20221207 Premarket Prep Gold - Bear Market Trader
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07 Dec 20221207 Premarket Prep Gold

Posted at 10:15h in Gold, Gold Premarket Prep, Trading Plan by
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#Fin­twit #XAUUSD #GOLD #Mar­ket­Pro­file #Order­flow

This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold 2022 Week 49 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Larg­er Timeframe

  • MN
    • Price made a HH but is now trad­ing with­in body, at MN VWAP
  • W1
    • Price retraced back with­in body to 50% mark of the pre­vi­ous week after hav­ing made a HH 

Nar­ra­tive

  • D1
    • D1 Con­sol­i­da­tion and break down below W1/D1 QHi, Invert­ed Ham­mer formed above D1 VWAP in UT
  • H4
    • Some H4 Phase 1 / 3 above H4 50MA in UT
    • H4 QHi reject­ed, price trad­ing mid swing
    • Some sup­ply giv­ing H4-C‑S 1772.410 with­in val­ue at PPOC
  • Trend
    • Trend is UP 3/3
  • Mar­ket Profile 
    • Wide val­ue cre­at­ed below the previous
  • LN Open
    • Open With­in Value
    • Asia formed a Neu­tral Day but most­ly trad­ed higher
    • 0.34xASR IBR

Addi­tion­al Notes

  • N.A. 

Hypos

  • Hypo 1
    • Short
    • Rever­sal, pos­si­ble Failed Auction
  • Hypo 2
    • Long
    • Failed Auc­tion
  • Hypo 3
    • Long
    • Late-Sus­tained Auction
  • Hypo 4
    • Short
    • Late-Sus­tained Auction

Clar­i­ty / Con­fi­dence (1 — 5, low to high)

  • 1

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

  • Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

  • Month­ly Goals 
    • Use SL scaling

T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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juan l.

Hey bud­dy good afternoon ?

Ques­tions on Gold:

1. On the H4 TF. would you con­sid­er the last 10 can­dles con­sol­i­da­tion or inde­ci­sion ? or does the bull­ish engulf­ing, fol­lowed by the inside bar sep­a­rate those can­dles into two groups ?

2. all this action is going on just below the D1 Qhi. how does that weigh on that price action ?

3. when you said wide Qhi Qlo in the email , are you refer­ing to the prof­it mar­gin multiples ?

4. I per­son­al­ly feel this is alot of inde­ci­sion, how does that match up to your thoughts ?

5. The 1HR TF is cre­at­ing alot of over­lap­ing demands, might that indi­cate a pos­si­ble rever­sal back into 1D Qhi to test the sup­ply above ?

I hope all these ques­tions hurt your brain 🙂

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juan l.

I just real­ized that I was look­ing at micro gold and the Q points are dif­fer­ent. Mup­pet meter is tick­ing upwards !!

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T3chAddict

Hi Juan,

Thanks for the ques­tions. I love hard ques­tions so keep them coming! 🙂

1. I referred to the price action as Phase 1 / 3 meaing price needs to break from this range before a more direc­tion­al cue can be tak­en. So there is some accumulation/distribution going on but no break yet. Open with­in Val­ue is not help­ing either.
This direc­tion­al cue can be had if D1 breaks low­er (as is usu­al­ly more prob­a­ble after a (Invert­ed) Ham­mer is formed com­plet­ing a DBD formation.
Usu­al­ly ham­mers spell con­tin­u­a­tions rather than rever­sals. Again trade loca­tion is important.
Since I use VWAP in my analy­sis as well this goes counter the pos­si­ble D1 DBD nar­ra­tive as D1 VWAP is right below and price is still in an uptrend. It seems the LN ses­sion does not want to make a move so this direc­tion­al move could come dur­ing NY.

2. It’s actu­al­ly not ‘just below the D1 QHi as price already moved low­er from it last Mon­day. The higher/lower you go up/down into a dis­tri­b­u­tion curve or swing high/low the more prob­a­ble it becomes that there will be a rever­sal. Right now it could go either way just based on the Swing High nar­ra­tive for the day. Although on a longer term a QHi rejec­tion usu­al­ly implies a move towards QLo. Although the ques­tion always remains which path it will fol­low. TBH I also don’t like that price just bare­ly missed test­ing the W1/D1 QHi and the rejec­tion move clos­ing low­er could just have been a short term reac­tion to D1 200MA. When­ev­er this lev­el gets touched for the first time (rel­a­tive­ly speak­ing) there is usu­al­ly some reac­tion. Now the ques­tion is if that reac­tion is sus­tained or if price will go and test it again.

3. No a Wide QHi/QLo refers to the actu­al dis­tance of the swing high/low. Not mea­sur­ing the dis­tance between but rather the top quar­tile a.k.a QHi from its top to where the QHi is placed. I’ve attached an image for your convenience.

4. I agree

5. Apart from doing that it is also con­tin­u­ous­ly test­ing H1 200MA in UT and H1 50MA in DT is con­verg­ing in what I like to call enter­ing an apex. Sim­i­lar to a tri­an­gle in “con­ven­tion­al” chart pat­tern read­ings. Usu­al­ly when a test of a lev­el hap­pens (SD, VWAP, MA, etc) it usu­al­ly means that that lev­el gets bro­ken. Obvi­ous­ly you need price action and trade loca­tion to con­firm. Just as a side­note I do not weigh in H1 analy­sis high­ly into my trad­ing plans as you might have noticed. For me it is just there so give a slight­ly more nuanced con­fir­ma­tion or nega­tion of a pos­si­ble nar­ra­tive that I might be stalk­ing. Also, in my expe­ri­ence when price behaves some­what “errat­ic” pos­si­bly through a tighter ASR the H1 becomes slight­ly more lead­ing in my analysis. 

I hope all my answers hurt your brain! 😀

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juan l.

ok now im con­fused. my Gold con­tract on AMP futures is show­ing a dif­fer­ent D1 Qhi

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T3chAddict

Is it a con­tin­u­ous con­tract that you are look­ing at?

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juan l.

Globex Feb 2023(GCEG23) on AMP futures it was the one with the most liq­uid­i­ty. It looks like the Qpoint cal­cu­la­tion might be off for some reason ?

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juan l.

In Dee’s live stream today i also not­cied she’s using the same con­tract im using and her D1 Qhi is lin­ing up with mine. So i won­der how this will affect your/mine trading ?

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T3chAddict

It’s pos­si­ble the dif­fer­ence between Futures and me trad­ing spot prices. I’d still like to see the dif­fer­ence if you can send/post a screen­shot though.

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