NY Premarket Prep WTI Crude 20210615

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This is my premarket prep for today’s European session for WTI Crude. This prep builds off of my weekly trade plan I made here:

WTI Crude 2021 Week 24 Trading Plan

The purpose of a premarket prep is to find setups within my weekly trade plan bias

Compared against Weekly Trading Plan

• Price trading above last week’s body and range nearing W1-C-S 73.340

Non-conjecture observations of the market

• Price action
  • Yesterday closed as a doji with longer selling wick but London already made a HH trading within D1-C-S 71.50.
  • H4 RBR at H4 VWAP in UT giving H4-C-D 71.037
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Prevailing trend: Trend is UP 3/3
• Market Profile
  • 2 overlapping values
• Daily Range
  • ADR: 1193
  • ASR: 1172
    • 29
  • Day
    • Yesterday’s High 71.762
    • Yesterday’s Low 70.712

Sentiment

• Locations
  • H4-C-D 71.037 at VAL
  • D1-C-S 71.50 within value
• Sentiment
  • NY open
    • Open within value at VAH
  • Open distance to value
    • N.A.
  • Premarket
    • H4 closed higher from H4 demand
  • Narrative
    • Balancing Market. However, H4 Continued closing higher from H4 demand and made HH during London. A M30 Three Inside Down before NY open (which was right at VAH)
• Clarity (1-5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 – Sustained Auction Down
  • Narrative: D1 Supply, M30 Three Inside Down permarket,
  • Preferred: IB extension down, sustained auction (taper profit target due to a wide value)
  • Con: D1 Bullish narrative
• Hypo 2 – Value Rejection Up / Sustained Auction Up
  • Narrative: D1/W1 Bullish narrative
  • Preferred: IB extension UP, sustained auction taking out D1 demand
  • Con: Open within value, ADR nearly exhausted
• Hypo 3 – Value Rejection Failure / Failed Auction
  • Preferred: price extends above and fails to find business. ADR exhaustion right above.
• Hypo 4 – Auction Fade
  • Narrative: Hypo 2 plays out, D1 Supply Pop gives an LTF reaction. Exhausts ADR
  • Preferred: TPO structure and PA reversal, target to IB edge
  • Con: D1 Bullish narrative
• Hypo 5 – Auction Fade
  • Variation to Hypo 1, possible reversal at H4 demand at VAL 

Additional notes

• Capital Preservation Rule in effect

ZOIs for Possible Shorts

• W1-C-S 73.340
• D1-C-S 71.500

ZOIs for Possible Long

• H4-C-D 71.037
• D1-C-D 70

Mindful Trading (lack of sleep?)

• Feeling okay

Focus Points for trading development

• Monthly Goals
  • No momentum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Weekly Goal
  • Min. 3 times working out at home + mandatory cardio
  • Use SL scaling in case the profit target for the setup doesn’t provide 2R for example for FA or VAA setups
• Risk Management
  • Without forcing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if possible 2. 
  • Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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