premarket Prep Gold 20210511

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 19 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
    • Doing one now

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Made a slight HH above last week’s range, still trad­ing with­in W1 QHi

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Yes­ter­day closed as a D1 Ham­mer clos­ing below D1-C‑S 1836.25 trad­ing with­in D1 QHi (below D1 200MA in R)
  • Price trad­ed high­er to H4-C‑S 1841.250 cre­at­ing an Evening Star return­ing to H4-C‑D 1831.05 before react­ing and form­ing a Bull Engulf
  • Poten­tial H4 Phase 3 (or reaccumulation) 
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP although hav­ing hit W1/D1 QHi there could be a poten­tial reversal. 
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ues in UT
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 23948
  • ASR: 12586
    • 315
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1845.350
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1829.940

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • D1-C‑S 1836.250 with­in val­ue at VAL
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, With­in Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.1xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 Bear Engulf
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance with near-prox­im­i­ty to val­ue there could be an accep­tance. OR due to D1 c‑sup just above VAL a test of val­ue before mov­ing down. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Return to Val­ue (Fake Val­ue Acceptance)
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 C‑sup above VAL with­in val­ue, price trad­ing with­in W1/D1 QHi
  • Pre­ferred: Strong bear­ish PA test­ing val­ue then clos­ing below, IB exten­sion down, sus­tained auction 
  • Con: H4 demand below
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: open sen­ti­ment in an UT
  • Pre­ferred: ear­ly close with­in val­ue with quick follow-through
  • Con: D1 C‑sup at VAL

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1‑C‑S 1847.50
• H4-C‑S 1841.250
• D1‑C‑S 1836.250

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1831.05
• H4-C‑D 1820.550
• H4-C‑D 1814.150

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
      • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

• Twit­ter
• Insta­gram