Premarket Prep USDCAD 05152020

This is my premarket prep for today’s European session for the Forex pair USDCAD. This prep builds off of my weekly trade plan I made here:

http://bearmarkettrader.com/2020/05/09/usdcad-week-20-trading-plan/

The purpose of a premarket prep is to find setups within my weekly trade plan bias.

Non-conjecture observations of the market

• Newly formed D1 Conterminous Supply 1.40663 with bear engulf after testing D1/H4 QHi & Previously established D1 Supply ZOI conterminous 1.40962, but price still above previous D1 Bear Engul conterminous 1.40364 from last 5/7
  • Congestion going up testing these levels, might see more congestion on the way down
• H4 Phase 3 consolidation and bear engulf (newly formed H4 C Supply almost exact with D1 @ 1.40931) into 4 @ D1/H4 QHi
• Price moved back into and under previous H4 Demand ZOI conterminous 1.40528 and has formed a inside pin bar with longer selling wick (no close on 3rd candle yet)
• Market Profile
  • HK trading below PVAL and range, also below London’s
  • Trading just above prev day low 1.40351 / D1 conterminous supply previous bearish engulf

Compared against Weekly Trading Plan

• Price still within MN Supply ZOI above conterminous 1.38146, 3rd developing candle still within previous inside bar body
• Price still in phase 3 on weekly above upper KC

Sentiment – Slightly Bearish

ZOIs for Possible Shorts

• PVAL 1.40883
• Prev day low 1.40351

ZOIs for Possible Long

• Prev day low 1.40351
• H4 QLo 1.4014
• H4 conterminous demand 1.40528

Focus Points for trading development

• Exit rules
  • Option 1: hold trade until noon (London time)
  • Option 2: Target hit (SL 20 pips or x2 TP)
  • NO OPTION 3
    • UNLESS a trade is entered within 1 hour or half hour before the hard exit rule option 1
• Entry rules
  • Use TPO confirmation or invalidation for directional decisions by looking for 
    • TPO extension with a sustained move (BO from IB)
    • TPO extension with failed auction (return to IB)
    • How this direction of TPO extension relates to Value Area open sentiment
  • No staring at M5 chart
  • Trade needs to have a target that has the chance of hitting min. X2 R/R
  • Can’t re-enter a trade for one hour after a loss