01 Aug GBPNZD 2021 Week 31 Trading Plan
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This is my weekly outlook on GBPNZD. The levels that I will be looking at with a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out.
Monthly — Bullish
- MN Three Inside Up with retest of newly formed C‑dem and closing higher after having made a HH closing within MN supply
- Trading mid swing after a MN QLo and Q1 QLo rejection
Weekly — Bullish
- W1 Three Inside Up at W1 demand (coinciding with W1 VWAP in UT) with slight reaction off W1-C‑S 2.0000 (round number)
- Trading mid swing after W1 QLo rejection
Daily — Bearish
- Multiple tests and rejections of D1 QHi without follow-through in line with larger timeframe bullish sentiment
- D1 Bear Engulf at W1-C‑S 2.00000 with no close below D1 QHi and no follow-through. Instead a possible base.
Sentiment summary — Bullish
- MN broke higher breaking high of September 2020 although supply of August 2020 not taken out (yet). Price tested this supply multiple times without much effort to move away from it so expectancy is for the supply to get taken out.
- W1 closed above the previous Phase 1 / 3 formation putting more bias towards a possible phase 1
- D1 formed a Bear Engulf but as this is at a W1 supply and round number some sell off should be expected. The week will show if there is a continuation to the move or not.
- Aug 05, 19:00, GBP, BoE Interest Rate Decision
- Aug 06, 20:30, USD, Nonfarm Payrolls
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- MN-C‑S 2.05903
- W1-C‑S 2.00000
ZOIs for Possible Long
- W1-C‑D 1.96800
- MN-C‑D 1.95263
- MN-C‑D 1.89782
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- No momentum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
- Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
- Weekly Goal
- Weekly Focus Points
- Min. 3 times working out at home + mandatory cardio
- Trading rules
- Focus on taking ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be taken on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium initiative activity day.
- Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
- M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
- Buffer trades (profit target >1R) are allowed and encouraged
- Use SL scaling in case the profit target for the setup doesn’t provide 2R for example for FA or VAA setups
- No social media / messenger apps / phone calls allowed during the trading window
- Weekly Focus Points
- Risk Management
- Without forcing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if possible 2.
- Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING