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This is my weekly outlook on crude oil, gold and the S&P 500. Basically the levels that I will be looking at where it has a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. Then I come up with ways I think the market might react around those levels. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my hypothesis. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I am not selling you anything. I just love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out.
Observations of the market – Crude Oil
- M: Still almost 2 weeks before the candle closes. Price is trading in the bottom half of the candle but unclear if we’ll see more downside. Will have to wait for the close of the candle. No Q points.
- W: Consolidation in process. Too early to say if it’s a pennant or flag. Continuation down possible. Still 200+ ticks room on the downside before hitting Weekly Demand ZOI at 23.20. No Q points.
- D: Failed to make a convincing bullish move and the last 6 trading days have all been closing down. Furthermore price is entering Daily Demand ZOI around 25.40. Q points active and QLo at 23.70.
- H4: Price failure to hold above VWAP. H4 Q points same as Daily. Stronger H4 Demand ZOI (8) right at QLo 23.70.
Hypotheticals
Hypo1:
Short: BD with D TC VWAP possibly prompting a 2nd leg down
Potential targets: 23.90, 22.80, 21.95, 20.60
Hypo2:
Long: Swing Reversal @ Daily QLo Within Daily QLo, look for confirmation on lower time frames
Potential targets: 24.80, 25.95, 26.65
Hypo3:
Long: Swing Reversal @ Within Daily QLo, look for confirmation on lower time frames
Potential targets: 23.80, 24.80, 25.95, 26.65
Observations of the market – Gold (XAU USD)
- M: Price within Quarterly and monthly QHi and Supply ZOI
- W: Long-wicked doji candle indicating a possible evening star in the making
- D: Consolidation below strong Supply ZOI with consequent BD
- H4: Retest of H4 Supply ZOI with an Evening star, price moved down to Demand ZOI and formed a bearish engulfing just above it.
Hypotheticals
Hypo1:
Short: PB to 1700 area
Potential targets: 1680, 1670, 1655
Hypo2:
Long: Swing Reversal @ H4 QLo
Potential targets: 1665, 1680, 1695
Hypo3:
Short: D TC VWAP
Potential targets: 1680, 1670, 1655, 1640, 1625
Observations of the market – SPX500 (S&P 500)
- M: Almost full retracement of last month’s candle body however still almost 2 weeks left.
- W: Q Points active (retraced swing high low over 50%). Moved over VWAP. Not within Q Point.
- D: Consolidation below 50MA and consequent gap up but closed as a doji
- H4: Stronger Supply ZOI (7) at 2936-2986
Hypotheticals
Hypo1:
Short: Swing Reversal H4 Supply ZOI
Potential targets: 2905, 2855, 2830
