23 Apr DAX 2022 Week 17 Trading Plan
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This is my weekly outlook on DAX. The levels that I will be looking at with a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out.
Monthly — Bearish
- Last month made a LL but closed as an Inside Bar with very long buying wick reacting off MN QLo and MN-C‑D 12765.57
- Price trading below last month’s body but within range
Weekly — Bearish
- Price tested newly formed W1-C‑S 14351.53 and closed down leaving a longer selling wick
- Price failed to make a LL
- Price coming from W1 QLo rejection
Daily — Bearish
- D1 Three Outside Down rejecting D1 QHi closing within D1-C‑D 14080.19
- Possible D1 Phase 1 / 3
- Price trading around D1 50MA in DT
Sentiment summary — Bearish
- MN is possibly developing a MN DBD, although the long buying wick could push price higher forming a consolidation or even a Morning Star. One week left in the month.
- W1 consolidation and break down with last week closing lower although not breaking the range. Furthermore, W1 QLo got rejected through a V‑shaped correction.
- D1 Three Outside Down closing within D1 demand although not clearing the range. A retracement to newly formed D1 Supply (coinciding with W1 Supply) could negate the Bearish thesis as momentum down could be more probable.
- Blackswan event
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- No momentum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
- No early exits, either hit SL or target
- Use SL scaling in case the profit target for the setup doesn’t provide 2R for example for FA or VAA setups
- Risk Management
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING