20210622 Trade Review DAX

23 Jun 20210622 Trade Review DAX

Play: Val­ue Accep­tance to Failed Auction

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #trad­in­gre­view #price­ac­tion #chartre­view #DAX #DE30 #DE30Cash

Mar­ket Narrative

There was a 0.22xASR open Above Val­ue, With­in Range. Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. Close prox­im­i­ty to val­ue edge, pos­si­bil­i­ty for val­ue accep­tance after com­ing from H4 QHi and new­ly formed H4 sup­ply. Big move yes­ter­day (38000 com­pared to ADR 16305, 2.33xADR), could retrace. 

How was the Entry?

Th entry was bad. I gath­ered to not enter based on the val­ue accep­tance but instead I took a paper trade on a pull­back to val­ue edge. This turned out to have been a great entry. I did not want to take the trade short based off the VAA due to equi­ties often times test­ing val­ue and revers­ing at a LTF SD zone. Since there was a LTF demand with­in val­ue not far from VAH, this cou­pled with upwards bias in equi­ties, I decid­ed it was not worth it. 

Then Dee sug­gest­ed to me to go short any­way since there was enough ASR left in the ses­sion and a pos­si­bil­i­ty for con­tin­u­a­tion on the VAA. 

Bet­ter Entry

How was the SL place­ment and sizing?

SL place­ment could have been bet­ter above the wick of the van­dal that accept­ed val­ue. Expect­ing some momentum/strength behind the trade I did not take this into con­sid­er­a­tion. I gath­ered that if the trade came back prob­ing above the body it would inval­i­date the trad­ing idea. Also, the SL size was also slight­ly tighter than a stan­dard SL size.

How was the prof­it target?

In case of a full val­ue rota­tion this could have had a prof­it tar­get of 3.5R. I would have tak­en 2R depend­ing on the sin­gle prints left on the profile. 

How was the Exit?

At first it looked like it want­ed to probe down and my trade went to 1R before run­ning into buy­ers with­in the afore­men­tioned LTF demand with­in val­ue. M30 closed as a pin­bar / M15 Bull­ish Inside Bar / H1 Neu­tral can­dle but did close low­er. Since M30 had not made a full rever­sal pat­tern I decid­ed to let the trade go a bit longer and see if the next TPO would close below. 

E trad­ed high­er against my direc­tion com­plet­ing a M15 Three Out­side Up and tran­si­tioned into a M30 Bull Engulf. Under nor­mal cir­cum­stances this would have inval­i­dat­ed the trad­ing idea due to the failed auc­tion. This move had already tak­en out my SL for ‑1R.

Due to the VAA and W1 bear engulf pri­or week, as well as the big up day the day before the trad­ing idea could have still been valid. I had placed my SL slight­ly too tight and the next can­dle retraced the full length of the previous. 

What would a price action-based exit have done for the trade?

-1R got stopped out.

What would a time-based exit have done for the trade?

-1R Would have got­ten stopped out as price reversed based on the Failed Auc­tion and com­plet­ed the move high­er to IB high. Even extend­ing to form­ing a Neu­tral Day.

What did I do well?

I did well to try out a short based on the VAA and the larg­er time­frame premise. Even though I was stalk­ing a long trade based off the LTF demand.

What could I have done better?

If I was gonna do a val­ue accep­tance (VAA) trade I should have tak­ing it on the pull­back to VAH. This would have been a great entry. 

I could have iden­ti­fied the trade based on my own analy­sis that the trade wasn’t work­ing out.

Being in a DD I could have tak­en the 1R prof­it at least. 

Hind­sight is 20/20 as they say so nev­er mind. I did well to take the trade and try out trad­ing the crazy bun­ny that is DAX.

Obser­va­tions

When there is a huge day pre­ced­ing it that exceeds the ADR for the day, there can often be a retrace­ment of that day’s candle. 

Missed Oppor­tu­ni­ty

A Failed Auc­tion trade prob­ing LTF demand with­in value. 

TAGS: Prev. Day Exceed­ed ADR, Above Val­ue, With­in Range, Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance, Trend is UP 2/3,

Pre­mar­ket prep on the day

20210622 Pre­mar­ket Prep DAX

Dai­ly Report Card on the day

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