WTI Crude Week 31 Trading Plan

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This is my weekly outlook on WTI crude oil. Basically the levels that I will be looking at where it has a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and market profile. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me.

Monthly – Slightly Bullish

• Developing month is trading above last month’s body but back within range after price made a new high taking out supplies
• Price trading within KC and hasn’t reached VWAP in an overall ranging market
• Still a lot that can happen in a week till candle close

Weekly – Slightly Bullish

• Price has been trading slowly above VWAP continuing incline and has re-entered KC
• New demand W1-C-D 40.332 is formed through a consolidation with consequent weaker attempt to break higher

Daily – Neutral

• Multiple demand ZOIs formed on daily with D1-C-D 35.727, D1-C-D 38.947, and W1-C-D 40.332 also being a daily demand zone
• Price traded away from the latter but wasn’t sustained and formed supply overhead through D1-C-S B.E. 41.380
• No break away from the bear engulf though, instead price hovers above demand after testing overhead supply and could warrant more consolidation on the medium term

H4 – Slightly Bullish

• Demands made at H4-C-D 40.244 and H4-C-D 40.714 with a push up higher breaking from range to form a supply at H4-C-S B.E. 41.888 no clean break away from supply, instead multiple tests after moving lower to H4-C-D 40.714. Again unclean arrival here indicating possible phase 1 due to consolidation and bull engulf within consolidation.
• No push away from the bull engulf though, instead a continuation of the consolidation giving new supply H4-C-S 40.996
• Longer buying wicks further suggesting a possible phase 1

Market Profile – Neutral to slightly bullish

• Multi-day bracketing with a slight dip below almost reaching M30 QLo followed by consequent move higher
• Last Friday was a P-shaped profile day for London

Sentiment summary – Neutral to slightly bullish

• Larger time frames are looking bullish but price needs to break out of range to back this narrative up. Until such time anything could happen. As always, I will gauge intraday sentiment for more clues.

ZOIs for Possible Shorts

• D1-C-S B.E. 41.380
• H4-C-S B.E. 41.888
• H4-C-S 40.996

ZOIs for Possible Long

• W1-C-D 40.332
• D1-C-D 38.947
• D1-C-D 35.727
• H4-C-D 40.244

Focus Points for trading development

• Weekly Goal
  • Have correct SL placement and position sizing
  • Due to summer time I will focus on trading off newly formed SD ZOIs for intraday plays. Keeping in mind that due to lack of liquidity 2nd chance entries can give better R/R using the M30/M15 rule.
• Risk Management
  • Only take 2 trades a day but only have 1 active trade on between the assets
  • Only trade off M30 candles
  • Trading Priority
    • FX pair outside value
    • FX pair inside > Gold
    • 2+R profit during LN consider trading PNYC
  • After 4 losing trades reduce TP to 1.5R but after 1R can consider taking profits
  • 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING