WTI Crude Week 31 Trading Plan

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This is my week­ly out­look on WTI crude oil. Basi­cal­ly the lev­els that I will be look­ing at where it has a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and mar­ket pro­file. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me.

Month­ly — Slight­ly Bullish

• Devel­op­ing month is trad­ing above last month’s body but back with­in range after price made a new high tak­ing out supplies
• Price trad­ing with­in KC and hasn’t reached VWAP in an over­all rang­ing market
• Still a lot that can hap­pen in a week till can­dle close

Week­ly — Slight­ly Bullish

• Price has been trad­ing slow­ly above VWAP con­tin­u­ing incline and has re-entered KC
• New demand W1-C‑D 40.332 is formed through a con­sol­i­da­tion with con­se­quent weak­er attempt to break higher

Dai­ly — Neutral

• Mul­ti­ple demand ZOIs formed on dai­ly with D1-C‑D 35.727, D1-C‑D 38.947, and W1-C‑D 40.332 also being a dai­ly demand zone
• Price trad­ed away from the lat­ter but wasn’t sus­tained and formed sup­ply over­head through D1-C‑S B.E. 41.380
• No break away from the bear engulf though, instead price hov­ers above demand after test­ing over­head sup­ply and could war­rant more con­sol­i­da­tion on the medi­um term

H4 — Slight­ly Bullish

• Demands made at H4-C‑D 40.244 and H4-C‑D 40.714 with a push up high­er break­ing from range to form a sup­ply at H4-C‑S B.E. 41.888 no clean break away from sup­ply, instead mul­ti­ple tests after mov­ing low­er to H4-C‑D 40.714. Again unclean arrival here indi­cat­ing pos­si­ble phase 1 due to con­sol­i­da­tion and bull engulf with­in consolidation.
• No push away from the bull engulf though, instead a con­tin­u­a­tion of the con­sol­i­da­tion giv­ing new sup­ply H4-C‑S 40.996
• Longer buy­ing wicks fur­ther sug­gest­ing a pos­si­ble phase 1

Mar­ket Pro­file — Neu­tral to slight­ly bullish

• Mul­ti-day brack­et­ing with a slight dip below almost reach­ing M30 QLo fol­lowed by con­se­quent move higher
• Last Fri­day was a P‑shaped pro­file day for London

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Neu­tral to slight­ly bullish

• Larg­er time frames are look­ing bull­ish but price needs to break out of range to back this nar­ra­tive up. Until such time any­thing could hap­pen. As always, I will gauge intra­day sen­ti­ment for more clues.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S B.E. 41.380
• H4-C‑S B.E. 41.888
• H4-C‑S 40.996

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 40.332
• D1-C‑D 38.947
• D1-C‑D 35.727
• H4-C‑D 40.244

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Week­ly Goal
  • Have cor­rect SL place­ment and posi­tion sizing
  • Due to sum­mer time I will focus on trad­ing off new­ly formed SD ZOIs for intra­day plays. Keep­ing in mind that due to lack of liq­uid­i­ty 2nd chance entries can give bet­ter R/R using the M30/M15 rule.
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • Only take 2 trades a day but only have 1 active trade on between the assets
  • Only trade off M30 candles
  • Trad­ing Priority
    • FX pair out­side value
    • FX pair inside > Gold
    • 2+R prof­it dur­ing LN con­sid­er trad­ing PNYC
  • After 4 los­ing trades reduce TP to 1.5R but after 1R can con­sid­er tak­ing profits
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING