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Weekly Trading Plan Crude Oil, Gold (XAU USD) and S&P 500 (SPX500) 04192020

Weekly Trading Plan Crude Oil, Gold (XAU USD) and S&P 500 (SPX500) 04192020

This is my week­ly out­look on crude oil, gold and the S&P 500. Basi­cal­ly the lev­els that I will be look­ing at where it has a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Then I come up with ways I think the mar­ket might react around those lev­els. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my hypoth­e­sis. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I am not sell­ing you any­thing. I just love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Obser­va­tions of the mar­ket — Crude Oil

  • M: Still almost 2 weeks before the can­dle clos­es. Price is trad­ing in the bot­tom half of the can­dle but unclear if we’ll see more down­side. Will have to wait for the close of the can­dle. No Q points.
  • W: Con­sol­i­da­tion in process. Too ear­ly to say if it’s a pen­nant or flag. Con­tin­u­a­tion down pos­si­ble. Still 200+ ticks room on the down­side before hit­ting Week­ly Demand ZOI at 23.20. No Q points.
  • D: Failed to make a con­vinc­ing bull­ish move and the last 6 trad­ing days have all been clos­ing down. Fur­ther­more price is enter­ing Dai­ly Demand ZOI around 25.40. Q points active and QLo at 23.70. 
  • H4: Price fail­ure to hold above VWAP. H4 Q points same as Dai­ly. Stronger H4 Demand ZOI (8) right at QLo 23.70.

Hypo­thet­i­cals

Hypo1:

Short: BD with D TC VWAP pos­si­bly prompt­ing a 2nd leg down

Poten­tial tar­gets: 23.90, 22.80, 21.95, 20.60

Hypo2:

Long: Swing Rever­sal @ Dai­ly QLo With­in Dai­ly QLo, look for con­fir­ma­tion on low­er time frames

Poten­tial tar­gets: 24.80, 25.95, 26.65

Hypo3:

Long: Swing Rever­sal @ With­in Dai­ly QLo, look for con­fir­ma­tion on low­er time frames

Poten­tial tar­gets: 23.80, 24.80, 25.95, 26.65

Obser­va­tions of the mar­ket — Gold (XAU USD)

  • M: Price with­in Quar­ter­ly and month­ly QHi and Sup­ply ZOI
  • W: Long-wicked doji can­dle indi­cat­ing a pos­si­ble evening star in the making
  • D: Con­sol­i­da­tion below strong Sup­ply ZOI with con­se­quent BD
  • H4: Retest of H4 Sup­ply ZOI with an Evening star, price moved down to Demand ZOI and formed a bear­ish engulf­ing just above it.

Hypo­thet­i­cals

Hypo1:

Short: PB to 1700 area

Poten­tial tar­gets: 1680, 1670, 1655

Hypo2:

Long: Swing Rever­sal @ H4 QLo

Poten­tial tar­gets: 1665, 1680, 1695

Hypo3:

Short: D TC VWAP 

Poten­tial tar­gets: 1680, 1670, 1655,  1640, 1625

Obser­va­tions of the mar­ket — SPX500 (S&P 500)

  • M: Almost full retrace­ment of last month’s can­dle body how­ev­er still almost 2 weeks left.
  • W: Q Points active (retraced swing high low over 50%). Moved over VWAP. Not with­in Q Point.
  • D: Con­sol­i­da­tion below 50MA and con­se­quent gap up but closed as a doji
  • H4: Stronger Sup­ply ZOI (7) at 2936–2986

Hypo­thet­i­cals

Hypo1:

Short: Swing Rever­sal H4 Sup­ply ZOI

Poten­tial tar­gets: 2905, 2855, 2830


T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

15 Comments
  • T3chAddict
    Posted at 13:32h, 20 April

    WTI
    1:30 (local time) M30 Con­sol­i­dat­ing just above H4/D1 QLo after big rejec­tion of this level

    • T3chAddict
      Posted at 16:21h, 20 April

      WTI: Bull­ish engulf­ing above H4 QLo dur­ing AS but no move yet. IB just fin­ished. Mar­ket not mov­ing yet. Price with­in Devel­op­ing Val­ue Area (DVA)

      Gold: Price with­in H4 Demand ZOI but no push back. Price with­in DVA.

      SPX500: Slight drop and imme­di­ate retrace­ment more than 50%. Price with­in DVA. Lack of clar­i­ty at the moment

    • T3chAddict
      Posted at 17:18h, 20 April

      WTI
      MP show­ing pos­si­ble dou­ble dis­tri­b­u­tion in the mak­ing just above H4 Demand ZOI @ H4/D1 QLo, wait­ing for price action to con­firm a Swing Rever­sal set­up to go long.

  • T3chAddict
    Posted at 18:16h, 20 April

    WTI
    Thought con­fir­ma­tion was there in the form of a Three Inside Up and went long, got filled @ 23.689. Stop below H4 Demand ZOI @22.958, TP @ 24.800

  • T3chAddict
    Posted at 12:29h, 21 April

    GOLD
    Hypo1 got in play dur­ing 0420 US ses­sion. Look­ing for a poten­tial retest of the same 1700 lev­el + price action con­fir­ma­tion for a short.

  • T3chAddict
    Posted at 16:00h, 21 April

    WTI
    WIth­in H4/D1 QLo, look­ing for a swing reversal
    Opened out­side VA and out­side Range, pos­si­ble imbal­ance to con­tin­ue DT and no chance for a Swing reversal
    Will look for IB hold­ing and price action con­firm­ing the swing rever­sal (long)

    • T3chAddict
      Posted at 16:25h, 21 April

      Look­ing for IB exten­sion to the down­side. Broke H4 QLo. Look­ing for PB to Devel­op­ing VAL­to go short

  • T3chAddict
    Posted at 16:03h, 21 April

    Gold
    Test­ing 1700 area, look­ing for rejection
    Opened above VA and Range, pos­si­ble exhaus­tion and reverse
    Will look for price action con­firm­ing the rejec­tion + PB to enter short

    • T3chAddict
      Posted at 17:05h, 21 April

      Post­ed under the wrong post:
      Post­ed at 16:32h, 21 April REPLY
      Evening star went short @ 1693.74, SL1697.15, TP 1689.67

      • T3chAddict
        Posted at 17:08h, 21 April

        Took Prof­it 1X @ 1692.48

        I am still try­ing to get com­fort­able tak­ing trades in com­bi­na­tion with mar­ket pro­file and I under­stand I have to aim for AT LEAST 2X. I will mon­i­tor the trade to see if it would have reached my target.

        • T3chAddict
          Posted at 17:24h, 21 April

          Holy shit: It would have hit my tar­get at 1689.67 with ease. It obliv­er­at­ed it and dropped beyond Pre­vi­ous POC to 7X @ 1671

  • T3chAddict
    Posted at 16:05h, 21 April

    SPX500
    Test­ing H4 50MA
    Opened below VA and Range, pos­si­ble imbal­ance continuation
    Look­ing for IB to extend to the down­side and PB to go short

    • T3chAddict
      Posted at 16:16h, 21 April

      Price poten­tial­ly reject­ing H4 QLO, look­ing for PA to con­firm long after retest­ing 2800, how­ev­er still trad­ing with­in today’s IB

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