DAX 2022 Week 31 Trading Plan - Bear Market Trader
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DAX 2022 Week 31 Trading Plan

#Fin­twit #DAX #DE30Cash #Mar­ket­Pro­file #Order­flow

This is my week­ly out­look on DAX. The lev­els that I will be look­ing at with a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Bullish

  • Last month closed as an Inside Bar react­ing off MN-C‑D 12761.56 and MN QLo
  • Con­jec­ture: Last month did not ful­ly retrace back to the 50% mark of the pre­vi­ous body and as it is an Inside bar MN QLo has not tech­ni­cal­ly been reject­ed. Although price could devel­op a MN Three Out­side Up and if price returns to MN-C‑D 14000 BASE it can fur­ther sug­gest a con­tin­u­a­tion high­er to orig­i­nat­ing lev­el of MN-C‑S 15238.66. 
    • How­ev­er, as the base lev­el is at a Round num­ber there could be more sell­ing com­ing in as it also coin­cides with a MN VWAP in UT CAR. 
    • A pos­si­ble devel­op­ment of a Three Out­side Up should see some momen­tum com­ing into the mar­ket. Although due to the larg­er time­frame this can be inter­est­ing to see how it devel­ops, if any. 

Week­ly — Bullish

  • W1 Con­sol­i­da­tion and break high­er (reject­ing W1 QLo) giv­ing W1-C‑D 12929.77 at round num­ber of 13000. Last week closed con­tin­u­ing high­er clos­ing near its high. 
  • W1 QLo shares the same lev­el as MN QLo
  • Con­jec­ture: Price is still trad­ing below W1 VWAP in DT and could see some reac­tion as the lev­el coin­cides with MN Sup­ply Base lev­el at the round num­ber of 14000. 

Dai­ly — Bullish

  • Arrival at D1 QHi and price con­sol­i­dat­ed before break­ing and clos­ing high­er with­in D1 QHi, D1-C‑S 13345.07
  • Price closed above D1 50MA in DT
  • Con­jec­ture: Price closed deep­er with­in D1 QHi, Sup­ply indi­cat­ing to poten­tial­ly take out these lev­els. Although D1 UKC in DT is right at the edge of this sup­ply and could see some reac­tion. Although with a larg­er time­frame momen­tum pos­si­bil­i­ty price could ignore this. Anoth­er pos­si­ble indi­ca­tion of this is the way price broke out from D1 VWAP in DT. 
    • Price trad­ing with­in D1 Sup­ply could see a reaction.

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Bullish

Addi­tion­al notes

  • Aug 05, USD, Non­farm Pay­rolls Pri­vate (Jul)

Focus Points for trad­ing development

  • Month­ly Goals
    • Use SL scaling


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