20221208 Premarket Prep Gold - Bear Market Trader
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08 Dec 20221208 Premarket Prep Gold

Posted at 10:14h in Gold, Gold Premarket Prep, Trading Plan by
1 Like

#Fin­twit #XAUUSD #GOLD #Mar­ket­Pro­file #Order­flow

This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold 2022 Week 49 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Larg­er Timeframe

  • MN
    • Price trad­ing above body, with­in range, at MN VWAP
  • W1
    • Price trad­ing with­in body, retraced to 50% mark,
    • Price trad­ing below W1 QH, W1 50MA in R

Nar­ra­tive

  • D1
    • D1 Three Out­side Up at D1 VWAP in UT giv­ing D1-C‑D 1770.923 Momen­tum below VAL
    • Price trad­ing below D1 200MA
  • H4
    • H4 Three Out­side Down giv­ing H4-C‑S 1787 Momen­tum fol­lowed by some consolidation
  • Trend
    • Trend is UP 3/3
  • Mar­ket Profile 
    • 2 over­lap­ping values
  • LN Open
    • Prev. Day Exceed­ed ADR by 1.01
    • 0.87xASR Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
    • Mod­er­ate to Large Imbalance
    • Asia trad­ed lower
    • 0.30xASR IBR

Addi­tion­al Notes

  • N.A.

Hypos

  • Hypo 1
    • Short
    • Late-Sus­tained Auction
  • Hypo 2
    • Long
    • Rever­sal, Pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion, Pos­si­ble Failed Auction
  • Hypo 3
    • Short
    • Failed Auc­tion
  • Hypo 4
    • Long
    • Auc­tion Fade

Clar­i­ty / Con­fi­dence (1 — 5, low to high)

  • 1

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

  • Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

  • Month­ly Goals 
    • Use SL scaling

T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

4 Comments
  • juan l.
    Posted at 15:43h, 08 December

    Morn­ing!! ( my time­zone) / Evening !! (your time­zone) . I will be ana­lyz­ing Spot Gold on a dif­fer­ent MT5 demo account so i can fol­low along with you. Thank you for the Lex­i­con as it is help­ing very much in fol­low­ing your analysis. 

    My thoughts : BOOLISH

    since there was a nice base formed in the H4 Qlo and a bull­ish engulf­ing i was think­ing we would vis­it the H4Q hi. There
    are no road bumps to get in the way. as of this morn­ing. there seems to be a Rally­BaseR­al­ly forming.
    I also noticed most of your mov­ing aver­ages are point­ing upwards

    BEARAH CASE : The Ral­ly base turns into a Phase 3 dis­tri­b­u­tion and we revis­it the H4 Qlo / Demand

    Ques­tions:
    1. What do you agree / dis­agree with about my analysis ?
    1. How much weight do you put in the angle of your mov­ing averages ?
    2. Do you think a ver­bose expres­sion of your analy­sis would help me cre­ate the nar­ra­tive for the day ? Is it some­thing you do ? or do you keep it most­ly technical ?
    3. There was a W‑C-S( 1775) that was touched last month and reject­ed. Now yes­ter­day was test­ed and trad­ed through. How does that affect your analysis ?

    I hurt you brain, please hurt mine 🙂

  • T3chAddict
    Posted at 05:38h, 09 December

    That’s a good idea. Yeah the time I got your mes­sage it was already bed time for me 🙂
    You’re wel­come. Glad to hear it’s helpful.

    1. Every TF’s con­text should be placed with­in a larg­er TF con­text. Hence the top down approach we use to under­stand the dif­fer­ent nar­ra­tives and how they come togeth­er for your par­tic­u­lar ses­sion. In this case I agree with you although it is not JUST because H4 QLo was reject­ed and THUS price is going to go to H4 QHi. The D1 nar­ra­tive showed a momen­tum move (D1 Three Out­side Up) counter the ini­tial sup­posed rejec­tion W1/D1 QHi (even though on my chart there was no touch and as I men­tioned before it was the 1st time touch of D1 200MA and could just be a reac­tion of that. Which it looks like it was as price is indeed creep­ing higher).
    2. In terms of the MAs I use them as lev­els where price COULD start react­ing. Trend or range. Price COULD start react­ing. For exam­ple as trend fol­low­ing lev­els or if price breaks the lev­el after a trend. The angle itself as well as how price is show­ing (or not show­ing) strength above/below it ie. is price trad­ing just above/below the MA or is there some dis­tance cre­at­ed between them indi­cat­ing strength. How long has the trend been going and at what stage of the dis­tri­b­u­tion curve is price devel­op­ing in rela­tion to the MAs. I include VWAP in this as well as Kelt­ner Chan­nels. Keep in mind that these are sup­port­ing fac­tors to what gov­erns and trumps every­thing else; PRICE ACTION. PA gives us these MAs, SD zone trade loca­tions, etc.
    3. So con­ven­tion­al read­ing of Sup­ply and demands get­ting tak­en out means there is strength into that direc­tion ie. more like­ly for a con­tin­u­a­tion. How­ev­er, I find that after an area gets tak­en out (espe­cial­ly D1 and up, but it also hap­pens on low­er time­frames. Don’t take my word for it go and test it) there usu­al­ly is some kind of short term rever­sal before there is a con­tin­u­a­tion. I call this “SD get­ting popped”. Like a bal­loon. It gets popped, price reversed short term, then con­tin­ues. This short term rever­sal for day traders like us can give a great oppor­tu­ni­ty to go “coun­tertrend” and is yet anoth­er tool in our belt to under­stand what is going on. Check out my “cat­e­gories and Tag search” option for some exam­ples (I just noticed I’ve used dif­fer­ent tags and cat­e­gories to iden­ti­fy these setups which I will try and clean up this weekend).
    Hence on the D1 I was yet again scep­tic if price would sus­tain the bear­ish move. That and the 1st touch of D1 200MA. No real touch of QHi. Today being Fri­day we can see that price had retraced in the devel­op­ing W1 can­dle to over 50% mark but now is trad­ing near its high again. Does that mean price will con­tin­ue high­er? NO. But it might 🙂 it’s def­i­nite­ly mak­ing a more bull­ish case then if price would have been stuck at or below the W1 50% mark of last week’s candle. 

    I hope I hurt your brain. For me?.… BRING ON THE HURT!

  • juan l.
    Posted at 10:05h, 09 December

    my brain hurts,

  • T3chAddict
    Posted at 11:09h, 09 December

    🙂

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