20221209 Premarket Prep Gold - Bear Market Trader
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20221209 Premarket Prep Gold

#Fin­twit #XAUUSD #GOLD #Mar­ket­Pro­file #Order­flow

This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Larg­er Timeframe

  • MN
    • Price trad­ing above body, out­side range, at MN VWAP
  • W1
    • Price made a HH, is now trad­ing with­in body, at MN 50MA in R, near Wide W1 QHi

Nar­ra­tive

  • D1
    • Price closed high­er but failed to close above D1 200MA, price test­ed D1-C‑S 1796.779
  • H4
    • H4 QLo reject­ed, price trad­ing mid swing
    • Price ral­lied giv­ing H4-C‑D 1789.470 HiDC
    • Pre­mar­ket formed an Inside Bar
  • Trend
    • Trend is UP 3/3
  • Mar­ket Profile 
    • Val­ue cre­at­ed above the previous
  • LN Open
    • 0.54xASR Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
    • Mod­er­ate to Large Imbalance
    • Asia trad­ed higher
    • 0.18xASR Very Tight IBR

Addi­tion­al Notes

  • N.A.

Hypos

  • Hypo 1
    • Short
    • Late-Sus­tained Auction
  • Hypo 2
    • Long
    • Rever­sal, pos­si­ble Failed Auc­tion, pos­si­ble continuation
  • Hypo 3
    • Long
    • Return to Val­ue, pos­si­ble Auc­tion Fade

Clar­i­ty / Con­fi­dence (1 — 5, low to high)

  • 1

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

  • Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

  • Month­ly Goals 
    • Use SL scaling

T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

4 Comments
  • juan l.
    Posted at 11:11h, 09 December

    Good evening !! quick obser­va­tions. web­site is lag­gy. Is it because its word­press ? regard­less con­tent is great .

    My thoughts :

    Week­ly is BOOLISH, but that rejec­tion of the Qhi ( which is a W+D Qhi) leads me to believe a pull back for
    this/next week, although cur­rent­ly seems like it will end up as an unde­cid­ed can­dle. Time will tell.

    Dai­ly is BEARAH, start­ing in begin­ning of Novem­ber their was strong Bull­ish momen­tum. girthy green can­dles, the sub­se­quent moves up were less promi­nent, and the bear­ish moves were gain­ing strength. now we have the hang­ing man can­dle, test of the W/D Qhi which was strong­ly reject­ed. the last three days look like an attempt to move high­er and the move is fiz­zling out. Todays can­dle looks to be form­ing a shoot­ing star. 

    H4 is BEARAH, price is grind­ing up all week. Looks like a tired race horse. could­n’t even test the H4 Qhi and is now form­ing an evening star pattern. 

    Con­clu­sion : Maybe a lit­tle more upside ( touch­es the H4 Qhi ) but Fol­low­ing TDA. down side is more like­ly today and next week.
    But as you have remind­ed me PRICE ACTION IS KING !

    Ques­tions:
    1. Your con­fi­dence has been low all week, Why is that ?
    2. What are your thoughts on my analysis ?
    3. Your rac­ing sim : you do For­mu­la one ?
    4. When you men­tion dis­tri­b­u­tion curve, are you refer­ring to the mar­ket pro­file or the dif­fer­ent phases ?

    My brain hurts, thanks Jeho­vah its Fri­day!!! then again week­ends is for studying (┬┬﹏┬┬)

  • T3chAddict
    Posted at 12:53h, 09 December

    What do you mean the web­site is lag­gy? Load­ing pages? It could be because I have a bunch of images but also the dis­tance of the serv­er as it is locat­ed in Europe. I’ll look into it. 

    1. I usu­al­ly per­form best when my clarity/confidence is around a 2. I think it’s a psy­cho­log­i­cal thing where my ego gets in the way if it’s high­er than a 3. I note down a low ie. lev­el 1 when I either lack some clar­i­ty and am real­ly try­ing to look what could tran­spire dur­ing the ses­sion and it’s not pop­ping out to me. Or when I am men­tal­ly not ful­ly ‘there’ due to what­ev­er can tran­spire through­out the day/week. Today I was too hyped for exam­ple. Not nec­es­sar­i­ly on caf­feine, just “too hap­py” :). I know when I am too hyped that I don’t per­form well so I take note of that and be extra cau­tious. I have red flags that are per­son­al to me that I keep track of to let myself know “hey some­thing might be up today”. This week I had a lit­tle more trou­ble find­ing the right setups to put into my preps (hence the lack of clarity/confidence) but in hind­sight I still did well. 

    2. I think that mak­ing assump­tions on price action with­out them hav­ing closed is a very slip­pery slope and you should prob­a­bly stay away from it now. Actu­al­ly scratch the ‘prob­a­bly’. Just don’t do it. Def­i­nite­ly from devel­op­ing can­dles on Low or Medi­um TF even I don’t do that. Once you get more expe­ri­enced you can start see­ing some pat­terns giv­ing you more insights into a devel­op­ing W1/MN can­dle. Price action from mid novem­ber is irrel­e­vant to a day trad­er today unless price is try­ing to test it.
    We need a pos­si­ble trad­ing loca­tion. The imbal­ance on the open. Assump­tion what could hap­pen at that loca­tion. Back­up plan if that does not hap­pen. Sit and wait for price action and pro­file to show us the way. Price action con­firmed the hypo? You’re good to go.
    As men­tioned before we are sim­ply try­ing to put the mar­ket with­in a sta­tis­ti­cal­ly viable con­text that is track­able and repeat­able. Then through read­ing of price action and mar­ket pro­file we can ‘gauge’ if our assump­tions are in align­ment with the assumed devel­op­ing mar­ket nar­ra­tive. As opposed to I think price is gonna go to this lev­el and look for clues that it pos­si­bly might ie. con­fir­ma­tion bias.
    I often feel like I’m a politi­cian. I say a bunch of things. Write a bunch of stuff in my plans but am not real­ly say­ing much (as in oh the mar­ket is gonna go up/down for sure and this is the rea­son why!). This is because of that con­fir­ma­tion bias trap. I’m more like a detec­tive or as I like to call it a mar­ket observer/researcher. I have my lev­els. Then I look at how price is behav­ing around them. If I’m in align­ment I get involved. If not? Sit and take notes as to what I might have missed (if any). I know some of the things were redun­dant in my feed­back but I’d real­ly like to dri­ve home that we are here to go WITH the mar­ket. Not try­ing to get the mar­ket to go with us. 

    3. I do love F1 but don’t real­ly watch it. I just I love high down­force fast cars. All the offif­i­cal F1 games suck. They are made for peo­ple on a con­sole and not for sim rac­ers like myself. The force feed­back is just ter­ri­ble. I do race on Auto­mo­bilista 2 with F1 cars which is pret­ty fun although not quite there yet either. I wish some­one would fix that. Are you into F1 and/or sim racing?

    4. In that case I was refer­ring to the dis­tri­b­u­tion curve of the price action through swing high/low. Basi­cal­ly what the Q points visu­al­ly rep­re­sent is that dis­tri­b­u­tion curve. Hence, going long at the top of that dis­tri­b­u­tion curve or QHi, or Swing High isn’t the most prob­a­ble route (unless there are oth­er fac­tors) as it is to go long at the bot­tom of the dis­tri­b­u­tion curve. So demands high in the DC are less strong as they are at the bot­tom. Hope that makes sense and I haven’t fried your brain by now. 

    I’m gonna help cook a din­ner and get away from the screens. I wish you a great week­end and I’ll do my best to answer your ques­tions asap.

  • juan l.
    Posted at 16:03h, 09 December

    1. I’m def­i­nite­ly going to include track­ing my emo­tions. thank you for that reminder
    2. I now have a T3chaddict tips sec­tion in my mar­ket­stalk­er note­book. con­fir­ma­tion bias res­onates with me (one of my prob­lems). no won­der your notes are so cal­cu­lat­ed and cold.…
    3. I watch race high­lights and i real­ly like the tech­ni­cal aspects of the cars and the rules sur­round­ing them
    4. buy low / sell high ( more to it though
    So you fry my brain and now you are going to fry some eggs ? Enjoy your week­end and that Brain/egg salad !!

    see you next time 😎👍

  • T3chAddict
    Posted at 06:03h, 11 December

    1. Good to hear
    2. Cold and cal­cu­lat­ed. I like it.
    3. I like get­ting bet­ter at race­craft but also build­ing stuff. I built my rig by myself. If you ever get into sim rac­ing let me know.
    4. Exact­ly. Buy low sell high 🙂 

    I think you ask good ques­tions so keep at it. That is if what’s left of your brain can han­dle it 🙂 Hope you’re hav­ing a great weekend.

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