Premarket Prep USDCAD 05212020

21 May Premarket Prep USDCAD 05212020

Pre­mar­ket Prep USDCAD 05212020 

This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair USDCAD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias.

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• What I thought was a morn­ing star on the Dai­ly (because of the third can­dle not hav­ing print­ed yet and thus was invalid) didn’t push high­er and we mean­dered with­in the D1 Demand ZOI
  • Price still with­in Demand ZOI and with­in QLo
  • No reac­tion from this level
• H4 show­ing con­ges­tion at Demand ZOI (inside bar with long sell­ing wick) but moved back up to Sup­ply con­ter­mi­nous 1.39385 (actu­al­ly to new­ly formed H4-C‑S 1.39330 from pre­vi­ous RBD, but is cur­rent­ly trad­ing above)
  • coin­cid­ing with VWAP but no cross
• M30 Range bound with consolidation/phase 3 below UKC
• Mar­ket Profile
  • HK look­ing like a P‑shape in the mak­ing (shorts cov­er­ing?) and trad­ing above value
  • Cur­rent­ly price is trad­ing with­in Lon­don val­ue, will update this with Lon­don open conditions
  • NY show­ing buy/up com­pos­ite day (not real­ly a trend day though) and cur­rent­ly price is trad­ing above it

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Week­ly Phase 3 still in play how­ev­er volatil­i­ty is pick­ing up
• Price below MN/W1 QHi

Sen­ti­ment — Slight­ly Bearish

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4 con­ter­mi­nous sup­ply 1.39385
• H4 con­ter­mi­nous sup­ply 1.39330 NEW

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4 con­ter­mi­nous demand 1.38879
• Pos­si­ble oppor­tunis­tic trade with a hold above D1 con­ter­mi­nous demand 1.39504

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Exit rules
  • Option 1: Time-based stop
  • Option 2: Tar­get hit (SL 20 pips or x2 TP)
  • NO OPTION 3
    • UNLESS a trade is entered with­in 1 hour or half hour before the hard exit rule option 1
• Entry rules
  • No con­sid­er­a­tion of ‘pat­terns’. Price action + trade loca­tion (high­er time­frame tak­ing prece­dence over lower)
  • Min. X2 R/R
  • Use TPO con­fir­ma­tion or inval­i­da­tion for direc­tion­al deci­sions by look­ing for in con­junc­tion with H4 con­ter­mi­nous lines
    • TPO exten­sion with a sus­tained move (BO from IB)
    • TPO exten­sion with failed auc­tion (return to IB)
    • How this direc­tion of TPO exten­sion relates to Val­ue Area open sentiment
• I will post trades including:
  • Trade loca­tion
  • Price action entry condition
  • What were TPOs doing at the time
  • With screen­shot
• Keep own approach of KC, VWAP as odd enhancers instead of hard trade locations