Gold 2021 Week 28 Trading Plan

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This is my week­ly out­look on GOLD. The lev­els that I will be look­ing at with a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Bearish

• June closed retrac­ing all of May not with­in demand formed in April
• Trad­ing above MN VWAP in UT
• Price reject­ed MN QHi although closed as a con­sol­i­da­tion last month
• Price cur­rent­ly trad­ing with­in last month’s body

Week­ly — Bullish

• Price trad­ed high­er after the bull­ish Ham­mer took out W1 demand clos­ing above last week’s range
• W1 QHi was reject­ed and the bull­ish ham­mer came near QLo but did not touch it

Dai­ly — Bullish

• D1 phase 2 trad­ing at D1 VWAP in DT form­ing a RBR although price slowed down and Fri­day closed some­what weak.
• Price did not arrive at D1 QLo after QHi rejection.

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Bullish

• Even though MN QHi was reject­ed last month closed as a con­sol­i­da­tion. With price trad­ing at the bot­tom of the range there could be buy­ing pres­sure com­ing in short term. Longer term is bear­ish. Sell­ing ral­lies should be the pri­ma­ry focus still. 
• W1 closed high­er and might retest QHi before revers­ing (in line with pos­si­ble MN consolidation)
• D1 reached D1 VWAP in DT and price slowed down but did close high­er. No rever­sal yet. In case of a Bear Engulf there could be the shift in sen­ti­ment aligned with MN narrative. 

Addi­tion­al notes

• Jul 11, 20:10, EUR, ECB’s Pres­i­dent Lagarde speech
• Jul 15, 00:00, USD, Fed’s Chair Pow­ell testifies

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1888.863

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1769.224

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Week­ly Focus Points
    • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • Focus on tak­ing ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be tak­en on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day.
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Buffer trades (prof­it tar­get >1R) are allowed and encouraged
    • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
    • No social media / mes­sen­ger apps / phone calls allowed dur­ing the trad­ing window
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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