20210714 Trade Review GBPNZD

15 Jul 20210714 Trade Review GBPNZD

Play: Mean Rever­sion Sus­tained Auction

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #trad­in­gre­view #price­ac­tion #chartre­view #GBPNZD

Mar­ket Narrative

The pre­vi­ous day closed neu­tral. Asia took it way down to H4 QLo and start­ed con­sol­i­dat­ing. Trend is up 3/3. 1.32xASR Below Val­ue, Out­side Range, Large imbalance. 

How was the Entry?

Entry was off the break of IB which was good expect­ing a momen­tum sus­tained auction.

How was the SL place­ment and sizing?

SL was a bit wide. With expect­ing a sus­tained auc­tion on momen­tum the SL could have been stan­dard SL siz­ing but I want­ed to put the SL below the body of B peri­od in case of a pull­back as IBR was quite wide at 0.65xASR. I’ll be mind­ful to nev­er exceed the stan­dard siz­ing because if stan­dard siz­ing is not enough I should have prob­a­bly not been in the trade or my entry was off. 

How was the prof­it target?

Slight­ly over 2R at val­ue edge but with bet­ter SL place­ment this would have been even more. 

How was the Exit?

Exit was bad. I chick­ened out and want­ed to pock­et some prof­its. So took 0.3R and saw the trade hit 1.9R (more if I had bet­ter SL place­ment and thus siz­ing). Although I would have tak­en 1–1.5R for sure. 

The rea­sons for tak­ing off the trade pre­ma­ture­ly were: W1 sup­ply right above, some­what wide IBR (but not too bad), sum­mer­time trad­ing think­ing there could be less push behind the momen­tum move. 

What would a price action-based exit have done for the trade?

1R but I would have tak­en 1–1.5R, trade went up to 1.9R

What would a time-based exit have done for the trade?

0.4R

What did I do well?

I did well to take the trade even though I want­ed to take it easy. 

What could I have done better?

I could have let the trade go longer. At least wait for anoth­er M15 close and see if the auc­tion was sus­tained or not which it obvi­ous­ly looked like. 

Obser­va­tions

Sus­tained Auc­tion even though on momen­tum was a low ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day.

Missed Oppor­tu­ni­ty

There was an auc­tion fade play after a test of val­ue edge. Although with the trend being up 3/3 it would have been slight­ly risky. Also there was no TPO struc­ture build up at the moment of the move. It was the 2nd DTTZ and M5 was fal­ter­ing and closed with a big bar down with a con­se­quent retest of new­ly formed M5 sup­ply. It would have hit 1R with not much issue. 0.4R at time-based. 1.3R at over­lap noise cut-off.

TAGS: Trend is up 3/3, Below Val­ue, Out­side Range, Large imbalance, 

Pre­mar­ket prep on the day

20210714 Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD

Dai­ly Report Card on the day

How did I trade today? 20210714

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