Gold 2021 Week 28 Trading Plan

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This is my weekly outlook on GOLD. The levels that I will be looking at with a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Monthly – Bearish

• June closed retracing all of May not within demand formed in April
• Trading above MN VWAP in UT
• Price rejected MN QHi although closed as a consolidation last month
• Price currently trading within last month’s body

Weekly – Bullish

• Price traded higher after the bullish Hammer took out W1 demand closing above last week’s range
• W1 QHi was rejected and the bullish hammer came near QLo but did not touch it

Daily – Bullish

• D1 phase 2 trading at D1 VWAP in DT forming a RBR although price slowed down and Friday closed somewhat weak.
• Price did not arrive at D1 QLo after QHi rejection.

Sentiment summary – Bullish

• Even though MN QHi was rejected last month closed as a consolidation. With price trading at the bottom of the range there could be buying pressure coming in short term. Longer term is bearish. Selling rallies should be the primary focus still. 
• W1 closed higher and might retest QHi before reversing (in line with possible MN consolidation)
• D1 reached D1 VWAP in DT and price slowed down but did close higher. No reversal yet. In case of a Bear Engulf there could be the shift in sentiment aligned with MN narrative. 

Additional notes

• Jul 11, 20:10, EUR, ECB’s President Lagarde speech
• Jul 15, 00:00, USD, Fed’s Chair Powell testifies

ZOIs for Possible Shorts

• W1-C-S 1888.863

ZOIs for Possible Long

• D1-C-D 1769.224

Focus Points for trading development

• Monthly Goals
  • No momentum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Weekly Goal
  • Weekly Focus Points
    • Min. 3 times working out at home + mandatory cardio
  • Trading rules
    • Focus on taking ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be taken on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium initiative activity day.
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Buffer trades (profit target >1R) are allowed and encouraged
    • Use SL scaling in case the profit target for the setup doesn’t provide 2R for example for FA or VAA setups
    • No social media / messenger apps / phone calls allowed during the trading window
• Risk Management
  • Without forcing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if possible 2. 
  • Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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