DAX 2021 Week 26 Trading Plan

26 Jun DAX 2021 Week 26 Trading Plan

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This is my week­ly out­look on DAX. The lev­els that I will be look­ing at with a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Slight­ly Bullish

• MN Bull Engulf giv­ing MN-C‑D 13694 and price con­tin­ued high­er mak­ing an all-time high
• Price cur­rent­ly trad­ing above last month’s body

Week­ly — Slight­ly Bullish

• W1 Bear Engulf giv­ing W1-C‑S 15677.71 fol­lowed by last week form­ing a W1 Bull­ish Inside Bar with slight reac­tion off new­ly formed W1 Sup­ply after react­ing off W1-C‑D 15401.45. Price failed to close with­in the new­ly formed Supply.

Dai­ly — Neutral

• D1 Three Inside Down at W1 Sup­ply giv­ing D1-C‑S 15628.40 with no con­tin­u­a­tion, instead a D1 Bull­ish Inside Bar (giv­ing D1-C‑D 15606.96) with slight con­tin­u­a­tion clos­ing above demand in the form of a Drag­on­fly Doji. 
• No close with­in the new­ly formed supply.
• Pos­si­ble D1 Phase 1 / 3
• Price reject­ed D1 QHi, bounc­ing twice off D1 50MA in UT, but is trad­ing with­in QHi again.

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Slight­ly Bullish

• Price made an all-time high and is cur­rent­ly trad­ing above last month’s body at the top of the range
• W1 saw a lit­tle sell off but failed to close with­in W1 demand, instead con­tin­ued high­er through a W1 Bull­ish Inside Bar not clos­ing with­in W1 Supply. 
• D1 has some con­tra­dict­ing moves and has not clear­ly tak­en a direc­tion although new demand is formed above a pre­vi­ous demand test­ing new­ly formed supply. 

Addi­tion­al notes

• Jun 28, 21:00 USD Fed’s Williams speech
• Jun 29, 01:10 USD Fed’s Quar­les speech
• Jun 29, 20:00 EUR Con­sumer Price Index (YoY)
• Jun 30, 15:55 EUR Unem­ploy­ment Change
• Jun 30, 17:00 EUR Con­sumer Price Index (YoY)
• Jun 30, 19:00 GBP BoE’s Hal­dane speech
• Jun 30, 22:30 USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
• Jul 01, 16:00 EUR Mark­it Man­u­fac­tur­ing PMI
• Jul 01, 17:00 EUR Unem­ploy­ment Rate
• Jul 01, 20:30 USD Ini­tial Job­less Claims
• Jul 01, 21:45 USD Mark­it Man­u­fac­tur­ing PMI
• Jul 02, 03:00 GBP BoE’s Gov­er­nor Bai­ley speech
• Jul 02, 20:30 USD Non­farm Payrolls

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 15677.71
• D1-C‑S 15628.40

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 15606.96
• W1-C‑D 15401.45

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Week­ly Focus Points
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
  • Focus on tak­ing ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be tak­en on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day.
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Buffer trades (prof­it tar­get >1R) are allowed and encouraged
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
  • No social media / mes­sen­ger apps / phone calls allowed dur­ing the trad­ing window
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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