WTI Crude 2021 Week 25 Trading Plan

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This is my weekly outlook on WTI Crude Oil. The levels that I will be looking at with a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Monthly – Slightly Bullish

• Price formed a MN RBR through Bull Engulf giving MN-C-D 62.343 with one test and continuation higher arriving at MN-C-S 69.762 (created pre-COVID)
• Price trading within MN QHi

Weekly – Slightly Bullish

• Last week closed higher as a spinning top with equal-long wicks and slight reaction off W1-C-S 73.267
• Price trading within last week’s body
• Trading within W1 QHi

Daily – Slightly Bullish

• D1 Three Outside Down giving D1-C-S 71.448 with no continuation. Instead price created some demand at D1 VWAP in UT giving D1-C-D 71.205 and is trading within supply

Sentiment summary – Slightly Bullish

• Price is trading at pre-COVID level continuing the bullish move
• W1 showing a continuation with only a slight reaction at W1 Supply and no reversal (yet)
• Possible start of a D1 Phase 1 or 3 as price pulled back with no continuation (yet)

Additional notes

• June 21st
  • ECB’s President Lagarde speech
• June 23rd
  • ECB’s Schnabel speech
  • ECB’s De Guindos speech
  • EUR – Markit PMI Composite
  • GBP – Markit Services PMI
  • USD – EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
  • USD – Fed’s Bowman speech
  • USD – Markit Manufacturing PMI
• June 24th
  • ECB’s President Lagarde speech
  • EUR – European Council Meeting
  • GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision
  • USD – Initial Jobless Claims
  • EUR – ECB’s Schnabel speech
• June 25th
  • EUR – European Council Meeting

ZOIs for Possible Shorts

• W1-C-S 73.267
• D1-C-S 71.448
• MN-C-S 69.762

ZOIs for Possible Long

• D1-C-D 71.205
• MN-C-D 62.343

Focus Points for trading development

• Monthly Goals
  • No momentum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Weekly Goal
  • Weekly Focus Points
  • Min. 3 times working out at home + mandatory cardio
  • Trading rules
  • Focus on taking ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be taken on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium initiative activity day.
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Buffer trades (profit target >1R) are allowed and encouraged
  • Use SL scaling in case the profit target for the setup doesn’t provide 2R for example for FA or VAA setups
  • No social media / messenger apps / phone calls allowed during the trading window
• Risk Management
  • Without forcing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if possible 2. 
  • Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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