20210826 Missed Trade DAX

27 Aug 20210826 Missed Trade DAX

Play: Failed Auction

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #trad­in­gre­view #price­ac­tion #chartre­view #DAX #DE30 #DE30Cash #missed­trade

These are trades I could have tak­en but for some rea­son I did not. This could be due to me not pay­ing atten­tion or sim­ply not feel­ing like trad­ing. This is usu­al­ly the case when I am not in the right state of mind due to lack of sleep, per­son­al issues, etc.

Rea­son for miss­ing the trade (explain the narrative)

There was an open 0.82xASR Below Val­ue, Out­side Range, Large Imbal­ance, indi­cat­ing a pos­si­ble mean rever­sion. This already came at the open as IBR tra­versed 1.1xASR. This wide of IBR is indica­tive of respon­sive activ­i­ty and any sus­tained auc­tion are bound to fail. Thus Failed Auc­tions or strength/weakness from with­in IBR are favored. 

I didn’t take the trade as I hes­i­tat­ed con­tem­plat­ing the impor­tance of the M30 Invert­ed Ham­mer extended­ing over IB in C then D form­ing a Poor High. In my expe­ri­ence these Poor High/Lows get tak­en out. I have now reaf­firmed that this is most like­ly the case in a sus­tained auc­tion. Not when expect­ing respon­sive activ­i­ty like we were on this day. 

What hypo was it?

Hypo 3

Failed Auc­tion Short, risky due to trad­ing at D1 demand and open sentiment

On the mon­ey. C extend­ed above as well D but then closed as a M15 Bear Engul with long sell­ing wick fail­ing the auction. 

What would have been the Entry?

Trade 1

DTTZ: 1st

Entry Method: M15 Bear Engulf with long sell­ing wick after a slight con­sol­i­da­tion pre­ced­ed it.

How was the SL place­ment and sizing?

Trade 1

SL place­ment: Slight­ly tighter than stan­dard right above the M15 wicks would have been great 

How was the prof­it target?

Trade 1

Prof­it tar­get: Due to the wide IBR a tar­get of IB low in this case would not have been real­is­tic. 3R was eas­i­ly hit although 2R would’’ve been enough. 

What would a price action-based exit have done for the trade?

Trade 1

Exit: 2R

What would a time-based exit have done for the trade?

Trade 1

Exit: 2R

TAGS: Below Val­ue, Out­side Range, Large Imbalance,

Extra Obser­va­tions

Poor Highs/Lows lose their edge on respon­sive days.

Pre­mar­ket prep on the day

20210826 Pre­mar­ket Prep DAX

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