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15082019 Thursday — Trade Plan & Journal

15082019 Thursday — Trade Plan & Journal

15082019 Thurs­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • R = Range
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • HHTF = High­er High Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical
  • AD = Accu­mu­la­tion Distribution

  • align with mar­ket narrative?

    Trade Idea

    • Hypo 1 Short
      • HTF D TC 50MA
    • Hypo 2 
      • HTF D TT 50MABO
    • Hypo 3 Short/Long

      My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

      • Define win­ning
        • Only A/A+trade ideas based on good nar­ra­tive on 1st account (4 points)
        • Don’t wor­ry about P&L, let the trade work out based on mar­ket nar­ra­tive and have cor­rect sizing(4 points)
        • For­ward test setups on 2nd account that are aligned with trade idea (2 points)

      Read­ing the Tape

      • What is printing? 
        • 16:05
          • HTF
            • What is the mar­ket narrative?
              • Pos­si­ble HTF D TT 50MABO F because we have had fail­ure to BO and it looks inde­ci­sive. Smart mon­ey could be using this lev­el as an area to unload short positions
          • TTF
            • Lots of resis­tance at TTF R Over­bought 55.30 lev­el, basi­cal­ly flat here
            • Wait­ing for a BD of TTF R S line
          • Bias
            • Short
          • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
            • What set­up am I going to stalk?
              • HTF D TT 50MABO F
        • 16:35
          • HTF
            • What is the mar­ket narrative?
              • Pos­si­ble 50MABO after all?
          • TTF
            • Have not bro­ken 55.30 yet
          • Bias
            • Short until we breach 55.30
          • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
            • What set­up am I going to stalk?
              • HTF D TT 50MABO F
        • 17:05
          • HTF
            • What is the mar­ket narrative?
              • HTF D TT 50MABO F
          • TTF
            • TTF R Sup­port line got broken
          • Bias
            • Short
          • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
            • What set­up am I going to stalk?
              • HTF D TT 50MABO F, tar­get HTF LKC
        • 17:35
          • HTF
            • What is the mar­ket narrative?
              • Pos­si­bly look­ing for sup­port at HTF LKC
          • TTF
            • Drop with bro­ken SD lines indica­tive of pos­si­ble rever­sal which would coin­cide with HTF LKC giv­ing sup­port for the short to medi­um term
          • Bias
            • Unclear at the moment, slight­ly long because of pos­si­ble rever­sal at this lev­el but will need more confirmation
          • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
            • What set­up am I going to stalk?
              • HTF LKCCAS TTF D TT
        • 18:05
          • HTF
            • What is the mar­ket narrative?
              • Same ATM
        • 18:35
          • HTF
            • What is the mar­ket narrative?
              • Pos­si­ble HTF LKC BD
          • TTF
            • POs­si­ble TTF D TC VWAP
          • Bias
            • Short
          • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
            • What set­up am I going to stalk?
              • TTF D TC VWAP to con­firm pos­si­bil­i­ty of HTF LKC BD
        • 19:05
          • HTF
            • What is the mar­ket narrative?
              • Pos­si­ble bot­tom at HTF R Over­sold level
          • TTF
            • Pos­si­ble TTF D TT with exhaust­ed move
          • Bias
            • Long but need more confirmation
          • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
            • What set­up am I going to stalk?
              • None ATM
        • 19:35
          • HTF
            • What is the mar­ket narrative?
              • HTF R Oversold
          • TTF
            • TTF D TT LKCCAS
          • Bias
            • Long
          • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
            • What set­up am I going to stalk?
              • None atm
        • 20:05
          • HTF
            • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • TTF
            • Bias
              • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
                • What set­up am I going to stalk?

          Dai­ly Report Card

          Trade Idea

          • Hypo 1 Short
            • HTF D TC 50MA
          • Hypo 2 Long 
            • HTF D TT 50MABO
          • Hypo 3 Rotational
            • 54.70 — 55.30





          Dai­ly Report Card



          Date:8/15/2019



          Week­ly GoalExe­cute A+ / A setups



          Com­bined Score75



          Process Report Card (10 each)

          9Ses­sion PECS

          10Hypos

          5Mar­ket Prep

          10Dai­ly review

          6Progress tow. week­ly goal

          40Total






          Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
          100%10Real-time analy­sis
          2/210Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
          2/210Setups tak­en
          1/25Erro­neous Entries
          2/20Erro­neous Exits

          35total



          • Week­ly Goal
            • Only A/A+trade ideas based on good nar­ra­tive on 1st account (4 points)
              • There were none although trad­ed great new nar­ra­tive so excit­ed to test and learn more to add to my A/A+ setups
            • Don’t wor­ry about P&L, let the trade work out based on mar­ket nar­ra­tive and have cor­rect sizing(4 points)
              • I did wor­ry about this and my P/L reflects in a way that I would have been up so much more if I hadn’t cov­ered too soon. I am giv­ing myself a month or two to allow myself doing this while I focus on get­ting nar­ra­tive right and fol­low­ing it and less on exe­cu­tion. This is my next main focus of week­ly goal.
            • For­ward test setups on 2nd account that are aligned with trade idea (2 points)
              • Did real­ly well here. 
          • Review
          Trade IdeaPos.Entry ErrorsExit ErrorsType TradeSizeRea­son to cover
          1101HTF D TT 50MABO F (exper­i­men­tal)1FOLPMy first time hold­ing a core posi­tion but when it hit my first tar­get I cov­ered togeth­er with the next posi­tion and did not respect exit rule
          1201HTF D TT 50MABO F (exper­i­men­tal)10FOLPsee 1
          1301HTF D TT 50MABO F (exper­i­men­tal)10Deliv­ery guyact of god’ I guess… When this hap­pened I was in the mon­ey and even though I had stops in place I decid­ed to cover
          2410HTF LKC BD (exper­i­men­tal)10TPHit Tar­get
          2501HTF LKC BD (ADD) (exper­i­men­tal)10FOLPAt the time I was think­ing to take some risk off since I had 20 con­tracts in total (togeth with pre­vi­ous posi­tion) on the trade and closed 5 but I think it was actu­al­ly FOLP since I took the oth­er 5 off not too much lat­er only to see the mar­ket hit my would be TP level
          HTF LKC BD (ADD) (exper­i­men­tal)10FOLP
          • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
            • Hypo 1 — 100%
              • I did well here although I fig­ured out that this par­tic­u­lar nar­ra­tive is not quite like my ‘old’ approach would have dic­tat­ed. Learned the intri­ca­cies of a new nar­ra­tive that hap­pened to fit my ‘old’ nar­ra­tive approach. Super hap­py with this and get­ting bet­ter every time.
            • Real-time analy­sis — 100%
              • Did well here
          • Exe­cu­tion
            • Trade 1, 2, 3, and 5 had FOLP already addressed
            • Trade 4 I missed my best entry because I wasn’t look­ing at my screen but then I gath­ered that the premise of the set­up was still valid (anoth­er trend leg com­ing up) so I entered anyway
              • Hap­py that I entered, very unhap­py I didn’t stalk the oppor­tu­ni­ty and missed my best R/R. Had I got­ten in there I would have almost instant­ly be in the mon­ey. Which is one of my lat­er goals to focus on. 
          • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
            • P: Did well here
            • E: I had one out­burst get­ting annoyed with a tech­ni­cal issue I’ve been hav­ing on my PC but luck­i­ly I did not let it get in my way and stayed composed
            • CS: Did well here
          • What’s one thing you learned today?
            • I learned that all the lev­els I have deemed to be of val­ue in my mar­ket nar­ra­tive approach have a flip side as well when things don’t go the way they ‘should’. Like Lar­ry Alintof said: “when things that ‘should’ hap­pen don’t hap­pen”. This is a valu­able piece of infor­ma­tion in the mar­ket nar­ra­tive. Instead of hold­ing on to your bias, look at why you don’t see con­fir­ma­tion of your bias but rather clues in the oth­er direc­tion. This is of course eas­i­er said than done. Anoth­er great day for the books. The play­book that is:) 
          • Positive(s)
            • Took a first try on a core posi­tion which now that I think of it would have increased my 9% even more… Ah well… keep exper­i­ment­ing and see if it’s for you. Per­haps use sep­a­rate accounts. Take a posi­tion trade on one, take set­up trades on the oth­er. This might be inter­est­ing so will think on it some more. 
            • Took entries based on mar­ket nar­ra­tive even though I had missed the best entry. They don’t all have to be great trades as long as I fol­low mar­ket narrative. 
            • No video, social media, mes­sen­ger apps. Did great here. 
          • Negative(s)
            • Did not stalk a trade because I wasn’t pay­ing atten­tion to the screen. I think I kin­da got com­pla­cent after hav­ing pock­et­ed some wins think­ing I don’t have to push for more. When I am on a roll (although now on a roll with actu­al pro lev­el ‘on a roll’ is way dif­fer­ent, I can acknowl­edge that) I should push it instead of get­ting complacent.

          Feed­back?

          Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

          T3chAddict
          t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

          Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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