30 Apr DAX 2022 Week 18 Trading Plan
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This is my weekly outlook on DAX. The levels that I will be looking at with a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out.
Monthly — Bearish
- MN-C‑S 14329.95 DBD, if price retraces to newly formed Supply price could see a continuation higher negating the bearish sentiment
- MN QLo tested
Weekly — Bearish
- Price closed down but with longer buying wick testing W1-C‑D 13678.69 Three Outside Up could see continuation down
- For a Bullish Thesis price would have to close within or better yet take out W1 Supply
- W1 QLo rejected
Daily — Bearish
- D1-C‑D 13834.39 Three Outside Up at D1 QLo with no continuation, instead a D1 Bearish Inside Bar with longer selling wick (reacting off D1 VWAP)
- If price tests newly formed demand it could see a further continuation down
Sentiment summary — Bearish
- Even though MN formed a DBD it failed to close confidently bearish. A retracement could negate a bearish sentiment.
- W1 retraced to newly formed demand (created through Three Outside Up) and could see continuation down although started reacting.
- D1 closed as a Bearish Inside Bar following a momentum pattern in the Three Outside Up. No full retracement to newly formed demand (yet) though.
- Blackswan event
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- No momentum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
- No early exits, either hit SL or target
- Use SL scaling in case the profit target for the setup doesn’t provide 2R for example for FA or VAA setups
- Risk Management
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING