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1919
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07052019 Tuesday — TTF50/200MA BD TTF NDT

07052019 Tuesday — TTF50/200MA BD TTF NDT

07052019 Tues­day — Trade Plan

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

  • Week­ly goal
    • Don’t eat rice/noodles
  • How do you feel?
    • Even though I slept more than 7 hours I still feel tired and not fit as I could be. I’ll need to have a good rest tonight as well to feel bet­ter I believe.
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 2

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • Lat­est Release Apr 30, 2019
    • Actu­al 6.810M
    • Pre­vi­ous 6.900M
    • Next Release May 7 (today)
  • EIA report
    • Lat­est Release May 01, 2019
    • Actu­al 9.900M
    • Fore­cast 1.485M
    • Pre­vi­ous 5.479M
    • Next Release May 8th
      • Fore­cast 0.744M

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • HTF
    • Define con­text
      • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
        • High 62.979
        • PVAH 61.851
        • PPOC 60.516
        • PVAL 60.361
        • Low 60.087
      • Where is the LIS?
        • PVAH area 61.85
      • What didn’t happen?
        • We didn’t con­tin­ue the HTF DT and seem to have bot­tomed out and have com­plet­ed a HTF Rever­sal to set up a HTF200MABO
  • TTF
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • Cur­rent­ly migrat­ed towards HTF200MA (62.50 area) after find­ing val­ue around 60.50 area and are look­ing to poten­tial­ly HTF200MABO to start a HTF UT
      • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
        • HTF200MABO although prob­a­bly a PB to HTF50MA is the best R/R
  • LTF
    • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
      • A gap down from TTF50MA to below TTFLKC and after­wards we trad­ed in a range bal­anc­ing with­in the TTFKC until we got near TTF200MA and we moved above the TTFUKC

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Short
    • Failed swing high into Prev High 
    • Entry around 62.65
    • Tar­gets 61.95, 61.50
  • Hypo 2 Long
    • Drop to LIS and hold
      • Entry around 61.95
      • Tar­gets 62.30, 62.75
  • Hypo 3 Short
    • LIS BD
    • Entry around 61.75
    • Tar­gets 61.50, 61.05

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is printing? 
    • 16:05
      • After Lon­don open we broke down from TTF200MA which is also HTF200MA and are now poten­tial­ly look­ing to con­tin­ue the TTF DT how­ev­er full bod­ied can­dles right above HTF50MA and LIS could mean pos­si­ble absorp­tion set­ting up a reversal
    • 16:35
      • We moved back to TTF VWAP but didn’t BO and formed a Doji there. How­ev­er we also didn’t drop fur­ther down yet either. After full bod­ied can­dles we now see some inde­ci­sion at this lev­el which could still indi­cate absorption. 
    • 17:05
      • TTF shows signs of more down­side how­ev­er there has been big push back at 61.90 lev­el but not big enough. We failed to cross LTF VWAP and I went short.
    • 17:35
      • LTF isn’t show­ing a sec­ond attempt at LTF50MABO and could be the start of a rever­sal here at LIS 61.85 area.
    • 18:05
      • We failed to cross TTF VWAP again and formed a few bear­ish can­dles how­ev­er it wasn’t fol­lowed by a big drop. Pos­si­ble rever­sal at this lev­el 61.90
      • Sell­ers are being absorbed it seems and we haven’t bro­ken 61.80 yet
    • 18:35
      • Not much going on on nei­ther buy­ing or sell­ing side
      • Crossed TTF VWAP but no big move yet
      • LTF is flat and is rotat­ing between KC near­ing LTF 200MA no direc­tion cho­sen yet
    • 19:05
      • We made a drop that is look­ing to BD from LIS
      • Price is still very sluggish 
    • 19:35
      • HTF shows pos­si­ble rever­sal can­dle below LIS and just above HTF LKC
    • 20:05

    Trade Man­age­ment

    Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

    • T1
      • Why? What do I see?
        • HTF
          • Drop to HTF50MA
          • With bull­ish rever­sal candle
        • TTF
          • Full bod­ied can­dles below LKC pos­si­ble reversal
        • LTF
          • Big­ger push­es to the upside than down
          • Entry 62.128
      • SL
        • 61.887
      • TP
        • 62.228
      • Trade Man­age­ment
        • Cov­ered when we didn’t have a TTF VWAP BO at 62.198
    • T2
      • Why? What do I see?
        • HTF
          • Pos­si­ble HTF 50MA BD
        • TTF
          • LL after VWAP FBO
        • LTF
          • PB to VWAP is entry at 61.960
      • SL
        • Hard SL 62.188
        • Soft SL 62.09
      • TP
        • 61.65
      • Trade Man­age­ment
        • Over­all con­text I believe we will bounce back up but TTF shows more down­side on the short/medium term so I went short
        • In the mon­ey and want to cov­er but I need to be patient
        • Saw a doji on the LTF and cov­ered. Not hap­py with this. I need to let mar­ket con­text on HTF dic­tate tar­gets. Not LTF.

    Dai­ly Report Card

    Date:5/7/2019Week­ly GoalExe­cute Play­book setups
    Com­bined Score72
    Process Report Card (10 each)Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
    9Pre-mar­ket routines7Hypos
    7Ses­sion PECS7Real-time analy­sis
    7Trad­ing the process5Trade selec­tion
    8Dai­ly review8Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.
    8Progress toward Week­ly goal6Risk Adjust­ed Returns
    39Total33

    Trade Idea

    • Hypo 1 Short
      • Failed swing high into Prev High 
      • Entry around 62.65
      • Tar­gets 61.95, 61.50
    • Hypo 2 Long
      • Drop to LIS and hold
        • Entry around 61.95
        • Tar­gets 62.30, 62.75
    • Hypo 3 Short
      • LIS BD
      • Entry around 61.75
      • Tar­gets 61.50, 61.05

    • Week­ly Goal
      • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market
    • Review
      • I did fair­ly well today even though I did make some minor mis­takes but I am not going to beat myself up over them. I rec­og­nized ear­ly what my mis­take was and reassessed my posi­tion and cut it off. 
    • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
      • Hypo3 played out but lat­er than I had hoped
    • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
      • Did fair­ly well here
    • What’s one thing you learned today?
      • It is OK to cut off posi­tions when you real­ize you’ve made a mistake
    • What’s one thing I need to do more often?
      • Be hon­est with my mistakes
    • What’s one thing I need to do less often?
      • Sec­ond-guess myself

    Feed­back?

    Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

    T3chAddict
    t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

    Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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