20210504 Trade Review GBPNZD

04 May 20210504 Trade Review GBPNZD

Play: Trend Continuation

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #trad­in­gre­view #price­ac­tion #chartre­view #GBPNZD

I have already reviewed these trades but I like to go back and review them again. Hence this new for­mat I am intro­duc­ing into my process.

How was the Entry?

H4 was show­ing strength in a move high­er (mak­ing HHs). Pre­mar­ket H4 closed high­er. IB took out H4 demand and IBR tra­versed 0.5xASR indi­cat­ing fur­ther strength behind the move. With open Above Val­ue, Out­side Range at 0.3xASR there was a mod­er­ate imbal­ance yet again hint­ing for a pos­si­ble continuation. 

Placed a Buy Stop order 3 pips above IBR in case of a momen­tum trade high­er which came dur­ing C TPO. C TPO closed above IB and with near­by ADR exhaus­tion it was more prob­a­ble for it to get exhaust­ed and thus I could mon­i­tor for a sus­tained auction. 

There was a D1 RBR tak­ing out D1 Sup­ply. H4 had made 3 can­dle clos­es high­er pre­mar­ket mov­ing high­er from H4 demand. Price opened 0.3xASR above val­ue out­side range indi­cat­ing a mod­er­ate imbal­ance. IB trad­ed high­er from VAH (tak­ing out H4 sup­ply dur­ing IB) and extend­ed above IB in C TPO. IBR was about 0.5xASR fur­ther­more indi­cat­ing strength behind the move. Anoth­er indi­ca­tor for a poten­tial con­tin­ued move high­er was the near­by ADR exhaus­tion a few pips above IBR. 

My entry was off IB exten­sion high­er although my Buy Stop Order got trig­gered before there was an actu­al exten­sion. This was weird as I had placed the order a few pips above IB high. 

Odds enhancer: D1 RBR, D1 Sup­ply popped, above val­ue, out­side range, mod­er­ate imbal­ance, IB exten­sion up entry, IB exten­sion up, momen­tum trade, 0.5xASR IBR, ADR exhaus­tion, Buy Stop Order, sus­tained auc­tion, high ini­tia­tive activity, 

How was the SL place­ment and sizing?

SL place­ment was good due to the momen­tum nature of the trade it can be for­giv­en that SL was placed through the formation. 

How was the prof­it target?

There was a H4/D1 sup­ply over­head that only gave a 1R tar­get. Although due to the momen­tum nature and pre­vi­ous­ly tak­ing out of H4/D1 sup­ply cou­pled with ADR exhaus­tion near­by I could have expect­ed the trade to go high­er. Which it even­tu­al­ly did and took out H4 sup­ply and con­tin­ued higher. 

There was anoth­er H4 sup­ply in the way at 1R prof­it which based on hind­sight analy­sis could have been some­what negat­ed. Most­ly due to the momen­tum nature of the trade cou­pled with an exhaus­tion of ADR. Trade end­ed up going to 3R so 2R would have been okay. 

How was the Exit?

Exit was not good as there was no exit sig­nal. Price was obvi­ous­ly show­ing a sus­tained auc­tion high­er. ADR got exhaust­ed. There was a mis­take I over­looked in pre­mar­ket prep. The H4 sup­ply I had indi­cat­ed was actu­al­ly a D1 Sup­ply and thus I thought there could be a big­ger reac­tion revers­ing the trade. 

Bad. This was the rea­son why I put myself on a Bart Simp­son exer­cise. I, again, grasshop­pered out of a per­fect­ly good trade. There was no price action based exit rule or any­thing to jus­ti­fy tak­en the trade off. I got jumpy dune to not hav­ing noticed the over­head H4 sup­ply actu­al­ly being a D1 sup­ply. BUt price action and order­flow cou­pled with exhaust­ing ADR all point­ed toward a sus­tained auc­tion and thus I should have stuck with the trade instead of tak­ing 0.2R profit. 

What would a price action-based exit have done for the trade?

2R would have hit and G TPO would have hit 3R.

Rever­sal came after 2R was reached through a M15 Bear­ish Inside Bar. Trae went to 3R max and exit would have yield­ed 1.7R.

What would a time-based exit have done for the trade?

1.5R

What could I have done better?

I could have not grasshop­pered out of the trade. To bat­tle this I have decid­ed to put myself on the Bart Simp­son exer­cise writ­ing 50 sen­tences for the next 7 days. The sen­tence is: I will trust my trad­ing skills and take my exits accordingly.

I could have stuck with the trade as it was a sus­tained auc­tion. I grasshop­pered out of the trade as I real­ized that the H4 sup­ply was in fact a D1 supply.

Obser­va­tions

A 0.5xASR wide IBR in the direc­tion indi­cat­ed strength. This cou­pled with a mod­er­ate imbal­ance at the open and near­by ADR exhaus­tion that in case of a momen­tum move high­er it would get exhaust­ed indi­cat­ing a fur­ther move in that direction. 

With Price action show­ing no rever­sal, order­flow show­ing a sus­tained auc­tion, IB tra­vers­ing 0.5xASR to near­ly exhaust­ing ADR. And a mod­er­ate imbal­ance at the open. There is a high­er prob­a­bil­i­ty for a sus­tained auc­tion negat­ing H4/D1 oppos­ing SD zones some­what. Still a bit risky and a bit more advanced. 

Missed Oppor­tu­ni­ty

N.A.

Pre­mar­ket prep on the day

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210504

Dai­ly Report Card on the day

How did I trade today? 20210504

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