DAX 2021 Week 34 Trading Plan

21 Aug DAX 2021 Week 34 Trading Plan

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This is my week­ly out­look on DAX. The lev­els that I will be look­ing at with a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Bullish

• Last month ducked below the pre­vi­ous month’s low to then close as a near-Doji with long buy­ing wick (Drag­on­fly doji). Sell­ing wick not mak­ing a HH. Some slow-down through a poten­tial base but need anoth­er month to con­firm or reject. 
• Price trad­ing above last month’s body and out­side range pos­si­bly devel­op­ing a MN RBR

Week­ly — Neutral

• Last week failed to make a HH and closed as a Bear­ish Inside Bar although weak­ened by the long buy­ing wick react­ing off a pull­back to W1 VWAP in UT coin­cid­ing with W1-C‑D 15660.10

Dai­ly — Neutral

• D1 DBD with long buy­ing wick to Inside Bar with long buy­ing wick react­ing off D1 VWAP

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Slight­ly Bullish

• All-time high made on MN and is cur­rent­ly trad­ing above last month’s body and range pos­si­ble form­ing a RBR.
• Price saw some Risk-Off trad­ing in prepa­ra­tion for ECB rate deci­sion so most like­ly the sen­ti­ment remains bull­ish. Based on price action it is not as clear-cut and thus more infor­ma­tion is needed.
• D1 is show­ing long buy­ing wicks although no com­plete price action for­ma­tion to con­firm the upward bias as of yet. The cur­rent Inside Bar could poten­tial­ly turn into D1 Three Inside Up or poten­tial­ly anoth­er base drop. If price reach­es D1-C‑S 15887.25 Base lev­el we’d have the bull­ish nar­ra­tive strengthened. 

Addi­tion­al notes

• Aug 27, 22:00, USD, Fed’s Chair Pow­ell speech

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 15966.51
• D1-C‑S 15887.25 Base

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 15660.10
• D1-C‑D 15547.73

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Week­ly Focus Points
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
  • Focus on tak­ing ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be tak­en on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day.
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Buffer trades (prof­it tar­get >1R) are allowed and encouraged
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
  • No social media / mes­sen­ger apps / phone calls allowed dur­ing the trad­ing window
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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