Premarket Prep USDCAD 05152020

15 May Premarket Prep USDCAD 05152020

This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair USDCAD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias.

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• New­ly formed D1 Con­ter­mi­nous Sup­ply 1.40663 with bear engulf after test­ing D1/H4 QHi & Pre­vi­ous­ly estab­lished D1 Sup­ply ZOI con­ter­mi­nous 1.40962, but price still above pre­vi­ous D1 Bear Engul con­ter­mi­nous 1.40364 from last 5/7
  • Con­ges­tion going up test­ing these lev­els, might see more con­ges­tion on the way down
• H4 Phase 3 con­sol­i­da­tion and bear engulf (new­ly formed H4 C Sup­ply almost exact with D1 @ 1.40931) into 4 @ D1/H4 QHi
• Price moved back into and under pre­vi­ous H4 Demand ZOI con­ter­mi­nous 1.40528 and has formed a inside pin bar with longer sell­ing wick (no close on 3rd can­dle yet)
• Mar­ket Profile
  • HK trad­ing below PVAL and range, also below London’s
  • Trad­ing just above prev day low 1.40351 / D1 con­ter­mi­nous sup­ply pre­vi­ous bear­ish engulf

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price still with­in MN Sup­ply ZOI above con­ter­mi­nous 1.38146, 3rd devel­op­ing can­dle still with­in pre­vi­ous inside bar body
• Price still in phase 3 on week­ly above upper KC

Sen­ti­ment — Slight­ly Bearish

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• PVAL 1.40883
• Prev day low 1.40351

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• Prev day low 1.40351
• H4 QLo 1.4014
• H4 con­ter­mi­nous demand 1.40528

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Exit rules
  • Option 1: hold trade until noon (Lon­don time)
  • Option 2: Tar­get hit (SL 20 pips or x2 TP)
  • NO OPTION 3
    • UNLESS a trade is entered with­in 1 hour or half hour before the hard exit rule option 1
• Entry rules
  • Use TPO con­fir­ma­tion or inval­i­da­tion for direc­tion­al deci­sions by look­ing for 
    • TPO exten­sion with a sus­tained move (BO from IB)
    • TPO exten­sion with failed auc­tion (return to IB)
    • How this direc­tion of TPO exten­sion relates to Val­ue Area open sentiment
  • No star­ing at M5 chart
  • Trade needs to have a tar­get that has the chance of hit­ting min. X2 R/R
  • Can’t re-enter a trade for one hour after a loss