26 Jun DAX 2021 Week 26 Trading Plan
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This is my weekly outlook on DAX. The levels that I will be looking at with a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out.
Monthly — Slightly Bullish
- MN Bull Engulf giving MN-C‑D 13694 and price continued higher making an all-time high
- Price currently trading above last month’s body
Weekly — Slightly Bullish
- W1 Bear Engulf giving W1-C‑S 15677.71 followed by last week forming a W1 Bullish Inside Bar with slight reaction off newly formed W1 Supply after reacting off W1-C‑D 15401.45. Price failed to close within the newly formed Supply.
Daily — Neutral
- D1 Three Inside Down at W1 Supply giving D1-C‑S 15628.40 with no continuation, instead a D1 Bullish Inside Bar (giving D1-C‑D 15606.96) with slight continuation closing above demand in the form of a Dragonfly Doji.
- No close within the newly formed supply.
- Possible D1 Phase 1 / 3
- Price rejected D1 QHi, bouncing twice off D1 50MA in UT, but is trading within QHi again.
Sentiment summary — Slightly Bullish
- Price made an all-time high and is currently trading above last month’s body at the top of the range
- W1 saw a little sell off but failed to close within W1 demand, instead continued higher through a W1 Bullish Inside Bar not closing within W1 Supply.
- D1 has some contradicting moves and has not clearly taken a direction although new demand is formed above a previous demand testing newly formed supply.
- Jun 28, 21:00 USD Fed’s Williams speech
- Jun 29, 01:10 USD Fed’s Quarles speech
- Jun 29, 20:00 EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)
- Jun 30, 15:55 EUR Unemployment Change
- Jun 30, 17:00 EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)
- Jun 30, 19:00 GBP BoE’s Haldane speech
- Jun 30, 22:30 USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
- Jul 01, 16:00 EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI
- Jul 01, 17:00 EUR Unemployment Rate
- Jul 01, 20:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
- Jul 01, 21:45 USD Markit Manufacturing PMI
- Jul 02, 03:00 GBP BoE’s Governor Bailey speech
- Jul 02, 20:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- W1-C‑S 15677.71
- D1-C‑S 15628.40
ZOIs for Possible Long
- D1-C‑D 15606.96
- W1-C‑D 15401.45
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- No momentum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
- Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
- Weekly Goal
- Weekly Focus Points
- Min. 3 times working out at home + mandatory cardio
- Trading rules
- Focus on taking ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be taken on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium initiative activity day.
- Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
- M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
- Buffer trades (profit target >1R) are allowed and encouraged
- Use SL scaling in case the profit target for the setup doesn’t provide 2R for example for FA or VAA setups
- No social media / messenger apps / phone calls allowed during the trading window
- Risk Management
- Without forcing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if possible 2.
- Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING