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Bear Market Trader | Lessons Learned
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For more info on each Gold Nugget please refer to the cor­re­spond­ing Dai­ly Report Card


#fintwit #orderflow #daytrading For a late-sustained auction entry direct into a supply or demand zone: I need faster paced price action testing TPO structure low (after a sustained auction) before closing as a Base. Due to a higher time frame supply this was not feasible today and the reversal was ‘confirmed’ through a weak failed auction.  Edit: Later on the initial thesis of a value rejection up and continuation was proven by a test of IB edge high (M15 Bull Engulf) and consequent move higher. Bonus lesson: Our job is to sit here and find alignment with the market. When an opportunity arises that fits our risk profile (based on a statistically proven setup) we execute a trade. Nothing more. Nothing less. For more info check out my Daily Report Card: https://www.bearmarkettrader.com/how-did-i-trade-today-01132021/ ...

Don’t expect any momentum play with an open within value coinciding with a Non-farm day. #fintwit #orderflow #daytrading For more info check out my Daily Report Card: https://www.bearmarkettrader.com/how-did-i-trade-today-01082021/ ...

#fintwit #orderflow #daytrading For more info check out my Daily Report Card: https://www.bearmarkettrader.com/how-did-i-trade-today-01072021/ Don’t act on FOMO just because you missed a trade. Missed the best opportunity. Just work out if there is another opportunity by staying objective. If I missed the trade I default into figuring out the details I missed and log them so I increase the possibility of catching it next time while staying objective to see if there is a new opportunity on the horizon. ...

#fintwit #orderflow #daytrading When there is a Poor Low formed on the profile it doesn’t mean it will get taken out during the session. Although in my experience this has been the case more than it has not been. Thus even with price action aligning with a failed auction at a large imbalance location with nearby H4 demand, I decided to sit this one out. Nothing wrong with that. Live and learn for next time. Build your experience. Don’t gamble. For more info check out my Daily Report Card: https://www.bearmarkettrader.com/how-did-i-trade-today-01062021/ ...

#fintwit #orderflow #daytrading When a new H4 supply is created within a D1 supply, even though the open was within value, we can move to a value rejection. This value rejection came through a 2nd chance entry few minutes after open and (as observed before) used the influx of participants at the London open as a driver to follow the move down negating the underlying demand. As hypothesized, this does increase the likelihood of a low/medium activity day. For more info check out my Daily Report Card: https://www.bearmarkettrader.com/how-did-i-trade-today-12232020/ ...

#fintwit #orderflow #daytrading In case of a newly taken out medium timeframe SD ZOI a mean reversion trade in the opposite direction could be risky. For more info check out my Daily Report Card: https://www.bearmarkettrader.com/how-did-i-trade-today-12222020/ ...

#fintwit #orderflow #daytrading I reaffirmed the way price behaves when there is supply/demand in its way to a target. When you have a large imbalance at the open and nearby H4 demand we can monitor for entries in the direction of a mean reversion. The lack of Medium time frame supply/demand makes lower time frame SD zones mere hurdles towards a target ie. low/medium initiative activity day. For more info check out my Daily Report Card: https://www.bearmarkettrader.com/how-did-i-trade-today-12212020/ ...

#fintwit #orderflow #daytrading When in a balancing market and there is no follow-through on a momentum play (ie. failure to dig and close deeper into underlying demand) we can go down to M5 looking for an entry playing off nearby lower time frame SD zones and monitor for a profile and price action confirmation transitioning into higher time frames: M15, M30 etc.  For more info check out my Daily Report Card: https://www.bearmarkettrader.com/how-did-i-trade-today-12172020/ ...

#fintwit #orderflow #daytrading When there is a medium/higher time frame narrative for a continuation to a move, we can see price bouncing back against the intended direction as well as anticipating a low/medium initiative activity day extending from the Initial Balance. Even creating Price Action formations against the narrative (ie. Bear Engulfings in a Bullish directional narrative). Look for subtle clues of confirmation of your directional bias (without marrying it). For example. Today we had weak price patterns against the narrative in the form of a bear engulf with very long buying wick as well as a small ‘indecisive’ bear engulf failing the auction. This is where OODA loops come in handy cycling through H1 and M15 for further confirmation (or disproving) the narrative. As usual, higher time frames prevail. For more info check out my Daily Report Card: https://www.bearmarkettrader.com/how-did-i-trade-today-12162020/ ...

I learned that with a H4 Phase 2 followed by a consolidation and strong finisher down we can have a wide IB range plus continuation to the move. Especially when considering that W1 demand is not that far away (SD ZOI acting as ‘magnets’. ...

A 1x IB range extension could warrant a failure of any failed auction and continue in the direction the profile extended to (also considering ADR had been exhausting during Asia prior). Confirming with price action we could be looking to trade on a sort of 2nd chance entry off the IB edge. Combine this with a LTF entry for a great setup. ...

That I can trust my instincts. When I don’t feel like trading I probably have a good reason for it. Consciously or subconsciously. Either way. I should never fight that voice. When a trade is obvious and screaming, begging for me to take it. I know. And I act. ...

A M30 consolidation near value in perspective of a predetermined hypo I could possible look for entries on M5. I have seen similar situations before. Took notes for playbook and #NEXT ...

I learned that with a developing H4 price pattern to guide me, the lower time frame price behaviour becomes way more apparent. Especially when combined with market open sentiment and profile confirming the thesis.  The developing price pattern was a H4 Rally Base Rally where the Rally after the Base wasn’t formed yet. But due to the H4 horizon being well… 4 hours long.. You can see on the lower time frames if indeed this rally is forming after the base was created. If it had gone the other way it would have been a THree Inside Down. Same principles of observation and analytics. ...

I learned that I can get back into the groove of things even though the markets have been so quiet lately. Today kind of brings a beam of light at the end of the tunnel and my boring days are over! 🙂 I’ve been waiting to prove to myself that I can do this and with only a few trades last month I still feel itchy to prove myself more. Having said that I feel I do really well to NOT TRADE when there are no opportunities. And if there are, that for the most part I have valid reasoning behind my reluctance (ie. new setup, gaining experience, etc.) ...

Proof that there is a reason for a wider average season range before getting involved. I’ve observed this before but thought perhaps I can make some sense of it and find an opportunity. ...

I reaffirmed that I should be more patient. I do pretty well with this but it’s just that I don’t seem to have that many opportunities during the LN session these last couple of weeks. But this is part of being a trader. Can’t just take trades for the sake of taking trades. Only good opportunities warrant trades. Period.  There is a lot I did wrong today but then I did manage to stick with the trade and ride it out using somewhat okay trade management. If I had just placed my SL lower I would have ended up risking more than 1R. ...

In times of continued range bound markets the M15/H1 combination seems to be working better. Will keep more taps on this. ...

I have seen Poor Lows before and they usually get taken out. For some reason I felt this one took way longer to get taken out. But in hindsight it wasn’t that long. I know that it is not a given it will get taken out. But when monitoring LTF PA and its failure to break out from VWAP I stayed bearish aiming for that poor low take out.  ...

I have encountered the following phenomenon multiple times now and will keep track of it. When approaching a large time frame c‑line from the inside of the demand/supply price tends to react and sometimes even reverse. I learned how I can use LN open influx of traders into an alignment with medium timeframe PA to trade with the direction. I have observed this time after time but today was my first time acting on it. ...

I reconfirmed that when SL placement is subpar the opportunity is most likely subpar as well, ...

I learned that even though I still make mistakes, they are not rookie rookie mistakes. They are mistakes I need some fine-tuning on. Furthermore, I learned that I can manage to dig myself out of a hole if the market provides me with such opportunity.  It feels so good to be in the thick of things again! After leaving the mentoring group at the end of last month I was sooo ready to get started ‘on my own’. Then the whole US elections happened and I had to sit on my hands the entire time prolonging the time for me to prove to myself that I can do this. I was going a bit crazy to find something to fill the gap to be honest. Good thing I already am crazy. Better than being normal: can I get a hallelujah!! 🙂 We all have these voices in our heads doubting and sometimes creating havoc but knowing that you know what to do when the time calls for it is golden my friend…  Gold. That only comes with experience. Never doubt yourself and your abilities even when others do. They don’t know what you know. They can’t. They don’t give a fuck. They don’t have to. Just you give a fuck. Now go on and give more fucks about yourself! 😛 ...

I don’t have to trade. Did well to, besides feeling tired, stay out due to today being the first day back at my desk watching the charts and taking notes. Having made my plans etc. ...

I learned that I can keep trading even when tired as long as I focus on the trading rules. Plus working out more definitely helps with staying more rational so as soon as I am done I’m hitting the gym again 🙂 ...

I learned a lot. Sat through a value acceptance that didn’t rotate straight away (not sure if it will either). I did well to gather that the candle closed deep into value, to then consider a delayed entry based on test of value edge. Due to price action being bullish I decided to take the limit order off. In hindsight I could have had another entry which I now learned and took note of. Will review the lessons learned. ...

My approach works pretty well on value inside days but need to confirm through more reviews and backtests. For now, take notes and forward-test as much as I can. ...

I learned that when I have a trading idea and act on it I have to let the trade play out based on hard exit rules. Entries M30/M15 based. Exits M30, profile or time-based. I can let go of making mistakes. Everyone makes mistakes and I don’t have to be an expert on everything right away. As long as I learn from my mistakes. Progress, not perfection.  It’s just the first trade of the month for me and it is the end of the month that matters. ...

D1 conditions take less precedence over H4 since the time frame portrays a longer time frame than relevant for intraday opportunities unless a D1 C‑Line is encountered.  Keep in mind the placement of c‑lines within the distribution curve. ...

I learned that my reading of price action gives me either clarity or it does not. The lack of clarity can be due to simply not understanding the narrative due to lack of experience and knowledge or simply because the market is not conducive to any good trades today. Whatever the reason for the lack of clarity my default setting is: do not trade. Usually when I have a good understanding I have the confidence to take a trade. Usually when my SL is hit it was the wrong trade to be in. If it was simply a move that did not work out I rarely get a full stop hit. Today, I went with aligning myself with narrative which I did well. Took trades based on my assumptions but due to either not fitting my rules or clarity level I opted for a paper trade to figure out if my assumption of narrative was correct.  ...

I learned that due to a D1 phase 2 taking out previous supply, even though a sustained trend previous day, we could see a continuation due to higher momentum further enhanced by the placement of the open, price action confirmation and momentum IB extension. That’s a long ass sentence  ...

I learned that I can switch gears if proven otherwise. That I am not married to my sentiment based on my hypos.  ...

Price was extra fast today. In my experience this happens when we are at HTF level and LTF people get shaken out.  ...

I learned that I can’t be trading if I am not bringing my A‑game. I did well to stay out but at the same time that is an opportunity I missed. Opportunities are scarce for me due to the time of the year and only trading one asset during London. I shouldn’t leave opportunities on the table.  ...

The first trade did not have a good profit target plus value acceptance should be closer to value from the get go. Thus it was another confirmation that I shouldn’t have taken the trade.I learned that even though I made a mistake I can stay composed and follow my rules for entering and exiting a trade based on my plan.  ...

I learned I can stay objective and shift gears changing biasOverlap noise plus GBP Monetary Policy Summary release make for a small storm in a teacup in the direction of profile sentiment.  ...

I don’t have to trade. Instead I took notes of a potential play within a narrative I dubbed the H4 VWAP BO (attempt). Lately, I have been doing well combining my old and new approach.  ...

Lifts weights when jumpy I can prove to not be married to my trades and cut off and even reverse.  ...