20211103 Trade Review DAX - Bear Market Trader
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20211103 Trade Review DAX

20211103 Trade Review DAX

Play: Return to Val­ue Reversal

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #trad­in­gre­view #price­ac­tion #chartre­view #DAX #DE30 #DE30Cash

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  • Result
    • -1R
  • Prod­uct
    • DAX
  • Open Sen­ti­ment
    • 0.39xASR Above Val­ue, With­in Range, Mod­er­ate Imbalance
  • IBR
    • 0.30xASR
  • Hypo
    • 1
    • Return to Val­ue, Val­ue Edge rever­sal, pos­si­ble Failed Auc­tion Long
  • Attempt­ed Setup
    • Rever­sal
  • Entry Tech­nique
    • M30 Bull Engulf on the close of D TPO (2nd DTTZ)
  • SL place­ment
    • 25 pips due to tighter IBR and SL was placed well below IB low and PA formation
    • ASR/4 was 29, ASR short 27, 25 was with­in mar­gin of error 
  • TPO peri­od for Entry
    • E TPO
  • Trade Dura­tion
    • 5h30m
  • Long/Short
    • Long
  • Lead­ing Narrative
    • Pre­vi­ous day clos­ing near it’s high
    • Pre­vi­ous D1 Sup­ply got tak­en out
    • Open sen­ti­ment: above val­ue, with­in range, mod­er­ate imbalance
    • Larg­er time­frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment over­rul­ing D1 Sup­ply (high­er like­li­hood for it to get tak­en out)
    • WARNING CONJECTURE (just log­ging the sit­u­a­tion for my play­book): Pos­si­ble move ahead of rate deci­sion as I ini­tial­ly thought this move to take out Larg­er time­frame sup­ply could hap­pen tomor­row (Thurs­day) or even on Friday. 

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Actu­al Development

Price moved high­er but did not extend IBR until H TPO. H then closed right at IB high before revers­ing Fail­ing the Auc­tion. PRice then pro­ceed­ed to extend slight­ly to the down­side form­ing a Neu­tral Day. 

When NY opened price took out my SL by 3, 4 pips before shoot­ing high­er and even­tu­al­ly reach­ing over 4R.

Good points

  • Tak­ing a trade when uncom­fort­able with after­math of get­ting my 2nd shot
  • Tak­ing a trade in the first week of the month. I usu­al­ly don’t like that as non-farm and rate deci­sion make price action ‘weird’. 
  • I took the trade even though trad­ing right below D1 Supply, 
  • Rec­og­niz­ing Prev. Day had exceed­ed ADR and with that a pos­si­bil­i­ty for a pull­back (which did indeed come lat­er). I decid­ed for a retrace­ment of prev. Day to hap­pen in a strong uptrend price would need to accept val­ue which I deemed less like­ly espe­cial­ly in equities. 
  • Going to bed and let the trade do its thing

Bad Points

  • SL could’ve been slight­ly wider as price took it out and reversed almost instant­ly after
  • Entry was tak­en right into M30 con­ges­tion and was­n’t the strongest play. Bet­ter would have been if the con­ges­tion had been cleared before look­ing for an entry. 

Next Day Analysis

  • Tar­get hit?
    • No, ‑1R
  • Time-based Exit?
    • 0.7R
  • Over­lap Noise?
    • 0.1R
  • End of Day?
    • -1R
  • High­est R multiple?
    • 1R

TAGS: Above Val­ue, With­in Range, Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance, Trend is UP 3/3, Prev. Day Exceed­ed ADR, Move Ahead of Rate Decision, 

Pre­mar­ket prep on the day: ‌


Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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