This is my weekly outlook on WTI Crude Oil. The levels that I will be looking at with a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out.
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Monthly – Slightly Bullish
Price formed a MN RBR through Bull Engulf giving MN-C-D 62.343 with one test and continuation higher arriving at MN-C-S 69.762 (created pre-COVID)
Price trading within MN QHi
Weekly – Slightly Bullish
Last week closed higher as a spinning top with equal-long wicks and slight reaction off W1-C-S 73.267
Price trading within last week’s body
Trading within W1 QHi
Daily – Slightly Bullish
D1 Three Outside Down giving D1-C-S 71.448 with no continuation. Instead price created some demand at D1 VWAP in UT giving D1-C-D 71.205 and is trading within supply
Sentiment summary – Slightly Bullish
Price is trading at pre-COVID level continuing the bullish move
W1 showing a continuation with only a slight reaction at W1 Supply and no reversal (yet)
Possible start of a D1 Phase 1 or 3 as price pulled back with no continuation (yet)
Additional notes
June 21st
ECB’s President Lagarde speech
June 23rd
ECB’s Schnabel speech
ECB’s De Guindos speech
EUR – Markit PMI Composite
GBP – Markit Services PMI
USD – EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
USD – Fed’s Bowman speech
USD – Markit Manufacturing PMI
June 24th
ECB’s President Lagarde speech
EUR – European Council Meeting
GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision
USD – Initial Jobless Claims
EUR – ECB’s Schnabel speech
June 25th
EUR – European Council Meeting
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
W1-C-S 73.267
D1-C-S 71.448
MN-C-S 69.762
ZOIs for Possible Long
D1-C-D 71.205
MN-C-D 62.343
Focus Points for trading development
Monthly Goals
No momentum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
Weekly Goal
Weekly Focus Points
Min. 3 times working out at home + mandatory cardio
Trading rules
Focus on taking ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be taken on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium initiative activity day.
Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
Buffer trades (profit target >1R) are allowed and encouraged
Use SL scaling in case the profit target for the setup doesn’t provide 2R for example for FA or VAA setups
No social media / messenger apps / phone calls allowed during the trading window
Risk Management
Without forcing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if possible 2.
Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking