WTI Crude Week 30 Trading Plan

18 Jul WTI Crude Week 30 Trading Plan

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This is my week­ly out­look on WTI crude oil. Basi­cal­ly the lev­els that I will be look­ing at where it has a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and mar­ket pro­file. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Slight­ly Bullish

• MN trad­ing back inside KC and above last month’s range

Week­ly — Slight­ly Bullish

• W1 crossed over VWAP try­ing to re-enter KC how­ev­er still con­sol­i­dat­ing with­in supply
  • Slow W1 RBR or lad­der could be in progress
  • W1 sup­ply with W1-C‑S 37.770

Dai­ly — Neutral

• Dai­ly extend­ed tight range trad­ing below 41.429
• D1 Bull Engulf (@ VWAP) cre­at­ing new demand with D1-C‑D 40.377 and price cur­rent­ly con­sol­i­dat­ing above it
• D1 Price trad­ing above UKC and VWAP (although VWAP got touched a few times) how­ev­er still with­in D1 sup­ply D1-C‑S 39.804

H4 — Slight­ly Bullish

• Phase 1/3 going on
• H4 Bear Engulf with­in pre-exist­ing sup­ply H4-C‑S 40.865, cre­at­ing new con­ter­mi­nous: H4-C‑S B.E. 40.692 but no clean break just fur­ther meandering
• New H4 sup­ply cre­at­ed below H4-C‑S 40.538 with imme­di­ate demand cre­at­ed below through H4 bull engulf H4-C‑D 40.508

Mar­ket Pro­file — Slight­ly Bearish

• After 2 brack­et­ing days we opened below range

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Neutral

• Due to con­sol­i­da­tions on dif­fer­ent time frames there is no stronger bias in sen­ti­ment and would need a break from this range we are in now. Still lots of oppor­tu­ni­ties intra­day though due to new medi­um term SD ZOIs. Longer term bull­ish sen­ti­ment would be enhanced in case of a break­out from 41.429. 

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 39.804
• H4-C‑S 40.865
• H4-C‑S B.E. 40.692
• H4-C‑S 40.538

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 40.508
• D1-C‑D 40.377
• H4-C‑D 39.538
• D1-C‑D 38.977

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Week­ly Goal
  • Cor­rect posi­tion sizing
  • Have cor­rect SL placement
  • Due to sum­mer time I will focus on trad­ing off new­ly formed SD ZOIs for intra­day plays. Keep­ing in mind that due to lack of liq­uid­i­ty 2nd chance entries can give bet­ter R/R using the M30/M15 rule.
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • Only take 2 trades a day but only have 1 active trade on between the assets
  • Only trade off M30 candles
  • Trad­ing Priority
    • FX pair out­side value
    • FX pair inside > Gold
    • 2+R prof­it dur­ing LN con­sid­er trad­ing PNYC
  • After 4 los­ing trades reduce TP to 1.5R but after 1R can con­sid­er tak­ing profits
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING