USDCAD – Week 20 Trading Plan

This is my weekly outlook on the Forex pair USDCAD. Basically the levels that I will be looking at where it has a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and market profile. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I am not selling you anything. I just love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Monthly – Bearish

• Clean rally to Monthly Supply ZOI 1.38146-1.46872, followed by inside bar (after rejection of Q1/Y1 QHi) just below upper KC in a ranging market that close below MN QHi
• Price has not left MN Supply ZOI still above conterminous line 1.38146
• Potential for normal formation or RBD

Weekly – Bearish

• Clear rejection of Q1/Y1 QHi within W1 Supply ZOI with multiple retests of W1 Conterminous Supply line 1.41850 indicating phase 3 distribution
• Price above upper KC in ranging market
• Last week tested W1 C supply with convincing move down to upper KC

Daily – Slightly Bearish

• Last Thursday Bearish Engulfing rejecting W1 C Supply now testing D1 Conterminous demand 1.39534
• D1 Demand ZOI 1.38501-1.39534 from April 30th having taken out Demand from April 14th prior

H4 – Bearish

• Move away from D1/H4 QHi to QLo
• Higher volatility ranging market
• Bearish engulfing at D1/H4 QLo with consequent testing of H4 Conterminous Supply line at 1.39378
• No H4 Demand ZOI formed yet

Market Profile – Bearish 

• Last week Monday- Thursday profile bracketing with Friday having moved away indicating a possible pickup in momentum

Sentiment summary

• Trend indicating Q1, MN1, W1 up, D1 down, H4 up
• Larger time frame price action indicating a possible swing reversal so unless proven otherwise my sentiment is bearish and will look for lower time frame setups in this direction
• Price within D1/H4 QLo so there is a chance for a swing reversal if price action can confirm a close outside of QLo

ZOIs for Possible Shorts

• H4 Conterminous Supply line at 1.39378
• H1 Conterminous Supply line at 1.39493
• M30 Conterminous Supply line at 1.39324

ZOIs for Possible Long

• D1/H4 QLo after confirmation of D1 or H4 bullish price action triggering a possible swing reversal in line with larger time frame trend being up

Focus Points for trading development

• Exit rules
  • Option 1: hold trade until noon (London time)
  • Option 2: Target hit (SL or x2 TP)
  • NO OPTION 3
• Entry rules
  • No staring at M5 chart
  • Trade needs to have a target that has the chance of hitting min. X2 R/R
• I will post trades including:
  • Trade location
  • Price action entry condition
  • What were TPOs doing at the time
  • With screenshot
• Learn how to use the Session Range Exhaustion
• Keep own approach of KC, VWAP as odd enhancers instead of hard trade locations