DE30 DAX Week 31 Trading Plan

DE30 DAX Week 31 Trad­ing Plan

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This is my week­ly out­look on DE30 oth­er­wise known as DAX. Basi­cal­ly the lev­els that I will be look­ing at where it has a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and mar­ket pro­file. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me.

Month­ly — Slight­ly Bullish

• After a V‑shaped recov­ery cre­at­ing MN-C‑D 10825.85 price re-entered Q1 QHi and is test­ing MN-C‑S 12980.05
• Arrival at sup­ply isn’t entire­ly clean since last month we test­ed the lev­el as well
• Devel­op­ing month’s price trad­ing above pre­ced­ing month’s body and cur­rent­ly trad­ing with­in its range after extend­ing high­er into over­head supply

Week­ly — Slight­ly Bullish

• Week­ly demand cre­at­ed at W1-C‑D 12189.63 after what looked like a rejec­tion of MN1 QHi but then pro­ceed­ed to trade higher
• Almost reached over­head sup­ply at W1-C‑S 13550.48 before con­sol­i­dat­ing (through a ham­mer and shoot­ing star) and cre­at­ing new demand just below MN-C‑S 12980.05 with W1-C‑D 12919.54

Dai­ly — Slight­ly Bullish

• D1-C‑D 12615.96 demand cre­at­ed through a bear engulf stay­ing with­in W1 QHi
• D1-C‑S 13161.42 sup­ply cre­at­ed through some consolidation
• Price trad­ing above UKC and VWAP but in the mid­dle of D1 Q points

H4 — Slight­ly Bear­ish to Neutral

• H4 Bear Engulf cre­at­ing sup­ply H4-C‑S 13206.58 with unclean move away but test­ing sup­ply again with clean rejec­tion through an evening star to then have price return to H4-C‑D 12849.79 but with unclean arrival

Mar­ket Pro­file — Neutral

• After lit­tle brack­et­ing price gapped down and has trad­ed with­in its range from last Friday
• Cur­rent­ly LN opened with­in val­ue and tried to reject val­ue but failed

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Neu­tral to slight­ly bullish

• Low to medi­um time frames give a more neu­tral sen­ti­ment to even some bear­ish sen­ti­ment so would need more con­fir­ma­tion in terms of direc­tion. High­er time frames are more bullish. 

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• MN-C‑S 12980.05
• W1-C‑S 13550.48
• D1-C‑S 13161.42

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• MN-C‑D 10825.85
• W1-C‑D 12189.63
• W1-C‑D 12919.54
• D1-C‑D 12615.96
• H4-C‑D 12849.79

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Week­ly Goal
  • Have cor­rect SL place­ment and posi­tion sizing
  • Due to sum­mer time I will focus on trad­ing off new­ly formed SD ZOIs for intra­day plays. Keep­ing in mind that due to lack of liq­uid­i­ty 2nd chance entries can give bet­ter R/R using the M30/M15 rule.
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • Only take 2 trades a day but only have 1 active trade on between the assets
  • Only trade off M30 candles
  • Trad­ing Priority
    • FX pair out­side value
    • FX pair inside > Gold
    • 2+R prof­it dur­ing LN con­sid­er trad­ing PNYC
  • After 4 los­ing trades reduce TP to 1.5R but after 1R can con­sid­er tak­ing profits
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING