06 Feb GBPNZD Week 6 Trading Plan
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This is my weekly outlook on the Forex pair GBPNZD. Basically the levels that I will be looking at where it has a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and order flow through market profile. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out.
Monthly — Slightly Bullish
- Last month complete a Morning Star with a long buying wick although not closing far above MN-C‑D 1.89745 as there are still some sellers present
Weekly — Slightly Bearish
- Last week traded down as a slight Bear Engulf (and did not take out W1-C‑S 1.90661 but tested many times) but again a long buying wick was formed after testing underneath MN-C‑D 1.89745
- Failed to close above W1 QLo
Daily — Slightly Bullish
- D1 Bull Engulf formed (giving D1-C‑D 1.89878) with no follow-through. Instead reacting off D1-C‑S 1.91538 and closing as an Inside Bar with long selling wick. We’d need another day’s close to get a better directional confirmation.
- Price has not yet reached D1 QHi.
H4 — Slightly Bearish
- A RBR into overhead supply failed to push higher forming a Bear Engulf giving new H4-C‑S 1.91149 (rejecting H4 QHi) and consequently formed a slight push lower.
Market Profile — Imbalance
- A large value area was created at a 2‑day bracket indicating a possible pickup on a change of sentiment on larger time frame. After which price climbed higher forming a somewhat wide value area again at H4 QHi.
Sentiment summary — Slight Imbalance
- Price has not yet reached D1 QHi so there is room for more upside. In case price does reaches this level it would have taken out W1 supply indicating a higher likelihood of a sentiment change to a bullish trend. However, medium timeframe is indicating a potential balancing first before committing to a directional bias.
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- D1-C‑S 1.91538
- W1-C‑S 1.90661
ZOIs for Possible Long
- D1-C‑D 1.89878
- MN-C‑D 1.89745
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- Continue tracking my DRC tracking sheet
- Focus on my own progress and less on others
- Feeling okay with NOT trading
- Have ‘quieter’ weekends
- Weekly Goal
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym + mandatory cardio
- Trading Rules
- Trade from D and upwards unless a possible momentum trade, value acceptance or otherwise.
- Risk Management
- 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
- Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING