Gold 2021 Week 38 Trading Plan

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This is my weekly outlook on GOLD. The levels that I will be looking at with a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

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Monthly – Bearish

  • Price formed a Bear Engulf (although to me it is more of a consolidation) back in June rejecting MN QHi with no follow-through. Instead price has been trading within the supply (MN-C-S 1768.539) it had formed with last month closing as a DragonFly Doji reacting off MN-D-C 1739.674 (coinciding with MN VWAP in UT TC). To which price is currently trading below as well as just ducking below MN supply (coinciding with MN VWAP in UT)

Weekly – Bearish

  • W1 QHi rejected followed by W1 Bear Engulf with continuation arriving at W1 QLo

Daily – Bearish

  • D1 Three Inside Down rejecting D1 QHi with price currently trading mid-swing
  • D1 Morning Star formed giving D1-C-D 1754.268 below D1 LKC above MN-C-D 1739.674

Sentiment summary – Bearish

  • MN price is trading below MN supply and reached MN-C-D 1739.674 (coinciding with MN VWAP in UT).
  • W1 failed to take out W1 supply and continued down trading still above W1 QLo, MN and W1 demand
  • D1 reacted slightly after reaching MN demand through a Morning Star. If price fails to close lower there might be a slight pullback first before continuing down

Additional notes

  • Sep 23, 02:00, USD, Fed Interest Rate Decision

ZOIs for Possible Shorts

  • W1-C-S 1807.592
  • D1-C-S 1794.187
  • MN-C-S 1768.539

ZOIs for Possible Long

  • D1-C-D 1754.268
  • MN-D-C 1739.674

Focus Points for trading development

  • Monthly Goals
    • No momentum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
    • Total of 20 trades by the end of the month, preferably 2 a day (not in the same product at the same time) 
  • Weekly Goal
    • Use SL scaling in case the profit target for the setup doesn’t provide 2R for example for FA or VAA setups
    • No early exits, either hit SL or 2R target, latest cut-off 1:30 London time
  • Risk Management
    • 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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