Gold 2021 Week 26 Trading Plan

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This is my weekly outlook on GOLD. The levels that I will be looking at with a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Monthly – Slightly Bullish

• Price traded higher (and closed on its high) from the Bull Engulf in April arriving at MN QHi
• Currently retraced all off last month’s bar but no close yet nearing MN-C-D 1741.655

Weekly – Bearish

• Last week closed as an Inside Bar with slightly longer selling wick trading slightly above W1-C-D 1774.420
• W1 QHi rejected with no arrival at W1 QLo (yet)

Daily – Neutral

• Possible D1 Phase 1 / 3 with Friday having formed a Bull Engulf with longer selling wick (longer selling wicks in entrie consolidation.
• D1 Supply and Demand created above W1 demand
• D1 QHi rejected with no arrival at D1 QLo (yet)

Sentiment summary – Slightly Bearish

• Price is nearing, but has not yet arrived at, MN-C-D 1741.655
• W1 had a big move down rejecting W1 QHi with no arrival at QLo and last week only pulled back slightly.
• D1 showing a possible phase 1 / 3, with 3 being in line with a possible continuation to W1 narrative. Price would need to break from D1 consolidation (and take out S or D) to confirm a direction. 

Additional notes

• Jun 28, 21:00 USD Fed’s Williams speech
• Jun 29, 01:10 USD Fed’s Quarles speech
• Jun 29, 20:00 EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)
• Jun 30, 15:55 EUR Unemployment Change
• Jun 30, 17:00 EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)
• Jun 30, 19:00 GBP BoE’s Haldane speech
• Jun 30, 22:30 USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
• Jul 01, 16:00 EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI
• Jul 01, 17:00 EUR Unemployment Rate
• Jul 01, 20:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
• Jul 01, 21:45 USD Markit Manufacturing PMI
• Jul 02, 03:00 GBP BoE’s Governor Bailey speech
• Jul 02, 20:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls

ZOIs for Possible Shorts

• D1-C-S 1779.092

ZOIs for Possible Long

• W1-C-D 1774.420
• MN-C-D 1741.655

Focus Points for trading development

• Monthly Goals
  • No momentum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Weekly Goal
  • Weekly Focus Points
    • Min. 3 times working out at home + mandatory cardio
  • Trading rules
    • Focus on taking ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be taken on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium initiative activity day.
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Buffer trades (profit target >1R) are allowed and encouraged
    • Use SL scaling in case the profit target for the setup doesn’t provide 2R for example for FA or VAA setups
    • No social media / messenger apps / phone calls allowed during the trading window
• Risk Management
  • Without forcing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if possible 2. 
  • Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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