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20082019 Tuesday — Trade Plan & Journal

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20082019 Tuesday — Trade Plan & Journal

20082019 Tues­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • R = Range
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • HHTF = High­er High Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical
  • AD = Accu­mu­la­tion Distribution

Health review

  • Week­ly goal
    • Eat less carbs
  • How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insuf­fi­cient sleep?
    • I feel good. Had a good night’s sleep.
  • How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quar­ter posi­tion 1st 12 2nd 2, 4= half posi­tion = 1st 25 2nd 5, 5= full posi­tion = 1st 50 2nd 10
    • 5= full posi­tion = 1st 50 2nd 10

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • HHTF
    • What is the mar­ket narrative?
      • HHTF R above 50MA with cross over VWAP look­ing like it’s los­ing strength below UKC
  • HTF
    • Lev­els
      • Prev. High 56.243
      • PVAH 55.661
      • PPOC 55.249
      • PVAL 55.011
      • Prev. Low 54.736
    • What is the mar­ket nar­ra­tive and bias?
      • HTF HL get­ting more fre­quent pos­si­ble indi­ca­tion of more upside, PA is still above VWAP how­ev­er the price might drop to load up once more before mov­ing price up
  • TTF
    • Does the Asian ses­sion show clues that align with mar­ket narrative?
      • We had a gap down that got filled straight away how­ev­er this might be anoth­er sign of mar­ket fail­ing around this lev­el, TTF mov­ing side­ways over­bought over­sold condition

Trade Idea (Lack of clarity)

  • Hypo 1 Long
    • HTF U TC 50MA
    • Entry around 56
    • Tar­gets 56.40, 56.80, 57
  • Hypo 2 Long
    • HTF U TC VWAP
    • Entry around 56.20
    • Tar­gets 56.40, 56.80, 57
  • Hypo 3 Rotational
    • 55.70 — 56.20
  • Hypo 4 Short
    • HTF UKC CAR
    • Entry around 56
    • Tar­gets 55.85, 55.70, 55.45, 55.25

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • Only A/A+trade ideas based on good nar­ra­tive on 1st account (4 points)
    • Don’t wor­ry about P&L, let the trade work out based on mar­ket nar­ra­tive and have cor­rect sizing(4 points)
    • For­ward test setups on 2nd account that are aligned with trade idea (2 points)

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is printing? 
    • 16:05
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • HTF UT in effect above VWAP with a poten­tial bounce off VWAP
      • TTF
        • TTF R Over­bought back down to LKCCAS above 200MA with long-bod­ied AD going on pos­si­ble absorp­tion by bulls
      • Bias
        • SLight­ly long but need more con­fir­ma­tion since it looks like we could have had a UKC BO F
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
          • Unclear ATM
    • 16:35
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • Seems like lots of AD going on at this lev­el still not too clear on nar­ra­tive will have to wait for more clues although instinc­tive­ly I think we are going to BO here
      • TTF
        • TTF R AD above VWAP 50 after we had a LKCCAS above 200
      • Bias
        • Slight­ly long but need more confirmation
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
          • Unclear ATM
    • 17:05
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • HHTF is poten­tial­ly mak­ing a 200MACAR
          • HTF has a doji at this same lev­el so we might be rejec­tion this lev­el here
      • TTF
        • TTF R Over­bought but still above VWAP 50
      • Bias
        • Short but will need more con­fir­ma­tion in the form like a 50 BD although longer term is prob­a­bly long since PA is slow­ly creep­ing upwards
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
          • HTF VWAP BD
    • 17:35
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • Still same
    • 18:05
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • Still the same
    • 18:35
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • HTF UKC BO F
      • TTF
        • TTF R Pos­si­ble 200MA BD
      • Bias
        • Short
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
          • TTF D TC @ VWAP / 50
    • 19:05
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • Inde­ci­sive move down to HTF50, pos­si­bly part of a big­ger nar­ra­tive where smart mon­ey is try­ing to keep prices up to sell at a high­er price before it drops
      • TTF
        • TTF R R‑Line intact and pos­si­ble LKCBD
      • Bias
        • Short unless we break R‑Line
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
          • D TC R‑Line
    • 19:35
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
      • TTF
        • Bias
          • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
            • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • 20:05
          • HTF
            • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • TTF
            • Bias
              • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
                • What set­up am I going to stalk?

          Dai­ly Report Card

          Trade Idea (Lack of clarity)

          • Hypo 1 Long
            • HTF U TC 50MA
            • Entry around 56
            • Tar­gets 56.40, 56.80, 57
          • Hypo 2 Long
            • HTF U TC VWAP
            • Entry around 56.20
            • Tar­gets 56.40, 56.80, 57
          • Hypo 3 Rotational
            • 55.70 — 56.20
          • Hypo 4 Short
            • HTF UKC CAR
            • Entry around 56
            • Tar­gets 55.85, 55.70, 55.45, 55.25





          Dai­ly Report Card



          Date:8/20/2019



          Week­ly GoalExe­cute A+ / A setups



          Com­bined Score89



          Process Report Card (10 each)

          10Ses­sion PECS

          10Hypos

          10Mar­ket Prep

          10Dai­ly review

          10Progress tow. week­ly goal

          50Total






          Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
          100%9Real-time analy­sis
          1/110Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
          0/10Setups tak­en
          0/110Erro­neous Entries
          0/110Erro­neous Exits

          39total



          • Week­ly Goal
            • Only A/A+trade ideas based on good nar­ra­tive on 1st account (4 points)
              • Did well here and not trade at all since there were no A/A+ setups and I was hav­ing a tough time fig­ur­ing out the nar­ra­tive. Actu­al­ly, it wasn’t the nar­ra­tive that I had an issue with as much as it was my TTF not back­ing up the nar­ra­tive as much as I want­ed. Just a lack of clar­i­ty is what I’m say­ing I guess. Lat­er on I noticed what the struc­ture was that I need­ed to focus on but by then I missed my best entry so I stayed out (unless it would return to that tech lev­el again) and decid­ed to observe the remain­der of the ses­sion. Being flat is also a position. 
            • Don’t wor­ry about P&L, let the trade work out based on mar­ket nar­ra­tive and have cor­rect sizing(4 points)
              • Did well here to stay flat when lack of con­fi­dence in my under­stand­ing of the ses­sion. When I did fig­ure it out I wait­ed for a bet­ter entry which has not hap­pened (yet).
            • For­ward test setups on 2nd account that are aligned with trade idea (2 points)
              • Observed an exper­i­men­tal set­up instead of tak­ing trades
          • Review
          Trade IdeaPos.Entry ErrorsExit ErrorsType TradeSizeRea­son to cover
          No Trades Taken
          • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
            • Hypo 4 — 100%
              • Not well that it was the 4th Hypo to play out but good that I includ­ed it 
            • Real-time analy­sis — 90%
              • I took points off for not com­ing up with the struc­ture ear­li­er but then again it is some­thing very new that I have been work­ing on so cut­ting myself some slack here
          • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
            • P: Did well here
            • E: Did well here
            • CS: Did well here
          • What’s one thing you learned today?
            • I learned more about one of my exper­i­men­tal setups
          • Positive(s)
            • Stayed when there was lack of clarity
            • When clar­i­ty set in I wait­ed for a good entry to present itself but didn’t so I stayed out
              • Being flat is also a position
          • Negative(s)
            • I could have ‘caught on’ soon­er I guess but since this is a very nice addi­tion to my mar­ket approach I cut myself some slack and will nail it next time. 

          Feed­back?

          Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

          T3chAddict
          t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

          Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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