Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210223

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 8 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only take trades accord­ing to a hypo unless there are mul­ti­ple con­di­tions met

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing above last week’s body. Too ear­ly to say if we could be mak­ing a W1 RBR or Evening Star

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 formed a near-Doji with longer buy­ing wick after react­ing off D1-C‑D 1.91600, W1 QLo and D1 VWAP
  • H4 Bull Engulf after con­sol­i­da­tion giv­ing H4-C‑D 1.91865 with fol­low-through return­ing to D1 QHi and D1 VWAP pos­si­ble CAR although larg­er time­frame plus H4 price action could negate this.
  • Pre­mar­ket: Price trad­ed higher
• Mixed Trend: H4 Down, D1 up, W1 down
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 3 val­ues in DT with cur­rent­ly price trad­ing above value
  • ADR: 1153
  • ASR: 947
    • 25
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.92188
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.91450

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1.91865 with­in Val­ue at PPOC
  • D1-C‑D 1.91600 at VAL
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.4xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. Price opened above val­ue after reject­ing W1/H4 QLo and H4 is mov­ing high­er. Although with D1 QHi and D1 VWAP (pos­si­ble CAR) as well as D1 C‑sup in the way we could see a reversal. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value 
  • Nar­ra­tive: W1/H4 QLo rejec­tion, pos­si­ble W1 RBR in the making
  • Pre­ferred: Pull­back to VAH with bull­ish price action, IB exten­sion up (momen­tum) and sus­tained auction
  • Con: D1-C‑S 1.92730
• Hypo 2 — Swing Reversal
  • Nar­ra­tive: Ear­li­er D1 QHi rejec­tion, pos­si­ble W1 Evening Star in the making
  • Pre­ferred: Price action bear­ish rever­sal around D1 C‑sup IB exten­sion down. Mon­i­tor for val­ue acceptance
  • Con: Open sentiment
• Hypo 3 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: same as Hypo 1
  • Pre­ferred: Direct­ly trad­ing high­er tak­ing out LTF sup­plies clos­ing above D1 C‑sup with momen­tum exten­sion up.

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.94113
• D1-C‑S 1.92730

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.91865
• D1-C‑D 1.91600
• W1-C‑D 1.91185

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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